focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I thought before the presentation that it would be sh*t, but by the end thought it was OK.
Having a half billion war chest is a nice position to be in and it seems they are trying their hardest not to spray it up the wall.
I get the distinct impression that they are effectively managing an exit from Kurdistan - no more new projects there, running down existing fields, maximising cashflow from Tawke (which thank god is operated by DNO).
Slightly disappointed that Somaliland timeline has slipped to back end of next year and feel they're almost downplaying how big a deal it could be. They were being much more upbeat and describing it as the 'crown jewel' in the portfolio a couple of presentations ago - maybe they're concerned about stirring up more trouble with Somalia and are trying to keep a low profile.
The election is 10 weeks away. As is always the case, politics will no doubt influence the timing of any Greater Sunrise announcement. The whole Tasi Mane project (including Beaco) is Gusmao's baby, so could be announced shortly before the election to boost his chances, or after the election so he can wallow in the glory of delivering Greater Sunrise as the newly appointed PM. Either way, it fits in with Andy Yeo saying BOIL will go back to Chuditch funding partners in June.
Passiton - what are your thoughts on Yeo's June comment??
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/gusmao-alkatiri-greater-sunrise-timor-leste-calls-parliamentary-election
Timor GAP might need to sell their stake - they borrowed around $600m from the state oil fund to buy into the Greater Sunrise JV. This needs paying back, so they might decide to sell up. TL will already be making a lot from the fiscal proceeds of the PSC...
Howey, I've been invested in Boil for a couple of years now, and I've not seen this level of activity / announcements / background noise re Greater Sunrise before. If TL want to secure their future, they need all their gas out of the ground before 2050. Time is running out for them and they know it. Australia (and the West) don't wan the Chinese getting involved, so they have to help TL fulfil their aims. Greater Sunrise (and Chuditch) will happen sooner or later...
One day we are going to wake up to joint statement by the Greater Sunrise JV saying they've agreed a route for the pipeline. That day is likely to be within the next 6 months. That day is when the fun starts...
Basically for those with short attention spans, this is a speech by the Australian Minister for Resources, who personally welcomes the TL delegation -
"And I would like to welcome Timorese visitors attending the conference as part of the Timor-Leste Australia LNG Partnership. Greater Sunrise is an unmissable, nation-building project and we need to make every effort to ensure it proceeds for the benefit of all. "
She then goes on the highlight the vital importance of gas in the energy transition and CCS. Basically I cannot stress the significance of what she is saying...
https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/king/speeches/speech-aog-energy-conference-perth
The Head of State of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, immediately instructed his Ambassador in Jakarta, to soon come to Timor-Leste to see and talk and seek bilateral relations and cooperation to consider the possibility of any investment from Azerbaijan in Timor-Leste.
"The things I as the Head of State explained to them that Timor-Leste is most interested in drawing the pipeline from the greater sunrise to the dry land of Timor-Leste, and the government is interested in seeking investors to participate in a large investment to draw the pipeline and that Azerbaijan takes into account this and will explore the possibilities through the study that will be done in Timor-Leste," said the President of the Republic Jose Ramos-Horta to journalists after returning to Timor-Leste at the President Nicolau Lobato International Airport, Dili, Sunday (12 / 03 / 2023).
The Head of State added that Azerbaijan is committed and intended to invest in Timor-Leste but will consider and study all the possibilities to start investing in Timor-Leste.
Ramos-Horta also informed Azerbaijan that Timor-Leste intends to join ASEAN and needs more investment in the area of tourism to build hotels, as Timor-Leste will need more hotel levels as well as convention centres and airlines and tourism.
"Azerbaijan is interested in investing in other countries because they have a sovereign fund and apply it to overseas investigations so that they can come to study the situation in Timor-Leste and make decisions," Ramos-Horta stressed.
The Head of State also informed about the state journey and the participation of the World Summit of the Least Development Country (LDC), which was invited by the UN Secretary-General, along with the great king of Qatar.
https://www.hatutan.com/2023/03/12/azerbaijaun-hakarak-partisipaiiha-investimentu-dada-pipeline-greater-sunrise-mai-timor-leste/
Hatutan.com, (12 March 2023), Dili
Azerbain intends to participate in the investment to draw the pipeline from the greater sunrise to dry land in Timor-Leste and will continue to study to invest in the tourism and hotel sectors.
The arrival of Azerbaijan was expressed directly by the Head of Government and the Head of State of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, when he met with the President of the Republic, Jose Ramos-Horta during the visit of the Head of State of Timor-Leste to Azerbaijan.
Well, believe it or not, but KRG apparently did cough up when Dana took them to arbitration a few years ago...
Whether it has all been finally paid I'm not sure, but $1bn was paid up front, the rest taken from oil revenues...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-dana-gas-arbitration-idUSKCN1BA272
https://www.danagas.com/operations/kri/settlement/
"The London-seated international arbitration regarding Genel’s claim for substantial compensation from the KRG following the termination of the Miran and Bina Bawi PSCs is progressing. Written submissions have been made to the tribunal and the trial has now been scheduled for February 2024"
Anyone know once this gets to trial, how long the actual trial takes? Are we talking weeks or months?
Also, any ideas how much we're attempting to claim? Bill Higgs said in an InvestorMeet Q&A's that they'd spend $1.4bn on BB & Miran - am I dreaming that this is the figure we might be going for??
I suspect Timor Resources (Aussie company) are at fault - the PSC terms will be crystal clear. Timor Leste have successfully worked with western oil companies in the past - Bayu Undan made billions for all parties involved. So, reading between the lines, Timor Resources are short of cash (they are a minnow) and want Timor GAP to help fund the drills, and TG quite rightly are saying "no, your problem, go sort..."