HSP25 Sep 2012 23:49
"Based on early trading, setting Maltby aside, and despite a slow start to production at Tower, we are cautiously optimistic that we will meet or even exceed our overall budget for this financial year."
Broker WH Ireland is reviewing its rating following the trading update. It had previously rated the shares a "buy" with a 1385p price target.
"Setting aside the deep mine, Maltby, the outlook statement is strong and the group is tendering in Asia for the first time. The latest developments at Maltby, however, which caused the group to warn in May, have prompted a reassessment of the balance of future value / inherent risk in the mine. The catalyst for this consideration is the unwelcome news that gas issues are adding delays and risk to the face line completion and subsequent production," notes Nick Spoliar at WH Ireland.
"Against this background, the group has raised the possibility that that the mine itself may be closed, with an end October deadline for this decision. This would be a major change, arguably removing a major distraction and releasing the energy of the business in the direction of a fully service-based model, but at the price of an impairment charge and further downgrade," Spoliar suggests.
"Closing Maltby would effectively strip out, we estimate, c£8m of EBITA [earnings before interest, tax and amortisation], leaving however higher quality or at least more risk averse earnings. In either circumstance, the group remains very comfortably within its covenants," Spoliar said.