Member Info for Jammer1

In the Master Investor presentation by Leon, he indicated it was expected to increase the current copper tailings resource from 270m tonnes to in excess of 300m tonnes by the year end.

Even allowing for the Xmas shutdown, if the current PGM basket price is maintained to the end of December, I would not be surprised to see over £35m operational earnings announced in mid January for the half year.Amazing. And the large copper projects still to come with Roan ramping up through the first 6 months of 2021

I am in the same position as you BB2 re tomorrow’s show.

Yes I had been pondering on what a copper unit was? I shall ask at master Investor show tomorrow. My best guess is it is a copper equivalent tonne where the cobalt part of the production has been adjusted into equivalent copper tonnes.

Sumoskier, Shares were used to help secure the 150m tonne copper deal just before the last financial year end. Since then though cash should have flooded in with the take off of the PGM basket price.

JasonSax, Northern hark provided a very good summary of the key points from the video on this board.

MikieS I was wondering exactly the same thing. Surely Tjate was the only really confidential thing that was being discussed. Unfortunately I made no notes thinking the video would be available shortly after the broadcast.Leon is I believe available on the Master Investor show sometime on Friday or Saturday and hopefully he can be asked about the missing broadcast.

The current Jubilee processing strategy of tailings dumps was agreed by the Board in 2013. The non effluent policy has been present as far as I can remember. The developing green agenda for the 2020's and the way investors and investment funds might divert into companies with the right green credentials is probably a bit of luck. Being in the right metals for the green energy revolution is not luck though. Jubilee now needs to make better PR use of their marvelous green position especially when the processing and clear up of the Kabwe and Kitwe dumps are into their stride.
The copper strategy has been brilliantly thought out and just needs good execution now. The next 12 months should financially derisk the strategy, and should see a significant positive impact on the share price. One of my big concerns about the copper strategy was the ability to fund it without significant dilution. The surge in PGM prices (from a timing perspective certainly fortunate) is making the $100m investments in known projects look quite easily fundable, so that particular issue is quickly going away. Who would have thought Jubilee would have little problem in funding $100m CAPEX just a year ago? In fact if the current PGM basket price is maintained for a few more months the funding of the 3rd copper project might even be possible out of cash alone! At the moment everything seems to be going Jubilee's way, and they have carved out a fabulous strategic position in Zambia. Its almost too good to be true. Let's hope it continues to be so.

The 250,000 tonnes is the maximum projected chrome ore capacity per month of all the known processing plants Jubilee own and manage for 3rd parties from Q2 2021. The amount of ore being processed will be a key driver of the chrome earnings going forward as the majority of the ore will be processed on tolling terms, significantly reducing the risk from volatile chrome concentrate prices. The 136,122 figure I believe was the total chrome concentrate tonnage produced in the last quarter. When the chrome operations are up to full capacity from Q2 2021 my understanding is the chrome concentrate target will be around 90K tonnes per month based on the RNS's on the chrome projects issued in August.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-11-17/Platinum-market-to-see-more-than-1-million-ounce-deficit-in-2020-World-Platinum-Council.html

Couldn’t agree more TBTT

TBTT read the RNSs dated 13 and 24 August 2020. 100000 tonnes of ROM chrome ore per month does not come from one or two small chrome ore mines.Combined with the chief executives answers after recent presentations it does not take a lot of working out the supply source is almost certainly Samancor. You may be right historically about Jubilees chrome ore supplies but you are certainly not right going forward.

Couldn't agree more Jonah. The presentation of the company seems to have improved and is far more professional. Key points are clearly coming through in interviews with Leon and in the presentational material. At last the story can speak for itself without silly hype. Lets hope it continues on Wednesday. Please keep Colin away! The website is improving but when will the projects part be updated and presented properly with Gallery pictures with a little text to explain what we are looking at? On the operations side over the last year there has only been one significant disappointment. The valuable high grade PGM tailings at DCM still do not have an updated strategy to monetise them ( remember the ridiculous "in the bank" Colin statement from 2 years ago). Otherwise the management have played a blinder. The last 12 months has seen a transformed company with an exciting high growth sustainable long term future. A bit of luck with the booming PGM basket price has also been on their side. Long may it continue.

TBTT you are out of touch again re Jubilee. Over half of the chrome ore they will be processing comes from SAMANCOR run of mine. A large part of the remaining portion comes from tailings which they own, not from small chrome ore miners.

I would imagine their resources will be stretched just delivering what we know of for the next 12 months or so. Financially the committed projects will require CAPEX of some $80m to possibly $100m to deliver and the details of that funding needs to be finalised. Admittedly the expenditure will be spread over at least a couple of years. Pleased to see they have a full time CFO now, so hopefully we will see in the near future a proper CAPEX Statement. Can but hope? There is plenty of opportunities in both Zambia and South Africa so I would be surprised and a little concerned about overstretch if South America realistically came into view within the next couple of years.

Aprogerson, thanks for the additional info, but the concern I had was why had AISC gone up by an alarming $300 from Q2 when broadly there was the same level of production. M20ASH provided the answer. The consistency of the free cash amount per Ozs is somewhat reassuring but if costs were really getting out of control as it had first seemed to be, then relying on an escalating gold price to retain free cash margin would be a recipe for disaster. Will be interested in their plans to reduce costs going forwards.
I think you will find that to hit the lowest part of the production guidance 31K ozs in Q4 will be required which should be achievable.

Thanks M20ASH for a very good explanation of the change in the AISC from quarter to quarter. It should have been given by the company though.

Couldn't agree more Visitor. SLP and JLP in recent releases have indicated just how good the July to September quarter was for them in their PGM financials. Many will be surprised at how good Tharisa's annual figures will be, hinted at in the presentation. Maybe once the financials are released on 30 November the SP will begin to reflect the company's true value. Not quite as bullish as you appear to be though in assuming the current PGM basket price can be largely maintained over the next 12 months.

TBTT, yes excellent financials for the quarter at SLP. No surprise. They are blessed with a relatively high rhodium percentage in their basket so they would currently have a high gross basket price. They also exclude correctly any chrome revenue as that belongs to their sponsor mines, which of course flatters the revenue to EBITDA if you are comparing them with Tharisa or Jubilee.. Everything looks good in the short term at SLP with what is likely to be further excellent results in the current quarter and a good special dividend from the above broker forecasted rhodium and palladium prices. But the real test for me and maybe others looking say a couple of years ahead, is the new management's apparent lack of corporate development for the future. The loss of ROM ore from some of their sponsor mines is also a concern. Maybe these issues will be resolved when the management reports in January with the half year results. They will certainly have a large cash pot to invest. At the moment I look at Sylvania as a very good rhodium play only. The volatile rhodium price and the company being solely in South Africa makes them a risky play in my book and certainly not a longer term investment. This may be the reason for their share price being lower than what one would have thought it should be purely looking at their current financials.

ausnp, a good broker note by WH Ireland on 8 July indicated a fair value share price was 11.2p. For once I would suggest this is a broker note worth reading! and can be found on the Jubilee web site. Looks like the analyst had a lot of help from Jubilee as one would expect being one of the company's brokers, and they have not gone mad about future expectations. The bulls might well argue they have been over conservative.