aht7 Sep 2012 22:49
Shares in rental specialists United Rentals and Ashtead, who hire everything from saws to bulldozers, have been glued together for the past three years (see chart) - not surprising as both their fortunes are closely tied to the US economy. But since May something significant has happened - their share prices have parted company. Ashtead reported record trading in its first quarter to the end of July, while United Rentals announced that second-half revenues would miss market expectations. As a result, United's shares sunk while Ashtead's hit record highs. Yet the worry is that the softer outlook for the second half, which has already hit United, also spells trouble for Ashtead. So, after a record run, it's time to take profits and sell Ashtead.
Even though their headquarters are 3,500 miles apart, United Rentals and Ashtead are sector peers because Ashtead's US arm, Sunbelt, generated 84 per cent, or £945m, of 2011-12 group revenue. More significantly, all of the group's £181m operating profits came from the US. The UK arm, A-Plant, generated revenues of £189m and operating profits of just £7m.
So, when the share prices of these two all-but-identical companies started diverging, as they did recently, it's significant. Sure, some of United Rentals' investors are selling because a $2.53bn deal to buy rival RSC, which closed in April, included taking on a whopping $2.3bn in debt. And if over $200m in cost savings fail to materialise, profits may unravel, too. But that deal was announced in December so investors have had plenty of opportunity to get out. Besides, initially it prompted the share price to rise over 60 per cent to $44 by May.