Member Info for jc_123

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Wasn’t a lot to miss. They basically said read the broker’s note. Twats…

* I mean if they want western companies to invest in Kurditstan, KRG can't go about ignoring judgements issued against them. Adhering to an International Court of Arbitration is fundamental to FDI

I suppose if they want any western companies to invest in KRG, they can't go about knocking debtors...

Two questions spring to mind.

1) If there is no chance of KRG paying up, why proceed with the arbitration?

2) From KRG's perspective, if they can't / won't pay, why not just save legal costs and roll over now?

I suspect greater legal minds than ours have come to the conclusion that an award is enforceable, otherwise the whole process is a waste of time and money for both sides

Supposedly June / July

You are correct Steve. And after listening to Horta rambling on HARDtalk, you can see how they got into this mess…

As much as I’d love the next RNS to be the big one, I suspect we have a couple of inconsequential ones to digest first. The next one will probably be confirmation of receipt of $1M for past expenses and the one after that will probably be to do with the environmental permits. I’d imagine any form of funding or JV will be contingent on obtaining environmental green lights. I’m sure they are a formality, but if they involve public consultation, they’ll take time…

* green light 🤣

I’m pretty sure the money was borrowed from the petroleum fund, so I’d imagine the deadline could be extended. That said you’d have thought I’d would be a political disaster if they did extend. There will be politicians in TL whose future relies on Timor Gap’s massive investments succeeding, so compromises maybe made to meet the deadline ie green slight FLNG at Chuditch

FCFY - you appear to have a more detailed knowledge of the history of BB/Miran than I do.

At the end of the day it is for the arbitration court to decide, unless of course KRG fold. The case is due to start on 19th, so we'll have to wait and see if they do or not.

I suspect the ace up Genel's sleeve is KRG's incompetence and corruption in pulling the PSC. If the judgement is in our favour, we can all speculate how large the award should be, however it doesn't get away from the question of how/when KRG/FGI would be able to pay. Unless of course the Russians or Chinese are waiting in the background with their chequebooks.

It would have taken billions to develop those gas fields. It is highly unlikely Genel could have done so on its own. I suspect part of the reason for KRG canceling the PSC was that it wanted a bigger operator with deeper pockets who could develop the fields quicker than Genel ever could. All this is now irrelevant of course. I was thinking about this this morning and wondered if there is any chance of KRG attempting to settle this early?

Boil won't be bought out. They might sell Chuditch, by selling the holding company Sundagas. If that happens I would expect a large special dividend - the size of this would depend on how much they sell Sundagas for and how much they decide to retain to invest in future projects.

At the end of the day, if you're in this share waiting for Chuditch to be sold, daily SP movements are irrelevant. If the asset is sold, you'll wake up one morning to a huge special dividend and will wonder why you spent the previous couple of years stressing about the SP.

No

What on earth are you on about? Crawl back under your stone please.

Well after months of waiting Boil has finally gone into labour with this first contraction. Hopefully the next one will arrive quicker than the last

I've been in this share for longer than I care to admit, and bottom drawered it when the pipeline shut thinking that I'll stay invested and hold out for Somaliland and the arbitration case. The worry for me re arbitration is how on earth KRG will be able to cough up if they lose. When Dana won their case in 2017, KRGs finances were more robust than now and they had the luxury of direct oil revenues, which they no longer have. I wonder if there's any way the responsibility for paying any potential future claim could end up in the lap of the Iraqi government?

I realise the answer to this question may be "how long is a piece of string?", but does anyone have an educated guess as to how long the arbitration process could take? ie until a judgement is issued. Are we talking weeks or months?

Assuming we get a free carry on drill costs, that paltry $1M together with the return of our $1M bank guarantee when drilling starts, could mean no further raises for the foreseeable future 🤞