Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
US finished nicely up at equivalent of £8.87 but on very poor volume of only 64,768, so I can't read too much into it. The last Argentinian postponement was until 21/05; so wonder if we'll see a continuation of the previous rise next week?
Interesting GT that you use Amigo as a multi bagger - it has, and it could maybe again in quick fashion, but it could also fall to near zero next week as a critical court case will decide its future on Wednesday. Too risky for me so will watch from the sidelines.
I'm all for cross ramping when it's thought out, there's clear value to be had and the poster has similar degrees of conviction. As said this is a coffee can hold for me and its currently c. 30% of my portfolio. RBGP another 23% of the portfolio so while, so far, this year has been good to me, a slight trim here and there would make sense from a risk perspective!
I don't know exactly how long the runway is either. But I think it's long and also think that as more cases become funded, more will see the benefits from not tying up ones own funds and the TAM will become even greater. Maybe margins will fall as more money chases the attractive returns, but we are at the forefront, we have the knowledge, the name and the scale - and believe these are a Moat. But even if margins did fall slightly from current levels, I honestly don't think FFC is too far wrong when he talks about an SP of £100 in many years to come. Whether I'll be around to see it is another matter. I can't see another share with the same potential, but would love pointing in the right direction!
The most important principle is the one identified above. It’s so important it’s worth repeating again: you need a business with a high return on capital with the ability to reinvest and earn that high return on capital for years and years.
Everything else is ancillary to this principle. Below are summaries of these other principles...
Your going to have to buy to read more :)
Akre’s approach is simple and easy to understand. He calls it his threelegged stool. He looks for
• businesses that have historically compounded value per share
at very high rates;
• highly skilled managers who have a history of treating shareholders as though they are partners; and
• businesses that can reinvest their free cash flow in a manner
that continues to earn above-average returns.
We’ve talked about all of these in this book.
As he told me, though, the older he gets, the more he whittles things
down to the essentials. And the most essential thing is that third item.
This is the most important principle behind the 100-bagger. In one of
his letters, he puts it this way: “Over a period of years, our thinking has
focused more and more on the issue of reinvestment as the single most
critical ingredient in a successful investment idea, once you have already
identified an outstanding business.”
Consider a business with $100 invested in it. Say it earns a 20 percent
return on its capital in one year. That is a high return and would get Akre
interested. A 20 percent return implies $20 in earnings. But the key to a
really great idea would be a business that could then take that $20 and
reinvest it alongside the original $100 and earn a 20 percent return again
and again and again
I've a book recommendation for you all: https://www.amazon.co.uk/100-Baggers-Stocks-100-1/dp/1621291650/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=100+baggers&qid=1620906704&sr=8-1
When reading the 'what to look for', I really cant think of a better candidate than Burford. I will post a little on the importance of compounders but recommend all to read the full title. It also highlights the idea of having "coffee-can" whereby you just lock away your highest conviction stocks and leave for at least 10 years. Despite BUR now having a weight of 30% of my portfolio, the stock for me is in there.
If anyone who has read the book and can recommend any other candidates I wouldn't be offended at the cross ramp.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SCSWSharewatch/status/1391724136582598658
I've seen rapid 10% changes in both directions but we've just experienced 60% in a month without any news. That's far more than I've witnessed or can see historically from the chart. Something is definitely different imo. The volume was very good in US yesterday and higher than the UK too supporting the >7% rise. I look forward to next week
Very strong performance in the US. I don't think Sebastian's tweet is related to Burford, but I do suspect something is happening behind the scenes. If not, other people must also believe something is happening re. a settlement as the rise over the past month imo isn't normal. But long may it continue.
I sold c. 2% last Friday @ 9.55 expecting the fall. Glad I couldn't bring myself to trade a more meaningful amount as not sure I would have bought back in before now. I won't say I can see continued momentum like the previous couple of weeks as don't want to jinx it. Gl lth
It's looking very strong here, Mr Market appear to be cottoning on to the potential. I just wish I'd bought more when Miton were selling down. They have been very good to me!
If looking for a Supercycle or copper play, Pheonix copper (PHX) looks like it has promise. A US early stage miner bringing old mine works back into action so lower risk than it may sound. The area is not just rich in copper but also silver, gold and cobalt. There's some good Webinars on YouTube to help understand the potential.
I can't think of one board. I know though that you have and also that you've also tried to stifle reasoned debate by reporting users when it wasn't to your agenda. Pathetic.
I did, not sure where you get the idea I've ever said over wise? I've since more than made up for the loss there with the capital from the sale. Mano may well fall back to that level due to lack of cases and refferal lag. Why has this though got anything to do with your poor decision making record?
Quite bizarre but they don't have the best record. September last year they were advising all that they were selling a large position in RBGP at 62p due to the business being flawed. It's now near 140p (and still not reached anywhere near fair value imo). I believe they have also lost a lot in MANO. As always, best to do your own research and take the views of others as entertainment.
Total trader - I'm in BUR and LIT and agree some degree of faith required as all can really do is form opinion on historic IRRs, ROIC and past deployments. We're waxing lyrical though about a hole in the ground that we can't quantify for ourselves either. A degree of trust is required for all businesses. RBGP is much more though than a litigation funder; 2 law firms, M&A House and a litigation funder. Not forget potential mcap in for free with contingent case fees which aren't considered by ST or house broker. Well worth an eye ball but if any questions I'll gladly attempt to assist on that board. Apologies to others here!
On THS I can confirm buys going through as sells as had a further top up for my isa that went through below the mid-price.
Rbgp is a cracker. You need to look at fundermental changes rather than the chart though as already risen considerably. ST has just upgraded target to 175p.
Total trader - Also interested in your picks of the moment?
Everyone who follow the share should have known the results - These were the past and the position communicated. It is the future that is of interest and a glimpse is available via the previous trading statement. It was a missed opportunity not to give guidance today but the presentation Webinar gives promise. I won't be selling and will look to add on further weekness - the US will be huge and allow greater profitability than achieved historically
I'd offer the use of book value taking account of historic IRRs as a better valuation tool than PE due to the nature of the business and lumpy returns. How exactly I don't know! Hopefully the opportunity is becoming clear to Mr Market and the last couple of weeks suggest this might be the case. I'm still unsure as to the exact catalyst but think it will become clear in time. Anyway, I'm pleased that you are now feeling more positive about your holding. All the best