ogn24 Aug 2012 21:33
When Origin demerged from ARYZTA, which still owns a 71 per cent stake, its core business was fertiliser distribution; in addition it had - and has - associates operating in fish feed and fish oil, animal feeds and branded Irish grocery products. It is to this uninspiring but stable collection of interests that leading cereal-agronomy business Masstock was added, plus two smaller agronomy firms, UAP and Rigby Taylor, which operate in fruit and vegetables, and lawn care. These acquisitions provide Origin with opportunities to sell more fertiliser, but their main attraction is the growth potential of agronomy.
Origin's agronomy arm advises farmers how to improve crop yields and sells suitable products with a mark up to reflect the advice. As farms in the UK, Origin's main market, continue to consolidate there should be growing demand for this service. And, as increasingly sophisticated advice is required - due to factors such as regulation and climate change - market leaders, such as Origin, can expect to win market share. As the market develops there could be scope for Origin to increase its consultancy work, perhaps even become farm managers.
However, overseas expansion may offer the best opportunities. Initially, Origin is focused on eastern Europe, where there are many large farms but crop yields are low. According to Goodbody, in Origin's most established overseas market, Poland, about three times more land than in the UK is devoted to crop production yet yields are about half the UK's.
Given Origin's sound finances - year-end net debt is forecast to be the same as cash profits - overseas expansion could be aided by acquisition. Besides, Origin looks more likely to gain highly-profitable farm-management work in these less-developed markets, which have more potential to attract institutional investors than the mature UK market.