Member Info for Jasper13

https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/schlumberger-wins-indian-fracking-job/2-1-1202106

This is huge news gone completely under the radar amongst the raising noise. These guys are no mugs. Largest oilfield services company in the world. May even end up being part of the JV if they like what they see

The newly announced gas price today of $7.32 is very encouraging. New numbers.

Initial production flow rates - let’s say 0.5mmscfd. That’s 500 mcfd. Might be more or might be less.

500 x $7.32 = $3,660 per day.

Add in some condensate, say 25 bbls per day - 25 x $90/bbl =$2,250 per day.

So $3,660 + $2,250 = $5,910 per day/ $179k p.m

This should cover the current monthly cash burn.

Will know more on actual numbers very soon.

Conger… I have no issues with the company and how this has been handled. I have the utmost respect for Roland and he has always dealt a straight card in any conversations or communications I have with him. The issue I have is with Novum who have plainly confided in people and now that trust has been broken. This goes on all the time and I’ve seen it so many times. Perhaps nothing gets done regarding letters written or feelings voiced but one thing for sure, I don’t see Novum as being the sole broker for Oilex for much longer. And yes that has been confirmed to me.

Conger you make valid points and I agree. The current market capital value is wrong in my opinion, and that is shared by Roland. Any 1 TCF gas field is worth multiples of our price today. Yes it needs work and funding, however if they get the refrac right and it produces 5mmscfd which they think is possible per well, the JV will fall into place. This should be the last fund raise.

The screen shots of the leaked placing on here have been sent to Novum. There will be an investigation. It will most likely have to be reported to the AIM regulator.

I thought we may have to raise funds but was not made aware that discussions were taking place until I spoke to the company yesterday. And even then no details were given.

1. Placing leaked on here yesterday.
2. Company were made aware I spoke to the CEO.
3. We knew news was due on LOI and gas sales. These are both very positive. And gas sales price at $7.32 changes the economics and numbers dramatically. Initial reworked numbers could give $249k revenue per month in short term.
4. Certain investors have written to Novum expressing concern about the leak, company are copied in. This is being investigated.
5. The book build and price has not even started. I had that confirmed today by the CEO. So anyone spouting prices is just an outright lie. The RNS states “approx a month.’
6. We have more news flow on production numbers, most probably next week, and yes they are encouraging as the flow stabilises.

Whilst people will not like the announcement, the leak, the rumours and all the name calling, the facts are that the company is just getting on with the job in hand. And that is to produce gas /oil and monetise a 1 TCF asset. It takes cash to do that.

Zag…. I write and share my own research and numbers. I don’t ramp I just state fact and pass on what I have been told. Who are you to tell me I need bringing down a peg or two? I judge my own success on my return on my investment, not by randoms like you stating if I am in the win column. And if people are on here hanging on my every word then more the fool them, and they shouldn’t be investing. Absolute ludicrous statement to make.

Time to leave this polluted board alone, adds no value to my investing strategy or decisions.

Gordon …. I have been told by Roland this morning to expect the quarterly report later this week. So yes they’ve obviously changed their timings.

Yes I did. As confirmed to me by Roland this morning. So what’s your point? You either choose to believe or not? But instead you just continually pour scorn on comments made on this board. I have not seen one piece of decent research from yourself, just constant moaning or belittling people. If you don’t like this company then sell up and move on. Or are you just a thorn in the backside to keep casting fear and doubt for any newbies considering buying the share. Are you invested, serious question?

Zag….you really are a piece of work aren’t you. Polluting this board with your vile comments. Pity you.

We will get the quarterly report this week, and that will add some more colour to the cash position. That’s just been confirmed to me.

TWB....Let's discuss the elephant in the room - cash. The monthly cash burn at present is about £103k for operating activities, but this excludes any interest or other one off costs. Let's take the average of what they have been for the past 6 months and we get total monthly cash burn of about £150k.

Decembers quarterly reported stated we have £1.82m of available cash. Now some of this will be required for the refrac, but as yet we don't know how much. Let's assume £750k. That would leave us with £1.070m.

4 months of cash burn since December at £150k pm leaves us with £470k. Or put another way another 3 months of monthly cash burn, taking us upto July.

Now we know we have income from gas/oil sales starting from last Friday. Let's assume a conservative $3k per day (£2.3K), that gives us income of about £70k per month, so puts a dent of about 46% into the monthly cash burn.

Will we need to raise? I suspect with ongoing production costs and increased operational costs the answer will probably be yes. The question would be when? June/July perhaps when hopefully the SP has appreciated a bit more.

Or maybe other funding methods are being considered as I know the company are speaking to more institutional investors.

Hope that helps.

I am basing the 1TCF on what is reported on the company website. "Based on success, additional wells will be planned for future years to fully exploit the c. 927 BCF of contingent gas resources in the Eocene horizon on the Cambay licence."

I have halved the 1TCF to 500BCF, so I think I am being conservative. The $7 per barrel is a mean figure of gas/oil sales less cap ex/op ex.

Yes there is likely to be a new broker, along with a change in the share structuring, plus more institutional investment.

A new broker will more than likely produce a broker note and potential valuation of Cambay.

Thinking what this could look like here are some numbers.

Cambay holds as per the CPR around 1TCF.

1TCF equates to around 170m barrels of oil equivalent. Let’s assume a conservative 50 % recovery factor so that gives us 85m boe.

Cambay will produce gas and condensate, so let’s assume a conservative net $7 per barrel.

85m x $7 = $595m, converted = £456m

456m/7,167bn shares in issue = 6p

It’s evident on these conservatives numbers that assuming we can prove the new refrac technique that we would be a lucrative partner for a JV (Cairn India ?) or even a full takeover. The recovery factor could also increase these numbers, and net $ per barrel could be more.

On a full takeover leaving some upside for the acquirer, say 50%, 3p doesn’t look a stupid number.

The market has simply not factored any of this into todays value, instead choosing to focus on the legacy and history of the company. It has to at some point as things have now changed with a new strategy in play, new management, further projects and plenty of news flow due.

Compelling.

1 share printed if you are a believer in MM codes :-) RNS logged ?

Let’s just say I am heartened by the response. For anyone investing in O&G plays, they can take time, but can always reward very well also. Should come as no surprise that we are on the radars of the majors in the area.

Would appear its now game on. Patience always gets rewarded. Watch the volume as it starts to get socialised more.

He confirmed update fairly soon, just waiting for certain confirmations. I suspect these are now in play hence the buying today.

This is looking very positive indeed, and backs up what Jeremy told me the other week.

A truly transformational day for this business. Be under no illusion what they have achieved in the past 12 months, against a back drop of all the Indian bureaucracy, is truly remarkable and testament to the great team they have in place under the guidance of a very professional and experienced CEO.

Oilex are playing out a very sound and clear strategy and today is testament to that with not only the much waited for production commencement RNS, but also the interview with ShareTalk later.

Firm base established from now which to build on and see the re-rate of the market capital take place.