Member Info for Jasper13

TWB....nail on the head. This is about a re-rate of the whole business and what it has achieved in the past 12 months, plus its future strategy. The market has not priced this in to reflect a proper change in the enterprise value and market capital. Big pointers for me :

1. 100% ownership of Cambay
2. Funded for refracting activities. Using new technology.
3. JV discussions in play.
4. Commodity price increases.
5. New board of directors - with proven successful experience.
6. New CCS UK project.
7. About to become cashflow producing for first time in 3 years.
8. 27% of shares held by institutional investors. I have a new upto date list from Suzie and been analysing this.

It simply can not stay at £14/£15m market capital company.

What if .......
1. GPCB approvals are all now sorted.
2. Final health and safety checks for equipment completed.
3. Final production protocols all in place.
4. Production has slowly commenced.
5. Just waiting on initial flow rates before announcing to market.

Would this not be a more powerful announcement than just stating production has commenced? I think so. :-)

Having touched base with our CEO and the MD of our PR firm in the past few days, I am enthused regarding the strategy and plan that is in place regarding the forthcoming news announcements. I did express my concern to both that we need to step up the rhetoric regarding where the company is now positioned and how we need to really socialise the progress and story more positively; this was acknowledged.

We are about to embark on transformational news for the company and I am confident we are in very safe hands.

You saw the buying into the close, we’ve maintained a steady price all of last week. It’s a known what’s coming next, and there are no issues in play.

I’m sticking with £30m market capital in the short term.

Now there are two simple trains of thought today.

1. Believe based upon those that have been in contact with our CEO that we will have good news next week - production commencement and refrac details and timing, plus perhaps some more operational detail.

2. Believe that there are issues and our CEO is keeping quiet and trying to sort matters out, and there will be no news next week.

I am in camp 1. firmly. Take your pick, place your bets. Let’s see what the market and buyers think today.

Jr…..

From 21 December 2015 India Operations Update RNS.

> Cambay 77H produced ~ 715 boe during the first 10 days. 2.7MMscf gas and 252 bbls of condensate.
> Cambay 77H gas sales averaged ~ 0.267 MMscfd with a maximum peak rate of 0.572 MMscfd

What does this equate to in revenue terms ?

715 (boe) - 715 x 6,000 cubic ft = 4,290,000 cubic ft = 4,290 mcf

The off-take agreement in place generates $4.30/mcf and let’s assume a price of condensate of $90 per barrel.

0.267 mmscfd. = 267 mcf x $4.30 = $1,148 per day

252 bbs @ $90bl = $22,680/10 days = $2,268 per day (25bbls per day)

$1,148 + $2,268 = $3,416 per day

$3,416 x 365 = $1.246m per annum from C77H.

The board believe C77H could flow between 0.5mmscfd and 1.0mmscfd prior to refracing.

Previous flow rate (per Dec RNS) 0.267mmscfd x 3.75 = 1.0 mmscfd

Therefore $1.246m x 3.75 = $4,672m at 1.0 mmscfd.

That’s $4,672m per well without taking into account refrac success, which they are expecting could increase rates by 3-5times.

Gordon....I disagree. He is able to give reassurance and confidence that they are doing all they can to sort and deliver matters. Now that is something that no CEO is going to RNS because it would just be viewed as speculative. Let me ask you this. Would you prefer that the likes of Oilman and myself just stay silent on any dialogue. Can you imagine the carnage that would ensue on this board if that was the case. It is one of the worse boards on LSE for any meaningful research. I have contributed and posted my own views, calculations etc but I see very little like that coming back.

Thanks WTB and well said about Indian bureacracy. Just to add I also wrote a fairly strongly worded email to Patrick at Vigo yesterday, copying in Roland, to suggest that we need to step up the PR comms and narrative around the OEX story much more. There are certain posters on here that have seen a copy of it.

There are certain posters in touch with Roland, if you don't like that tough. He's very approachable so why not try him. Problem here is that half the FUD brigade wouldn't know what to say or wouldn't be capable of stringing a sensible narrative together which would warrant any response. You then have some on here simply not invested and would be hypocritical reaching out, as their only intention is to drive down the price.

I have a message from our CEO that GPCB is any day. And that this will be announcement to the market as soon as it lands. Now I am not doubting that and have trust in Roland to deliver.

The delays have been outside of the company's hands. Try reading about the politics in play at the GPCB it'll answer your questions and you'll perhaps understand why its taken so long. The company have been doing all they can to get this over the line.

Now if you don't believe a word I say, thats your prerogative, but I am confident we are getting news very soon and it will catch a lot of people out.

Shenners….no nothing fishy at all. Contact with the CEO today and news next week. I’m fairly sure when I last looked on the calendar that next week is still this month. ;-)

Our CEO has made good progress on his trip. Consent any day now and announcement to follow. That’s not my own take or musings and I am sure Oilman can back me up too.

Regarding our gas off take price this can be renegotiated every 3 months so I’m confident of my previous figure of $4.30 increasing.

We will re rate very soon .

KeithOz ….it is indeed new and like you I can see no reference prior in any PRD material. Our friend Google throws up something interesting, or perhaps not.

https://wikimapia-org.translate.goog/16012132/fr/tizroutine?_x_tr_sch=http&_x_tr_sl=fr&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

Seems someone was asking the question about the oil seeps 7 years ago. Could be nothing but then again ……

Formul1187 - you shouldn’t be investing. Let’s leave it there.

Just read my previous post!!!! Titled India Bound. It’s all in there.

Formul1187 ….. you sound one obnoxious individual. I don’t need to post any emails. I choose to share with people on this forum not only my research but certain details of conversations if I feel appropriate. Now I could stop and stay silent but I think the majority on here quite value the contribution. Your contribution on the other hand from what I can see amounts to “Jack All” So please do enlighten us all with some of your research and musings.

So I think it’s now recognised and accepted that Roland is on his way to India. He is, I made contact with him this morning before he set off. So why would we think our CEO is making a trip now?

1. We are about to start production. Perhaps handshakes and an opening ceremony? Chance for some much needed PR, let’s hope so.
2. Refracking is scheduled, it’s Roland’s expertise, it’s what he enjoys doing (listen to previous interviews). He’s the best man to steer us on this and get everything kicked off.
3. Press some flesh with senior Indian ministers and reaffirm Oilex’s intentions of production and development. Remember we have a 39 well FDP signed off and ready to bring into play.
4. Continue discussions with in country prospective JV partners. Roland has poured over bags of previous well data and we know there is the potential of 1TCF sat there. Lots to discuss with them.
5. Meet his India team, assess skills and competence. Nothing better than seeing the whites of eyes of your team members and make sure they’re all on his wavelength and bought into the company strategy.

The trip is well timed and with reason.

The market has not woken up to or priced in what Oilex are about to deliver, after 3 years of being a stagnant entity. Fully funded, all production clearances in place and oil and gas prices at record highs.

The share price cannot stay at a market capital of £14m with everything now in play. Sentiment will not only drive this now, fundamentals will now have to be factored in.

First stop £30m market capital. My previous production calculations confirm that.

Thanks Callum …. A good read and signs pointing in right direction.

GRH….

Thanks for starting this thread, some very interesting comments and views. My thoughts.

1) I suspect off-take offers have been made and are being considered. I am not so sure these will be hitting the mark that PG requires as it’s still early phase exploration in any potential offer being made.

2) I am sure a placing is being considered, although at the back of PG’s mind he will want to minimise dilution. Plus what’s the optimum amount to raise to cover off all funding requirements for say the next 12-18 months.

3) Debt - not so sure this could be in play yet, too early as reserves need booking. Although conversations probably taken place.

4) Farm out - would not surprise me if conversation have taken place, although the question of what data gets shared at this stage will have to have been considered so as to not show all the hand.

My preference and if I was in PG’s shoes would be to raise enough capital to fund the drilling and testing programme for MOU 4/5 and NE. Continue to work closely with the industries finest partners and prove up more of the resources. This would put them in a position of immense strength when it then comes down to maximising value for the end game. This will lay to rest all the issues of having no cash and negates any of the FUD agenda.

In terms of timescale, raise after MOU-1 testing as we should see the price continue to appreciate in advance of the results.

Having been involved with GKP I would not want to go down that route ever again!

Egg1000…..that is correct, from 77H only. Until we know the success of the refrac hard to be 100% certain of the numbers, but it gives a good idea what the potential could be.

No chance whatsoever of a take over at this present time. They need to prove up more of the resource and that will only occur upon successful refrac. Once they have done this they can start to move some of those 2P contingent resources to booked reserves.

That’s when a potential suitor maybe interested.

The same applies to farm out to a potential partner. They’ll want to see the size of the prize and chance of success.

I just thought it worth analysing some previous production numbers from C77H to give us an indication of what we are likely to see when production commences. I’ve included in here the condensate volumes which appears to be being overlooked, with everyone just focusing on the gas. It makes a big difference to the overall numbers.

From 21 December 2015 India Operations Update RNS.

> Cambay 77H produced ~ 715 boe during the first 10 days. 2.7MMscf gas and 252 bbls of condensate.
> Cambay 77H gas sales averaged ~ 0.267 MMscfd with a maximum peak rate of 0.572 MMscfd

What does this equate to in revenue terms ?

715 (boe) - 715 x 6,000 cubic ft = 4,290,000 cubic ft = 4,290 mcf

The off-take agreement in place generates $4.30/mcf and let’s assume a price of condensate of $90 per barrel.

0.267 mmscfd. = 267 mcf x $4.30 = $1,148 per day

252 bbs @ $90bl = $22,680/10 days = $2,268 per day (25bbls per day)

$1,148 + $2,268 = $3,416 per day

$3,416 x 365 = $1.246m per annum from C77H.

The board believe C77H could flow between 0.5mmscfd and 1.0mmscfd prior to refracing.

Previous flow rate (per Dec RNS) 0.267mmscfd x 3.75 = 1.0 mmscfd

Therefore $1.246m x 3.75 = $4,672m at 1.0 mmscfd.

That’s $4,672m per well without taking into account refrac success, which they are expecting could increase rates by 3-5times.

OEX have 100% of this revenue. You can now start to see how much of a disparity there is between current SP and NPV.