Member Info for Jasper13

NickNorth....

Yes I was quite pleased he re-tweeted that one of mine. :-)

Gordon…. No idea about Republic, buy, sell, participate, hold. Who knows. They’ve been around OILEX for a very long time and I suspect are the ‘go to’ participant for placings. Something must be working for them.

I think we’ll see more interest on production announcement, might get a spike as well. I’m hoping we start to get some more institutional interest which will put the shares in more sticky hands. My .48p target is purely driven by what I believe to be a more realistic market capital, which based upon simple maths and economics is woefully short of where we should be.

We were at £14m market capital this time last year. Why and how? Look at where we are at today, just double the share price based upon the 100% Cambay ownership vs 45% ownership a year ago. Then add in some cash flow for production increasing the NPV. Gets us to £34m market capital quite easily I think.

There seems to be a strong sense of disappointment these past few days as to why we haven’t seen astronomical appreciation in the share price. A lot of theory for this is being pointed towards there still being an overhang of placing shares, but the bottom line with that is we really 100% do not know. Why? Well we don’t know who received the placing shares other than Republic, Novum and Lombard (detailed in the RNS’s) and we don’t know who has sold as the trades don’t go through with a shareholders name attached! So to me it’s all conjecture and finger in the air guessing, however wouldn’t surprise me if some have been sold by various placing participants. Overhang finished though? Come on we’ve no idea.

What we do know because we have been told is that environmental clearance has been given and this paves the way to imminent production commencement. So in my opinion we now need to trust the company to finalise whatever other protocols or requirements are needed and wait for the announcement that confirms all they have been telling us for weeks. Production has now commenced, quite simple really.

When it’s announced should it have an effect on the share price and ultimately the market capital? I think it should as it will send a resounding confirmation to the market that Oilex are now a PRODUCER which means they will then be generating revenue and cash. By my book that has to be reflected in the company’s value, so we should re-rate. I am sticking with .48p (£34m market capital) in the not too distant future.

As for a gut prediction of when we’ll have the gas taps switched on, I’m going to be positive and say I think it could still be this week. ??

Newbie I think you have got that wrong. I have never mentioned us being owed money from the GSPC. All the cash call money has been paid up and settled.

Gordon/JrLomax....other parts of the post.....

December recent quarterly report shows us last quarter expenses were AUD $ 1.09m (USD $763k), so USD $254k per month. I would expect these expenses to increase as we commence production so let’s assume these increase to USD$300k per month. Our adjusted contingency production income of USD$209k will cover 70% of our monthly expenses. Much better than today where we have no income whatsoever.

JrLomax ....

C73 and C77 producing 1mmscfd each could generate a combined revenue of approx $8600 per day based on the current off take agreement in place. So $261k per month. Let’s allow for some production down time and perhaps lower flow rates than anticipated and drop that figure by 20% as a contingency, still would generate us $209k per month.

Callum…. It’s good to share. Don’t be shy. :-)

Well that was day of two halves. From what seemed to be a positive RNS early doors, turned into panic selling and not the price action most would have thought based upon the positive news. Probably the wording of ‘subject to funding’ spooked a few, but in line with AIM protocol it had to be mentioned so as not to mislead. Cue the FUD brigade and that created a perfect storm for the MM’s to play havoc with the price.

I was one and am aware of others that reached out to our CEO and expressed disappointment at the market reaction, which was accepted but with a degree of ‘scratching the head.’ We then get environmental clearance posted on the ministerial website, and sentiment changes, followed by an RNS at the bell confirming the same. But not just confirming clearance, making the point very clearly that the company is fully funded for the re-frac and dismissing the narrative of imminent placings being spread across social media and forum platforms throughout the day. A stroke of touché or perhaps a bit more ‘have some of that!’ Now that will of no doubt caught some off guard and tomorrow could be very interesting.

But what next ……

We still have the following to come and these events will need to be announced to the market :

> production commencement - this week
> legal completion of the GSPC deal being concluded, with funds released from the escrow account - this week (I have pushed on this one, as felt it too important milestone to just be lost in todays proceedings.)
> refrac equipment tender completion - anytime soon
> refrac commencement on C77 - quarter 1
> UK CCS pre-FEED study results - anytime soon

Whilst the ‘bulls’ didn’t get their way as they wanted today, it’s probably fair to say that in all likelihood they may just when the above other news events break.

We are in re-rating mode in my opinion and have found a solid base at .24p to build on. I am still focused on the market capital vs the enterprise value, and on that basis am sticking with my number of .48p (£34m) in the not too distant future.

Don’t get hung up on ASX price action, it’s irrelevant. 90% + of the shares are held on AIM.

Conger …. I’m sticking with my .48p for starters. Simple maths double the market capital as we’ve doubled our ownership.

I did say :-)

Just to focus peoples minds in advance of next week, and to give some hopefully rationale perspective I thought I share the following.

Last week OEX shares opened at 0.19p giving a market cap of £13.5m. They closed at 0.24p giving a market cap of £17m, up 26.3% but only an increase in market cap of £3.5m.

1.1bn shares traded hands last week, that’s 15% of the shares in issue, suggesting a fair bit of interest.

But let’s look back….

Acquisition funding for the GSPC’s 55% was secured on 21st April 2021. Funding was secured at 0.238p when 5.644bn shares were in issue giving a market capital of £13.4m. Funny that as that’s what we were at the beginning of last week. Since April 21 OEX have ;

> gained GOI approval of the Cambay work programme and budget to deliver 1. Appraisal/development drilling programme 2. Recommencement of production of existing wells
> appointed a well management and services consortium for the refrac of existing wells and drilling of 2 new ones
> secured $2m of refrac funding to commence next month
> had the court order lifted to allow production commencement of 9 existing wells
> submitted a 300+ page environmental study, plus copious other documents for ministerial approval of a new environmental permit
> Appointed a new experienced CEO and CFO who have both become board directors
> commenced a scoping study of a CCS project in the UK, due any day
> applied for 2 depleted North Sea oil field licences for the CCS project
> tidied up other projects and tighten up their corporate fiduciary reporting

I think it’s fair to say they haven’t been sat idle for the past 9 months and next week will see MILESTONE news announced of environmental clearance, production commencement and GOI ratification of the GSPC deal.

The disconnect now between the real enterprise value and the £17m market cap is just ridiculous based on the above.

Simple maths double todays market cap based on the tangibles of owning 100% of the licence plus production. That starts to get more like it’s true enterprise value. I have a 0.48p (£34m m/c) target in the short term based upon these known tangibles, and genuinely think the market is waking up to these too.

But what if Oilex have already been sent the approval today via email? Everyone getting excited and refreshing the GOI system links provided. Thats just an admin job for the ministerial dept to finalise whenever they are ready.

AimingHigh...how you feeling now Hannay as posted that? Plus I have been saying since last week that clearance was granted.

Candi....click on the link, top right hand corner. Thats the naming convention of the ministerial department. LSE just spaced it out like that in my note. Not over exposed, calm and confident with what's going on.

Gordon....I have six figures invested, starting with a 2. I will leave no stone unturned and do whatever I deem necessary to find out information whether that be directly or indirectly from the company. I take my investment and run it like a business. I am constantly evaluating matters.

Gordon...great that you have written, and my understanding is that these get passed to Roland and he responds directly. I can assure everyone the BOD are immensely frustrated at the delays from the GOI and ministerial departments, however their hands are tied. It's just the nature of how the country operates. As investors we either have to accept that, frustrating as it is, or quite simply don't invest. I think the saying is "you make your choices."

http://environmentclearance.nic.in/onlinesearch_parivesh.aspx?pid=agendauploadEC&status=NA

Got to this link, have a read of all the document attachments. Will take you about 2-3 hours, I did. It's all in there.

Candi....where on earth have I said that?? I have laid it out so simply (Investing for Dummies) that all the company are waiting for is a letter from the committee meeting last week.

I have never read so much utter nonsense posted on here, including theories of under hand matters in play. Get a grip. We have RNS releases that detail exactly where the company are at. We have a CEO who by his very nature is incredibly approachable and if people bothered to try and engage with him, may even learn a thing or two.

We are waiting on a communication (yes a letter) from the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change
Government of India that will confirm that environmental clearance has been granted. Last week that clearance was given at a committee meeting, all available online , and verified to me 100% by the company to allow production commencement at Cambay following 3 years of wells being shut in. All ground works, maintenance, ties into the pipeline and required health & safety protocols have been completed so it is merely a waiting game for the letter to arrive.

Today the company have followed up last weeks committee meeting, and applied their own pressure, to get the letter turned around as soon as possible. And when I mean applied their own pressure, going above and beyond what is required.

Now if people bothered they could have been told that themselves had they had the "balls" to engage directly with the company. I do it because of my sizeable investment stake in here and my continued due diligence to ensure I am comfortable with still being invested.

We are on the cusp of a milestone announcement that PRODUCTION will be commencing, which will produce gas, tied into a major pipeline that in turn will generate cashflow. Does that not resonate positively will people? I have also previously stated what the company believe those production rates and cash flow numbers could look like.

Oilex anytime now starts to become a PRODUCER again and not some tin pot E&D outfit hoping to strike it lucky. For anyone that doesn't believe that, call the company, speak to our CEO and challenge him.