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Interesting points being made. But we will only know when actual results start to appear. Hopefully a much better indication in operational result at end of Q1 operational results, assuming the shipping issue has been resolved early enough in the New Year for the new Roan module to have been ramped up.

Happydays here is my take on the Sable situation. The Sable copper cathode capacity can only be achieved if it initially receives concentrate with +5% grade. It has a concentrating facility, as at present it is receiving virgin rock from Project M before being processed and refined to copper cathode. But this will likely only last until the new Roan module is up and running. The front end volume into the Sable concentrator will be limited and it will only work most efficiently if it is starting with upgraded material already with a 5+% concentrate grade. I think it needs to get the concentrate grade up to around 13% if I remember correctly an explanation given by Leon back in 2021 I believe.

Thanks ChesterGreen. very much agree with your notes from first listen of presentation. Interesting virgin rock from Project M already being processed at Sable. Presumably this small mine must be relatively close to Sable. Reassuring that it can be dealt with at Sable and provides additional confidence the modules will work as hoped.

Thanks to all for the constructive debate. Mikiesunday your time lines for the Mopani refinery look far too short to me. Surely Jubilee will need to agree terms with the new owners first before any refit commences. Abut in the next 6 months or so that doesn’t really matter. Getting the Sable and Roan plants working to capacity is the key thing. The output from the Roan and large module plant will be a mix of concentrate for sale direct to the market, with the remainder say 60% going to Sable to upgrade into copper cathode. So I cannot see the need for another refinery for at least twelve months even assuming all goes well.

Mikie I admire your positivity, and yes the potential copper production growth could happen quite quickly. You have pointed to some of the ingredients already present and I totally agree with you. That is why I already have a significant investment here.. But there is an assumption the upgrade and expansion module at Roan works as they should. After in effect two abortive attempts at Roan in the last 12 months, first with the infrastructure problems (now resolved), and the second with the non RNSd processing difficulties from apparently mixing the tailings and ROM feed (as reported by shareholders like you at the AGM), it is not surprising potential investors might just be holding off until they have some visible proof that the copper production difficulties for the ROM part of the copper strategy have been resolved. The strategy for ROM feed seems sound, but proof of profitable execution is now required. Funding for capital investment might be a problem in the current climate. Jubilee is unlikely to be generating much free cash, if any, to reinvest during this quarter. This would change with a successful Roan. But even at these very low share price levels I will not personally be investing any more until I have confirmation that the Roan upgrade and large new module is beginning to work as it should be.

Couldn’t agree more on the standardisation of wording when reporting the copper production. Replying to reasonable shareholder questions via their website is another requirement. When the term copper unit was used in the Covid days I asked for clarification. Never got an answer.

Thanks for the AGM updates Mikiesunday. The Roan concentrator produces both copper oxide and sulphide concentrate. Only the copper oxide part will be refined to copper cathode at Sable. I hope you are right that Sable will be at capacity for the cathode refining after project M is ramped up. We might get to this point in the first half of FY25 and if so that FY could be very exciting for shareholders.

Thanks to Northern and Everopeful in particular for updates emanating from the AGM. I thought the presentation has clarified the Southern Copper Strategy in particular . It’s a pity it has taken an extra year at least to get here, but I do not underestimate the difficulties in developing a new copper processing area. The upgraded processing at Roan had better work properly this time. We will start to get some real indication after the first quarter results in calendar year 2024 and if all okay things could get really exciting, with the tailings developments possibly still to come. For me the strategy is at last more credible and well explained in the new presentation.

Sable will only start to work nearer to capacity after the Roan upgrade is working fully, project M is implemented and working properly and an additional module has been employed with an ore supplier not yet known. I need to see a credible financing plan now that the South African operations are no longer the cash cow. It is clear the Southern copper strategy cannot be completed to well into 2025 FY, but if all is going well by the end of this FY then we could see rapid copper growth expansion through Fy 2025 via the modular processing units.

I would not be surprised to see an operational RNS tomorrow or Wednesday, followed by the round of interviews prior to AGM on Thursday.

It’s on his share prophets site behind a paywall.

Charles, I agree with the general thrust of your post. However the dramatic fall in PGM prices has also had a major impact on the share price. the market doesn't appear to be aware of the earnings about to come through from the chrome concentrate business, so lets hope the 1st quarter operational results make this clear.

Jubilee is employing new cutting edge processes to solve processing issues that have been problematic for years. So it should be no surprise that so far in the copper area, the ramp up of Roan has not gone as well as expected, even allowing for the major infrastructure issues at the end of last year. The results from the current upgrades to Roan though need to be good. The operational results in April next year will be crucial for investors. Hopefully they will start to show that the Southern copper strategy will be able to deliver the large returns needed for the large capital investment that has been made over the last 3 to 4 years. The Northern strategy probably has even more complex processing issues to overcome, but hopefully the large scale trials currently underway will reduce the number of teething ramp up problems that Roan seems to have had.

I was disappointed with the PGM operational result last year. It seems to have gone unnoticed that only 33K, instead of the targeted 38K PGM ozs was produced at Inyoni. Over 9K of the PGM ozs came from much lower third party processing. I will be in particular looking to see if Inyoni is meeting its much higher operational target this year. The chrome side seems to be flying, and it should be remembered Jubilee has gone from a fledgling chrome concentrate producer to potentially one of the largest producers in the world in just 6 years. I sincerely hope they can achieve something similar on the copper side over the next few years.

I am pleased to see the influence Oli appears to be having with the ESG controls and reporting developments taking more prominence, and the latest management restructuring to ensure more operational focus. .The developments at the moment seem to be on the lower risk side which is as well in such difficult market conditions. Jubilee is beginning to look like a more professional outfit. But we really need operational delivery over the next 12 months. We also need the foundations put in place to get the Northern strategy underway on the ground. The relationship with the Zambian government appears to be very good, which will be crucial if the Northern copper strategy is to succeed.

All free cash generated will be invested for growth. In my opinion there is zero chance of buy back or dividends before the end of FY 25 at the very earliest.

The entire 44K target is from Inyoni, around 25% more than last year. That would explain the lower AISC mentioned in the presentation I assume.

SeisNav, thanks a lot for all the interesting information you keep finding and sharing. You were particularly brave and helpful in publishing your earnings forecasts. It will be interesting to see how they compare with the actuals at the end of October.

I recently started to rebuild my holding in this company. I hope I am not too early. The two factors that really encouraged me was the latest chrome deal and the fact it will show up on the bottom line quickly, and what appears to be a strategic shift at Roan on the back of a new mixed ore ROM deal, the new base load. It seems Roan will largely only be processing ROM (waste) ore, and now very few tailings Assuming the new front end processing works for the mixed ores, the higher grade should enable the 10K forecasted copper tonnes to materialise.. BUT that figure was mentioned a year ago and so far jubilee has not got anywhere near to it even allowing for the downtime due to the power and water supply issues. I hope I will be nicely surprised with the volumes created since end of June up to early September in the 3rd quarter production report. Furthermore how much of the output from Roan will be passed on to Sable and how much sold as a concentrate? I am hoping the 10K is not a copper units target with a significant chunk of lower value copper concentrate units. Lets hope for a positive production forecast once the commissioning of the upgraded and upscaled front end is complete.

The Northern tailings strategy is edging forward, but we may not hearanything really significant until next spring, once the large scale testing is producing the required results for our lenders. Our current financial resources suggest it may be beneficial for a delay until then, but i hope I am proved wrong.

Roxi, there is no doubt a lot of upside potential IF everything works out as indicated by management. The major problem is there is very little financial margin for any production downtime that is not planned. Until the company gets through to probably early summer 2024 with no unforeseen circumstances, and with Akatara on stream, this is a very high risk share in my opinion. Yes there is plenty of potential upside as time goes by in this period as investors confidence is gradually restored, but there is also has a lot of potential downside if there are any production hiccups.

Excellent set of results from Sylvania this morning. Operationally a very well run company with very clear financial reporting, a lesson for Jubilee! BUT slide 16 in their corporate presentation shows up clearly the massive 75% potential fall in their Group EBITDA if the current PGM spot prices prevail throughout their FY24.

Thanks for sharing your work Seis. Very helpful.

Although I have a reasonable stake in Jubilee I want far more information on how the Northern Strategy is going to unfold with sensible time lines and plausible financing information before committing further.

Https://audioboom.com/posts/8354985-midweek-takeaway-with-leon-coetzer-ceo-of-jubilee-metals-aim-jlp-jlp. The whole interview is interesting but the last five minutes references Luansobe.

Thanks to

Agricore and others . There could be a sizeable impairment this year on the Tjate intangible asset. The discount rate applied to the model of potential cash flows to justify the size of asset in the balance sheet would need to be significantly increased I would have thought. It will not have any impact on the cash side though. There may well be be a new broom sweeping clean approach from the new chairman.

Thanks for highlighting this article. Provides a much better understanding of the scale of the issues and the very difficult political decisions that need to be taken by the Zambian government for the areas in which Jubilee have an interest in.. Would not be any surprise if the key political decisions Jubilee need, to proceed with a large part of the Northern strategy, are not made before the end of August, so delaying once again the full development and funding strategy announcement.