Member Info for Jasper13

At the Proactive Investor presentation in Sept 22, PG made reference, quite clearly that he was not interested in drilling the field for any gas to power. He stated "let someone else do that." His focus is on the CNG opportunity.

I can see :

1. Partial sale of the licence (farm out) to an interested party with deep pockets to focus on gas to power + oil
2. PRD retain the CNG opportunity to maximise shareholder value - dividends etc
3. Full take out of both CNG and gas to power/oil opportunity if the money is right

PG refers a lot to running room. GRH has identified we have bags of it. Probably more than any normal calculator can compute!

This question still bugs me and I’ve written to Tim Thompson at Flagstaff today , to try and seek clarity. I probably won’t get a reply.

What is there to gain by no spud announcement? Will keep the market guessing on drill result date for sure.

Or is it OHNYM dictating the news flow again? Quite possibly.

Or is a commercial agreement being penned that has delayed proceedings?

Before I’m shot down for trying to deramp I can assure that I’m not, and have a very large chunk of these.

Any thoughts?

I posted the below back in Apr 22. Shares in issue now 788m, gas prices significantly higher. When GSA announced this should go significantly higher.

Duyung numbers as per the GCA reports Dec 2020.

Low - 384 BCF (net EME 32 BCF)
Best - 566 BCF (net EME 48 BCF)
High - 766 BCF (net EME 65 BCF)

Assuming a $3 per mcf gas sale, which I think is conservative gives us following broad brush NPV. I’ve assumed 700m shares in issue.

Low - 10.8p
Best - 16p
High - 22p

If you apply 50% contingency to the above SP numbers.

Low - 5.4p
Best - 8p
High - 11p

There is no official spud announcement due to certain commercial agreements being finalised?

What if these commercial agreements revolve around a corporate transaction, let's say Heads of Agreement, at this stage with our Dubai & Asian associates. May explain any spud delay alongside equipment delay.

Something is certainly afoot and you need to follow the breadcrumbs....

Madmanrob… you have just summed it up so very succinctly. They could spud any hour, any day and won’t be able to tell the market as we are due to be closed for 3 days. By which time the drill bit will be turning.

It’s very clear to me what they are telling us.

Being drilled as a “tight hole’” so being constrained by ONHYM.

Written in such a way that suggests radio silence now until TD reached, with probably no actual spud RNS. Very interesting.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/predator-o--38-g-hldgs--prd-/rns/mou-2-drilling-update/202212300700032482L/

Gordon....a large II has said we want to buy 250m shares ( as a number say) but only want to pay 0.20p (placing price) no more.

This then will need filling over time and over trading sessions. The primary broker will be working with the MM's to ensure the order gets filled at that price. All controlled.

Most will have seen this week larger than normal trades going through and today 2 large trades whilst in this morning's auction.

I have it on good authority that we have an institutional buyer acquiring stock. This bodes very well and will probably go some way to explain why the price is stagnant at present. Order being filled, then hopefully brakes off.

I expect the institutional investors who wanted in on the recent placing, but unfortunately it was capped.

Think why and then think when……and then think with who? NDA’s and CA’s with perhaps periods of exclusivity.

It won’t be far away. Going to get very interesting soon!

Zag …I think you need to read the company RNS properly. You’re very out of touch what’s going on. All there in black and white.

You have not read the posts correctly, he’s merely pointing out what Oilex have already told us. There is no delay for the commencement of the refrac. Equipment is secured and rig will be on site mid June.

The refrac work over rig will be on site mid June. All the equipment has been sourced. Refrac commences around first week July.

There will be an announcement of commencement date and work programme.

Yes that’s me. I’ve had email dialogue with TK as I raised the point about it. He has confirmed the debt will be dealt with before then.

https://www.naturalgasworld.com/reliance-expects-further-increase-in-indian-gas-prices-98081

Thats a 35% increase on the current deal of $7.32mm/BTU and equates to $9,882 per 1 mmscfd. Successful refrac targets 2 mmscfd per well, so thats $20k per day per well PLUS the condensate. Wow!! Game changer

Gordon......my bad and typo. That should have read £170k yes, not £120k.

I see this as a very positive next step forward :

1. Working in conjunction with CNOOC. CNOOC wouldn’t waste time, effort and resources if they didn’t think Topaz was worth it. ?
2. More detail for shareholders end of May from the studies being conducted. ?
3. Strong narrative and incentive wording around the Mako GSA. ?
4. Conrad IPO will crystallise value. ?
5. CLN lender - £1.787m loss on their shares converted at 8p in March ?
6. CLN Face value increase to £3.3m from £2.2m outstanding, means to clawback losses. ?
7. If GSA entered into by 31 July, no CLN redeemed until 1 December ? Price could then be back to 12p and 27.5m shares would be issued. ?
8. If no GSA entered into by 31 July, CLN can be redeemed whenever at reduced value of £2.67m. If share price at 1.5p still, gives them 178m shares if redeemed. ?
9. Cant sell Mako for less than £3.3m ?
10. TK final statement points to a sale Mako with then all focus on Topaz. ?

Clearly laid out strategy, comprehensive and can see the direction of travel going forward. I like it …

A pivotal period for the company over the next 3-4 months, as it continues its transformation into a mid tier producer, aiming to monetise 1TCF of gas and 61m barrels of condensate.

Workover rig for the refrac programme is due on site mid June and refrac commencement first week July. The work plan is to perforate and refrac two new zones and make significant changes to the last refrac exercise. The company has stated CHANCE OF SUCCESS for the programme is greater than 75%. Now that shows some confidence.

Recent placing seems to have gone to mainly large institutional investors with Republic taking 60%. There is also NEW institutional investors onboarded, which bodes very well in making the issued shares placed in 'sticky' hands. Plus they'll have all have no doubt been taken "inside" and divulged further details and plans from the company.

C73 continues to produce, and C77 switch over will no doubt follow soon, as its intended that both wells are put on cyclical production.

Looking at some numbers, and based upon public details provided by the company ballpark revenue streams for April production should be around $82k for the period 8/4 to 30/4. If we assumed C77 came on stream say mid May, the production number from this well should be greater than C73 and in the region of 0.5mmscfd. The resultant effect of this number with increased condensate could generate revenue in the region of $148k or £120k.

Based upon the above potential May numbers, this would practically cover the monthly cash burn for operational and running costs expenses (based upon last quarterly report). This is great and means we are conserving cash from the recent raise.

I am not alone and am frustrated as many at the current share price. It has no baring or reflection on the correct NAV of the Cambay asset and its current market capital compared to some of its peers is quite frankly a joke.

I do, however, think a wider community of investors are waking up to where the company are at, and we do appear to have large buyer/buyers over the previous trading sessions. This bodes well.

Not long now until the much anticipated refrac commences and if successful, you won't see the price at these levels. AIMHO and DYOR.