Member Info for JC01

Historically questions on here asked why aren’t Msnagement buying shares at such low levels ?

Free shares answers that question 😂. No need to put their own cash at risk .

Good evening gentlemen.

Golf today in the glorious sunshine. Just catching up on today’s commentary. Good to see positivity on the whole and the SP moving higher. Congrats to all on the short term trades.

Agree with Terry Management free shares based on what metrics ? No indication of how measured or what was achieved ?

Once again a miserable buy back program lacking commitment . On the conference call , when questioned, stated would be the same percentage as last year ie 10%. So what do they propose . Max 6%. This is just window dressing lacking any real commitment. I’d rather they cut the 🐂💩 on buy backs and say any excess cash will either go towards a special divi or acquisition cash. It will do nothing for the SP unless the full amount is utilised.

Jim,

I believe the jury has been out for a very long time already , and is going to be , on this SP catching up with it ‘s true value all the time Hutson just keeps on acquiring through equity and debt. This strategy , whilst so called accretive, has destroyed the SP. Hutson talks about the mismatch of the SP to NAV but his actions are the opposite. No bold strategic measurable initiatives detailing specifically how he is going to improve the SP. But on the conference call he was at pains to name it clear we’re gonna keep on acquiring. Because that’s what we do 🙈

Seeking Alpha. Not so positive . Wait and see

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4768674-diversified-energy-incredible-growth-potential-maverick-acquisition-uncertainty-ahead?mailingid=39065689&messageid=2800&serial=39065689.689&source=email_2800&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=39065689.689

Stifel another House Broker hyping it up today

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1068170/diversified-energy-company-tailwinds-tipped-to-drive-a-re-rating-say-city-analysts-1068170.html

Jim,

I’ve been out enjoying the sun today playing golf. Not ruminating about DEC as you suggested. Just caught up with your discussion with Terry.

Correct me if I’m wrong but your position is that profitability is more important than the SP and not to worry as over time eventually the SP will catch up. Terry and myself believe the SP is important as we invest on the premise that our investment will increase in value either by a higher SP , dividend or a combination of both. Isn’t that what investing is all about. It’s not to lose money either physically or on paper. Isn’t that why investors try to buy low and sell higher. Why would any investor accept their investment declining ? Since 2020 SP is down 60%. This year alone it’s down 24%. Why do analysts attempt to predict a company's financial situation and stock price which can influence investor sentiment and stock price movements ? Why do the house brokers constantly hype DEC as a buy with ridiculously high SP valuations?

If not to promote the share as a good investment for SP appreciation.

I am fully on board that the Maverick deal will bring significantly higher profits and hopefully a significant re-rate. However , what is the point in investing in DEC if these accretive deals are never allowed to shine through to an increasing SP because all Hutson keeps doing is using the equity honeypot to dilute the SP and run up more debt. When does the SP ever get a chance to recover and re-rate ?

My views purely on the basis of healthy discussion on this board and always welcome differing opinions 👍☀️

Terry,

Sadly I’m with you. My very worst investment.

The market sees right through Hutson’s strategy and has done , and will continue to do so , for a long time. Hutson is not creating shareholder value , in fact destroying it, and continues to state publicly acquisitions acquisitions acquisitions. This can only be a short term trade. Any increase will get sold into. If SP gets ahead of itself and Geopolitical shocks return/ HH drops the shorts will return. The bigger it gets the more risks.

terry,

and there lies the never ending lunacy.

all these deals funded by equity and debt. very little cash if any. east texas, fund raise and maverick just under 33m new shares issued raising 510m and higher debt. east texas lock in 6 months , expires april, just under 2.5m shares. fund raise and maverick priced at $14.50 and $16.43 respectively with a third available for sale at 6,9 and 12 months. maverick gonna have to hang in there getting a 7% divi for a while.

long term holders ****ed. keep trading the highs and lows but any sp strength will get sold into. gl all

Worya,

Tx.

Apols I read it wrong. Easily done 🙈

Worya,

Also I thought I did read somewhere that the maverick deal had some drilling benefits/ drilling company.

I am likely to be mistaken and it's just continuation of previous joint ventures, happy to be corrected

With respect do you not read messages. I was trying to help when I replied at 14.06 with RNS info etc . Maybe I’m just wasting my time trying to contribute 🙈

Worya,

Absolutely all adds value and I’m all for that.

I was only adding a word of caution as I’ve seen the so called synergies , add ons and SP disconnect get hyped by Hutson so many times and he constantly underachieves on the expectations investors build up. We’ve already seen it on buy back expectation for the next 12 months which I hate to say will be a damp squib. Again I hope I’m wrong. The Hutson leopard most definitely doesn’t change its spots 😳

Broomtree,

Bob Hope and No Hope with Hutson 🙈

Worya,

They didn’t acquire an in house drilling team. Development will be by established JV’s already working with Maverick as well as utilising their expertise. DEC are not oil developers and never will be. Any organic development will be complimentary. leveraging the land asset base. These JV’s will create added value not a core strategy. Hutson made it clear on the conference call they are all about acquiring accretive acquisitions and nothing is going to change.

Just a word of caution reading too much into what Hutson says. For years we have heard from him about synergies, land sales , coal methane, LVL , buy backs etc etc. All very nice and add to the bottom line. But core strategy is acquiring assets. From the Maverick acquisition RNS :-

Maverick adds Multi-Basin Exposure and Scale: Combination enhances position in core geographies across Appalachia, the Western Anadarko, Permian, Barnett, and Ark-La-Tex regions, with commodity product diversification, including beneficial exposure to oil markets, to create a more resilient market cycle risk profile and more durable revenue. This multi-basin scale also provides capital investment optionality for organic growth by acquisition or growth by high returns joint venture partnership development projects.

Broomtree,

If you’d read my reply it would have saved you the bother of responding 😂

Mulder

Up to 20% of share capital to be bought back

Large buy back programme coming.

This is misleading. Did you listen in to the conference call ? I did . They have bought back 3% of the authorised 10% leaving 7% from last April’s AGM approval. Hutson made it clear the 10% is what they would probably request authorisation this April and leave it at that. Highly unlikely any buy backs between now and the next AGM and any unused doesn’t roll over.

So at best the most bought back next 12 months is 10% and we know what Hutson’s track record is like on share buy backs. Apathetic at best in dribs and drabs achieving nothing. He needs to get serious on this matter with a very active transparent consistent buy back programme. Another half hearted effort will just be a waste of cash. Again time will tell but don’t hold your breath for anything straight away .

Again I hope I’m proven wrong.

Trek,

And long may it continue.

I listened in to the conference call.

Usual usual. Acknowledgement of the SP mismatch but all down to factors outside of their control. !! They will work to rerate by leveraging the underdeveloped land mass by production, land sales and buy backs primarily whilst continuing smarter asset management etc etc. They anticipate getting approval for up to 10% of existing shares for buy backs in April which was the same level as last year which still has not been exhausted. Their buy back programme to date is utterly miserable imo. Hopefully that improves. Clearly stated Dividend is locked at $1.16 beyond the 3 years and easily maintained in their opinion. Hutson emphasised Accretive Acquisitions is their lifeblood and that will strategically not change .

Hutson et al very robotic in their presentation style . Operationally they know their business and are excellent at it. GSD (Get Stuff Done) is their mantra. US exposure clearly working well for raising finance . Huge opportunities to close the share mismatch that are trading at a substantial discount to net asset value.

Hopefully they can pull it off. Time will tell. GL to all with your trading strategies.

Jim,

Yes an interesting debate but as you say neither are exclusive. One should not be sacrificed for the other especially when you are the CEO of a Publicly Quoted Company.

A CEO's primary responsibility to shareholders, while not a legal obligation, is to act in the best interests of the company, aiming to maximize shareholder value and ensure the company's long-term success, while also considering broader stakeholder interests.

CEOs are expected to drive profitability, improve share prices, and enhance the overall value of the company, which benefits shareholders. Improving it from a historical low is no measurement when caused by mismanagement, poor comms and dilution.

So yes an argument can be made Hutson is positioning DEC for longer term growth and profitability. I welcome that. Sadly the Comms do not reflect any kind of acknowledgement of the dismal SP destruction and as one of their key measurements they are going to improve shareholder value and how they will measure it strategically. At current levels a dividend in excess of 10% isn’t a key measurement of that value or why you would invest in this business.

You only have to look at why very large constituents of the FTSE are leaving because the SP isn’t reflective of the business. Active investors push for strategic change to improve a languishing SP. Just a couple of examples why SP improvement is important and why I believe Hutson should be held more accountable by the BOD and Investors. Trouble is he still runs it as his own private empire able to do what he wants . And we know what eventually happened to Caesar and the Roman Empire.

I truly hope he turns it around but the proof will be in the SP pudding for me. I welcome the discussion which is what this board should be for 👍

Sadly have to agree Terry.

If only £14 what was the point of the deal then.

If I was Maverick’s owner EIG ,Rick Gideon ,the former MD of Maverick , now COO of Dec I would have his one and only target for the next 12 months is to get the Share Price back to over $16 where they got the shares at.

Terry,

The usual smoke and mirrors and all will be glossed over by the Maverick deal.

If there isn’t some kind of US help on the SP then we’re languishing here for months and years. Unless this SP gets to at least £17 what was the point of doing the deal. Then we can judge how transformational it was. Otherwise it’s just another Hutson vanity project.

Asp1

Sounds like we’re in the same boat.

I was for a long time a supporter of Hutson’s strategy hence why I have a lot of money invested and still nursing large paper capital losses albeit some mitigation by the dividend. Hanging in hoping for gas prices to rise, US election etc etc.

I initially was a cheerleader for the Maverick deal which initially sounded like a well managed thought through with patient negotiations to get a transformational deal to rerate and kick on from £14 SP helped by the Trump bump. Sadly we then get all the shenanigans , SP collapse , calamitous equity raise and market uncertainty. The PR communication is shambolic and even more frustrating is the lack of recognition how badly the SP has slumped and what they are going to do to address it. Or is it let the SP rise again then we do another deal with equity raise and dilute the SP and the madness continues and all the advisors have their snouts in the fee trough.

I’m ever hopeful to get a re-rate and get out. GL to all buying in now with profits and dividends to be had.