Member Info for Jasper13

Just some info on what to expect when they come on stream :

1. The less than optimal completion for C77 will be addressed after the refrac.
2. C77 experienced water loading previously (documented via RNS), this means after a period of sustained production reservoir pressure decreases which affects gas production. This is alleviated using velocity tubing.
3. Historical data shows C77 can produce c 500,000 scfd for a period of time before water loading.
4. C77 will require shut in until reservoir pressure builds again.
5. C77 will be placed on intermittent production.
6. Both wells have different well head pressures and therefore cannot co produce. Consequently production between the two wells will be cycled.
7. C73 has more consistent production potential than C77.

Hopefully the above explains why the new refrac methods are so crucial for proving up the field.

Bottom line is though due to a period of 3 year shut, no one really knows how the wells will perform although there is an expectation of previous flow data as per recent and older RNS’s. Plus a very strong possibility of an initial production spurt due to build up of reservoir pressure.

TWB…. Did exactly the same to me on Halifax. Plus would only allow a sell of 100,000. And for sake of clarity didn’t sell any.

Very strange this afternoon, and then buys allowed to flow. Filling an order? Who knows.

You hang around this board and do nothing to contribute constructively or post any research which may be of interest. Instead you moan, berate individuals and the company. I am as frustrated as everyone on here and with 124m shares and six figures £ invested want to see progress. I am assured the company have done all they can and are now purely in the hands of Indian governing bodies to allow them to commence production. If you are not happy with your money in this company, you have a choice - sell up and move on.

Zag....still name calling I see. Pathetic individual.

As per December report and allowing for post quarter end Tranche 3 placement funds they had £1.82m of available cash. The monthly cash burn is around £170k, I have had that verified.

Short term cashflow funds are sound.

Yes its detailed in the last December report on their website.

Just to clarify - I was given the 90% COS figure directly, which relates to the chance of success for the refrac. I was and am very heartened by that.

Zag….have you actually got any OEX shares?. Because if you have, I worry about you, and whether it’s good for your health to actually own any, and put yourself through this day after day. If you have some, and are not happy, sell up move on and find another stock. It really is that simple.

Just to let you know, I have been in touch again with our CEO, yesterday. I am aware of the upto date situation with the GPCB, but I don't profess to say a word on here, as it will just be met with abuse and negativity.

What I will say is that positive progress has been made, against a back drop of absolute ridiculous bureaucracy that shouldn't even be in play in todays modern era.

Ever wondered what they do to a well when its taken off production and the protocols that have to be adhered to when restarting it? I have learnt an awful lot these past few weeks.

Bye for now.

Thank you Keith. And don’t ever apologise about the length and detail in your posts. Your contribution on this board is not only 1st class but second to none.

Per recent post ....

http://environmentclearance.nic.in/timelineA.aspx?pid=IA/GJ/IND2/238854/2007&type=EC&proposal_id=41233

Company has confirmed this should now push GPCB across the line. Game on.......

Zag…. New company now. They’re learning. And as shareholders we are entitled to voice our opinions to them directly. I have and know many others are too.

74% of the shares held are in PI hands. Use our voice collectively.

Zag… I wrote to Vigo last week and copied in Roland, regarding how I think they needed to improve their comms strategy and socialisation of the OEX story. I got a decent reply and they agreed with my thoughts. They tell me they have a clear strategy going forward. It’s interesting today that they have tweeted themselves on Twitter more in one day than they have for weeks on end. It just so happens they have retweeted one of mine, which I see as a positive and not a negative. I think all shareholders agree they need to up their game. Let’s hope they continue to do so.

I’ll take that as a positive :-)

Having read, re-read and re-read multiple times the RNS it gives us a lot of detail.

The positives:

* Legal GSPC completion - end March, confirms 100% outright ownership. No ambiguity.
* GPCB approval imminent. That could literally be anytime now.
* Production restart immediately. No grey area.
* Refrac prep continues. Behind the scenes planning continues.
* Tenders in for refrac equipment.
* New contracts for gas/condensate sales. This is huge news based upon where commodity prices are at.
* New wells refrac - suggesting 4-5mmscfd - robust economics.
* India huge demand for their own gas.

The negatives :

* Equipment shortage - out of company's control.
* Refrac delayed to July 22, not ideal but may come sooner if equipment is sourced earlier.
* Refrac time for results 30-60 days - longer than what has been suggested but explained why because well bore needs cleaning up.
* Initial refrac flow rates - lower than anticipated but still targeting 2mmscfd which is better than previous flow rates.
* New wells end of year/Qtr 1 23.

The uncertainties :

* Funding for future working capital - mitigated to a degree by cashflow from production.
* Funding for new wells - most likely to be via a JV

Now there appears to me to be more +ve than -ve in there, but what has been confirmed is more definitive time lines. Thats a further positive and again removes the ambiguity.

The market, whilst currently showing a marginal reduction in SP of 7%, does not know what to really make of this. And thats because the company have confirmed there is further positive news due imminently. Thats right those are the words they have used.

The company can only announce what they know and have covered off everything they needed to that is deemed price sensitive. I genuinely believe the next RNS will see SP appreciation and that we won't be stuck around these levels. The company is going through a transformational period, not without its frustrations and delays, but I for one believe they have made significant progress against a back drop of difficult policies and protocols in a country that doesn't move with speed and has its own internal affair problems.

investor110....great to see some more in-depth analysis. You may need to factor in that there are another 7 shut in wells that were previously drilled by OEX. Now not all of these may come back into production but if the refrac is successful I am sure they may focus on some of these as well. I think you figure of 2023 revenue c$20-28m is more than achievable.

So here is my take on the RNS. And for those on here calling me out, I’ve only ever posted on here verbatim discussions I’ve had with Roland, and my research, thoughts and numbers are my interpretation which I’m happy to have challenged.

1. Accounts finalisation - should be a legal formality. Announcement to market end March will give complete conclusion and remove any doubt of 100% ownership.
2. GPCB approval imminent. That signals to me anytime now and in line with my conversations. Allows production switch on straight away. Which means cash flow. It’s clear that behind the scenes there has been a lot of production start up activity in readiness for production.
3. Initial production rates could be upto 1 mmscfd as per previous old flow rates, and confirmed to me. My calculated revenue numbers I still stand by in my previous posts.
4. Refrac delay. July 22 at best. Not ideal but out of their control with equipment shortage. They don’t want to compromise on their technical plan which I’m pleased to hear. Could slip further due to equipment delay.
5. 1-2 months Aug/Sept before flow rates are ascertained from the refracking programme. So be it, wells will still be producing in the meantime.
6. 1 new well before end of year, subject to funding. It’s an AIM statutory requirement that they have to say that.

As far as updates go, this is comprehensive and there is no ambiguity.

Let’s see how market reacts later.

Better still why don’t you phone him or email him yourself. He’s very approachable, and you might even learn something. Go on…. Give it a try.

Shenners….. and your contribution and research/intel to date has been what? Another pr**k posting complete nonsense.

To give anyone a quick run over the numbers that we will see anyway now. This is from previous flow data the company RNS'd.

From 21 December 2015 India Operations Update RNS.

> Cambay 77H produced ~ 715 boe during the first 10 days. 2.7MMscf gas and 252 bbls of condensate.
> Cambay 77H gas sales averaged ~ 0.267 MMscfd with a maximum peak rate of 0.572 MMscfd

What does this equate to in revenue terms ?

715 (boe) - 715 x 6,000 cubic ft = 4,290,000 cubic ft = 4,290 mcf

The off-take agreement in place generates $4.30/mcf and let’s assume a price of condensate of $90 per barrel.

0.267 mmscfd. = 267 mcf x $4.30 = $1,148 per day

252 bbs @ $90bl = $22,680/10 days = $2,268 per day (25bbls per day)

$1,148 + $2,268 = $3,416 per day

$3,416 x 365 = $1.246m per annum from C77H.

The board believe C77H could flow between 0.5mmscfd and 1.0mmscfd prior to refracing.

Previous flow rate (per Dec RNS) 0.267mmscfd x 3.75 = 1.0 mmscfd

Therefore $1.246m x 3.75 = $4,672m at 1.0 mmscfd.

That’s $4,672m per well without taking into account refrac success, which they are expecting could increase rates by 3-5times.

TWO WELLS about to come on stream, thats $10m per annum, and that DOESN'T include the successful refracking. The market has not priced this in.