Member Info for JammyC

From Burford's filing, I particularly like:

Argentina has made no secret of its strategy in this case — to “delay” judgement “as much as
possible.”1
That is financially sensible for Argentina, which has also intimated that it expects
ultimately to face a multi-billion dollar liability in this case.2

footnote 2 being:
2 See Statement of Axel Kicillof before Comisiones de Minería, Energía y Combustibles y de
Presupuesto y Hacienda of Argentine Senate, Mar. 13, 2014, at 31 (acknowledging the offer process
required under the bylaws and taking view that, at the time of the takeover, 51% of the company would
have merited a $10 billion offer); Guillermo Nielsen, Las elecciones y el futuro de la diplomacia
financiera argentina, El Cronista (Feb. 14, 2019), https://bit.ly/31cZmXj (current YPF President

Perhaps "Such a large egg" would be more accurate as Burford does have many eggs in its portfolio, which is why if the SP were to half on an unfavorable YPF outcome I would see this an an opportunity

That's the problem with having too many eggs in one basket, although if you don't have any eggs in the first place you're not going to get any home.

If the SP did half on an unfavorable YPF outcome it would be an opportunity to double up IMO as it would be a massive irrational overreaction by the market.

On the volitility, while we are at a painful point technically, due I believe to trading, if you hold a long-term investment holding and a smaller trading tranche this can be a great feature to improve your lot.

Very pleased to see your post. Hope you don't mind but I've cut and pasted your post to ADVFN where I'm sure it will be positively received. Thanks for getting in touch??

I've seen comments from the regular trolls on ADVFN mentioning Wirecard and EY - although the little I read about the case said that EY wouldn't sign off the accounts, but not sure if historically they've failed.

I personally think its due to lingering uncertainty due to MW, despite IMO BUR comprehensively unpicking their case. The share has since been notoriously volatile and perfect for traders. Many see the SP as an indication as to the quality of the company are are easily scared by downward movements - I think its just a combination of Gladstone and traders taking advantage of this. The company have so much opportunity in this future market I really can't fathom why people would sell. Hopefully we will have a better day tomorrow.

I think it's just games but we are at a pivotal time. Good news on YPF or a US listing will send this sky high. Should either fail however there will be downside. Personally, I believe we will have positive news on both fronts shortly, however I never thought the price would get pushed this low again. It suprised me passing 514 then again this morning when it went someway past 480. Looking at the chart it rebounded off the 50 day MA. This gives some positivity for tomorrow but I'd be lying if I said I was comfortable

UT @ 482.9.

I think the same too. I see 480 as support and are pleased the SP hasn't closed at less than this. That said we have the auction still to clear

I have to agree with ffc but also acknowledge the mental stress this extreme volility brings. News can only be around the corner with the Peterson case due to being revisited in NY tomorrow and and the listing in the next few weeks. I'm toying with the idea of a top up but already overweight. Decisions....

Well said backinblak but unsure of the 3S alias. I had the same initial suspicion but appears to be a different writing style. I will give them the benefit of the doubt for the time being.

I'm not a lawyer, but Burford have repeatedly advised that the mechanisms used for the collection of sovereign debt is different from what we are looking at here. While looking ugly, should Burford win the case, they are able to confiscate Argentine assets. Whether that be aircraft, oil, ships. Argentina will want to avoid such embarrassment and disruption to their people and economy. While I would like the SP above my average buy, it would be much more prudent to wait and seek a higher settlement, especially with the high levels of interest that would be applied.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSSpPkMlb98

You packed your bags as I recall
And you walked slowly down the hall
You said you had to get away to ease your mind
And all you needed was a little of time
Oh winter's passed spring and fall
You never rung me, you never called
Thomas Browne you've been gone too long
Gone too long
If a woman could die of tears
Thomas Browne, well, I wouldn't be here
The key that you're holding won't fit my door
And there's no room in my heart for you no more
Oh winter's passed spring and fall
You never rung me, you never called
Thomas Browne you've been gone too long
Gone too long
Thomas…

GTX - are you sure your not TB? Regardless i've now filtered you

What are people's thoughts on the PCB link-up/acquisition? I'm a holder of RBGP who also specialise in Dispute Resolution and debt recovery, as number of other overlapping areas. My thoughts are that they are areas likely to see increased demand and should be good for Burford, although not so good for the risk diversification of my portfolio! That said PCB seem to specialise in larger value cases

Are you not TB?

Coutesy of ADVFN - Stentorian23 Jun '20 - 14:56 - 18541 of 18546
0 11 0

For those not listening to the Investor Call.

Interesting insights into YPF.

Sovereignty issue has now been won by Burford. The next stage is to deal with the breach of contract aspects of the case. He characterises Argentina as a well known "bad actor". When YPF shares were floated on the NYSE the prospectus set out very generous buy out calculations to deter Argentina becoming a "bad actor". Chris Bogart estimates the remaining issues will take c. 1 year to judgment. However, there is the possibility of an appeal which could take a further year. BIG HOWEVER, if Argentina proceded to appeal he feels that Argentina would have to post a bond equivalent to the judgment amount. Bogart seemed skeptical that Argentina would go down this route.

Judgment interest rate. Confirmed would run from 2012 to say 2021 rate of interest of 9% in New York. The rate of interest would form part of the case. Post judgment interest is at a lesser rate to 9%.

Short attack.

Burford's client base and business was not affected by the Muddy Water's short attack. "Only" shareholders who were holding shares in mid-teens were affected by the effects of the short. As he business wasn't affected in time the share price will recover.

US listing

Chris Bogart says that if there was any dodginess in the Burford business he would have to be stupid to operate in the US as he is taking on personal liability.

3rd party funding

Burford - not affected by Muddy Waters debacle. No new fundraising when there is min. 18 months of life left in earlier raisings.

Future

Grow and evolve innovation in the litigation finance market.

Dividends

Capital taking away from growth, better to recycle capital into the business. Company is not mature - therefore no returns of capital.

Competition

Competitors cannot compete with Burford as Burford is effecting $30m plus deals. Other competitors are not in this ballpark. Bogart welcomes new entrants as it broadens the market.

Your guess is as good as mine! FWIW I thought that we may have had something material in the days prior to the meeting. I know Argentina requested an additional week, i'm hoping that may have caught them out and that they had been wishing to discuss any settlement. Other thought was the listing. I guess we will find out shortly

I think your the one whose wishful having sold too early and wishing to return at 22p!

I'm guessing that there may be an RNS tomorrow explaining the rise? My guess is that something fundamental has changed and that it was leaked. I think this will continue up tomorrow but that could well be wishful thinking!

Me too. SP may go up or it may go down tomorrow and the next day and so on. Eventually, without warning its going to go boom! Wouldn't want to be out when when the deployments start bearing fruit. I'm sure we'll find out soon whether we are to have a full LSE listing or the coveted NYSE listing.

Schools kids can probably still remember the basic laws of English (not that mine is always a great example) . It's rare that someone on the same side of the argument can irritate so much. Why he should think there was a need to apologise for not posting within the last 12 hours astounds. The arrogance!