Member Info for jdt1990

Back to ODX you go....time will tell

Delivery
01 Feb 2021 to 01 Feb 2023
Deadline
07 Dec 2020 00:00

For LFT that deadline would give us another month to have tech transfer done, pilot batches ready for validation and possibly validation completed or close to? I guess it depends what has been going on behind the scenes as to whether that is possible.
Delivery then gives us a couple of months for scale up and mass production. Again, assuming the ducks have been lining up behind the scenes, there's a chance we could make those timelines.

For BAMS, surely we'd be in with a good shot on getting a slice of that by Dec?

The USP (not UPS they do deliveries) of Affimers is actually how quick they are to produce and their ability to be done so for a range of viruses and applications. I.e the deepverge sh*t test, they aren’t just going on a LFT, they are multi purpose both in format and application. It’s a brilliant model, we’ll create the affimers for businesses to buy it’s irrelevant in what format they are used. Gives them longevity outside of COViD and who knows when we’re going to need an LFT for the next pandemic, rustle up a few affimers in a month and simply rinse repeat.
Back over to ODX you go - another swing and a miss from MB.

Yeah because they got inside info to sell out quick before a placing - very good jester living up to your name. That would be illegal

But we knew that right? Hence why they are using Innova for the Liverpool trial.
Avct haven’t got a pilot batch to be validated yet so that statement just says they haven’t seen Avcts yet not that Avct is included in the list of not good enough tests

It's been imminent for months now so I do hope there is something brewing. The silence is odd so fingers crossed an updated resource comes with it!

From seeing some of the responses (on Twitter but that's where you find the Average Joe's opinion) to that news I don't know if they will get a high take up rate initially. I quote:
"Why would you test people who have no symptoms of any illness? That doesn't make sense."
"EVERYONE ! PREPARE YOUR LIABILITY DOCUMENT AND KEEP IT WITH YOU"
"You don’t need a test without symptoms unless of course you want to inflate your numbers"

There's clearly a gap in the general knowledge of how asymptomatic people are the main spreaders of this virus. People seem to be thinking the army are going to be dragging them from their homes to have a test, the govt are using inaccurate tests (sort of true right now and from China not great PR) to then generate a bunch false positives, inflate the numbers of people with the virus and promote another lockdown.

I get why people are disenfranchised with the way this has been handled, its been diabolical in parts but I do feel as you said oxgden, that although mass testing is clearly the way out of this mess, a lot of the general public have lost so much faith in what they are told buy the govt, they simply won't do it.

SO we need a more accurate test from a reliable business (hopefully that is Avct) but there needs to be some widespread education from a reputable non Govt source that shows why mass testing of asymptomatic people is key and it isn't a ploy to lock them up forever

Sadly yet again anyone who thought "a few" meant 3 ish weeks in LC's world was barking up the wrong tree. We're now 5 weeks down the line and still no sign of anything. Bu that's not a shock.
Sorry state of affairs when everyone is just accepting that LC and KIBO have never hit a timeline or delivered a thing. I think even LC now believes his own BS. He also has his favorite excuse of Covid to fall back on and luckily for him has meant AGM's are held behind closed doors, otherwise I would be attending and asking some questions.
Oh and Kiwi - thanks for the updates on SP and trades, we can see those though.....

Sorry, I know, was just a bit of an off the cuff response reading some of the comments on that twitter thread. Which are quite scary...
Although, what I would say is the big theme of the "conspiracy theorists" ion there is that they think they are being forced to take poor performing tests (7% FPR) ironically ordered from China that wont help the cause, which will give false positives and bolster numbers to back further lockdowns.
Now lets just hope AVCT can get the highly specific test required and maybe then some of the conspiracy can be quashed.

A reply to that post on twitter:

"Why would you test people who have no symptoms of any illness? That doesn't make sense."

Answers why we're in this mess really doesn't it. The I don't feel ill so I'll go do what I want brigade....

Now I do agree with that Sagetrade:
"They will miss the boat if the prototype design cannot be turned into an effectively manufactured mass testing tool"
There is always a risk this whole design process falls at the final hurdle and just don't have a viable test to mass produce.

However, my objection was to the below comment:
"Regardless of your thoughts on how long covid testing will be needed, time IS a limiting factor, and Avacta are in danger of missing the boat here."
Time isn't as much of a limiting factor as you think. Lets just say we had a test today that is viable but cannot be mass produced and can only produce a fraction of what is required. Why spend the time and effort getting that up and running for small scale sales. It is the tech transfer / validation / production scale up that is limitng.
The opportunity cost in the long run of not being able to sell this on a small scale will be insignificant relative to the longer term sale once we can mass produce.
Testing needs wont go away once a vaccine comes out and we will be able to sell every test we produce for at least 2021 I would imagine.

Yes agreed the current SP is definitely being priced based solely on the LFT outcome and the Covid chaser comment wasn't aimed at you personally, it was a general comment around the number of people on this bb shouting for "We need an update" "Where is the test" "Why no news I'm going to email AS". Delays are inevitable in this industry and current climate and that needs to be factored in to any investment decision.

Ahh Sagetrade is back - must be a blue day ahead here (and hopefully in the US this evening).
Just explain to me how AVCT are in danger of missing the boat? We know there are two factors that would cause this:

1. A vaccine which is made in enough scale to vaccinate all and deemed safe enough (both medically and in the public perception to be taken by the masses). This isn't anywhere close.
2. A competitor with a rapid antigen saliva LFT comes to market ahead of us and takes all the possible sales. Again not a chance, we know of very few direct competitors in this space so the demand will hugely outweigh supply. New players in this space will have to jump through all the same hoops as AVCT to get a test to market so will be wayy back in the queue.
Not to mention there are only so many manufacturers for these tests so the competition can only be finite.

I will absolutely agree that if we had this test out in Aug/Sep/Oct of course revenues would have been higher. However, the demand will still be huge if it comes out in Dec/Jan. This is the only way out of this mess short term and that has been widely publicised.

WOuld AS continue focusing the efforts of a business that never set out to do Covid antigen LFT testing on something that was a dead duck and never get off the ground? I doubt it.

The reputational damage to the company (especially being in the pharma space) long term would be catastrophic if this test came out sub standard. The govt also have to make sure its right after all the recent testing scandals. Avct do not want to be caught up in any of that.

Yes the delays are annoying for everyone in the UK really as we are in another lockdown. I'm also sure it is frustrating for Covid stock chasers who over bought in here at £2 plus and got spiked thinking they would have 100% profit in a day. For LTHs this was never the end goal of the business, the therapeutics and general showcasing of how Affimers can be used across the industry are the big goals.

The delays are what they are, I am confident it is not Avct behind them but 3rd parties hence why I continue to hold. If you can't wait, sell up and chase a few quid elsewhere. If you can't sell up, take a good look at your risk tolerances when you invest.

All the signs seem to be pointing to this not being AVCT but quite possibly an effort to trial out the logistics for mass testing using “sub standard” tests to ensure that when the gold standard one is ready, it can be rolled out on mass quickly and effectively without the need to do all the “how do we organise this” work.

Doesn't need to formulate it, its already been printed - Covid.
Zero surprise we didn't see anything this morning.

Amateur - fully agree and let’s be honest it hasn’t exactly gone well for all the “first to market” companies before us has it. Riddled with underhand contracts, poor performance and whatever else.
AS wants to run a business that keeps its integrity no matter how many impatient PIs cry for their 5000% return and a test by last week. The company was never set up to create COViD antigen tests and I’d be ****ed off as a LTH if he crippled the reputation of what could be a revolutionary cancer drug hurrying a test to market to keep a few rainbow chasers happy.
Not sure the slogan “you’re less invasive chemo treatment From the producers of a bang average LFT COViD test” really fits the bill does it.

PROP you’re FOS! If you had a meeting with the boooo boys tomorrow which clearly you don’t, anything that came from that worth posting on a bb would need to be RNSd or you’d be on the hook for insider trading and if not, it wouldn’t be worth us knowing. I smell a rat here....

It’s a good point with regards to any assets we have that aren’t in near term focus. Which may be quite a few if Paterson ends up being a mini gold rush and all attention is focused there. The licenses must have an expiration - I don’t know what they cost to renew but the last thing you would want is them to expire. Would anyone buy them with no drilling at all? Maybe a jv to fast track is a goodnidea

Well that’s another “competitor” bites the dust. Avct will be the only one left in the game at this rate and all the “we need this test last week” brigade will scurry off when it’s finally proved it’s not first to market but best to market

Bitcoin will no doubt see a real surge in popularity and value I believe over the next 12 months. Moving to a cashless society, devaluation of the dollar, economic fallout from this pandemic. Not to mention the average joe trying their hand at “trading” Crypto to either earn a few quid of simply have something to do. MODE could be a bit of a dark horse too. Some solid investments from Vela as far as I can see.
With the economic backdrop there’ll be bumps but I feel they’ve times this impeccably!

Just need this damn EP! Where is it.....??