Member Info for Jammer1

The article below, found by billyusa on the other board, explains what has been going on at DCM and why Leon has not been able to get a PGM processing deal over the line so far.
https://www.news24.com/fin24/companies/mining/legal-tug-of-war-shutters-one-of-sas-richest-chrome-mines-20201218

In effect Leon is now in charge of the company. Colin has taken a back seat. It is his strategy that has turned the company around, and he is executing the deals which have positioned the company with such exciting growth potential. With the results the company are now showing he is worth every penny. Furthermore I believe he had a reduced salary in the recent past when the company's profits and cash flow position did not justify a higher salary. Don't know if the large increase was partially catching up for the lower salary in the poorer times.
My big concern is what is the succession plan to replace Leon should anything unfortunate happen to him?
Not worried about him being poached. He has complete control to show the world you can build a processing company to the size of a major "mining" company but without a mine, and prove all the so called experts wrong.

Tharisa have recognised this and are already testing a small scale refinery. Of course they can also improve their margins, so they have indicated they will be developing their own refinery ready for when their offtake agreements with SBSW and Impala come to an end.

Sorry gsg/ highly geared. I meant to have credited to you with this from other board. My original draft did so and then I had a problem with posting and missed you inadvertently on reposting. Very interesting find by the way.

Alerted to this copper and cobalt refinery in Kitwe area currently under care and maintenance. Jubilee interested? Shows Jubilee's strong position now importing copper concentrate for refining is taxed.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3915245/ERG-placing-Chambishi-refinery-on-care-and-maintenance.html

zambiareports.com/2020/12/14/muz-seeks-govt-intervention-kcm-liquidation-case

3cardbrag TW was commenting on the rise back to 11p and is very positive. His family trust is after all a shareholder! He believes that now Jubilee’s market cap is well above £200m the company is attracting the interest of more institutional funds. He has an initial personal target of 16p and forecasted profits of £60m or FY 2021. He really likes the developing copper strategy and diversification away from South Africa. He seems to have become a big fan after interviewing Leon on his Mineprophets investor show back in early July when he realised that the copper strategy could easily double the company’s profits in a couple of years and nailing Leon to accept a dividend was on the cards in 2022.

Leon certainly should be able to reiterate no equity dilution. Since September the company should have operational cash flow of around £5.5 to £6million a month. if the high PGM basket price continues for the rest of the financial year ,they should not even need any more debt to fund their large portfolio of known new projects, and a £60m PBT for FY 2021 is well on the cards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bjv9JeCOZ0s

Isnt the Impala mine net door available as well? Although Jubilee is the minnow in the sandwich, it has the key card. Buying either or both of the other mines would not be that attractive without Jubilee's block of PGM mineral resources to ensure an adequate life of mine.

Ragnarlothbrok, I think Phoevus was indicating that they should be able to improve the chrome extraction % before the remaining material is put through the PGM beneficiation. Doing this would automatically increase the PGM grade in the material.

As Kaiser_B has stated investors/speculators have totally different reasons for selling, and the reasons are more often or not related to the belief the share price is valuing the company too high! If you are a longer term investor, then the SP movements from day to day or even month to month are not that relevant unless something fundamental has changed that needs you to review the assumptions you have made about the company's future growth. From my viewpoint nothing has changed at all, so the growth story presumably you invested into is intact. If anything I am encouraged to invest more. With a bit of patience you should get the reward you expect, provided of course the assumptions you made were realistic and correct at the time of investing. Personally I have an initial target price of about 16p to be reached in around 12 months as the copper strategy in particular starts to deliver. Others are far more bullish in this time frame. It will be particularly interesting to see how the market reacts if the operational earnings of £30m to £35m that I expect for the first half of FY2021 are announced in mid January. Another potential large catalyst to the SP would be a positive announcement on Tjate, where it is believed there are ongoing discussions.

The quality of posting today has been excellent and exactly what a share discussion board is designed for.

I must admit I was a bit cynical initially about the fine chrome DCM project. Technical excellence no doubt but could it make money in the current chrome environment. I put to Leon rather cheekily that it looked a bit like a Concorde project. Very courteously he pointed out the error of my ways. I was looking at a plant and not the process and how part or all of the process could be adapted in other areas. At the time it was becoming clear that Jubilee was to be the first company to be able to profitably take the copper out of low grade tailings and convert them into copper cathode. The key to the early part of the process was the learnings and knowledge we have gained in developing and running the ultra fine chrome facility originally at DCM. It has been the technical key to unlocking the 3 large copper tailings projects announced, with a fourth one by the looks of things on the way. It looks like parts of the process have now been incorporated at Windsor and will be at Windsor8 and at the over the road Samancor chrome plant at Inyoni. The increased efficiencies have no doubt secured the large ROM chrome ore supply contracts guaranteed at least for 3 years. So the DCM ultra fine chrome project itself may have lost money but what an investment it has turned out to be.

There are of course the standard political risks of operating in South Africa and Zambia. Operationally the copper returns are not yet proven but the proof of concept copper tailings operation that has been running at the Sable refinery since the beginning of the year has substantially de-risked the operational side as well as indicating the sort of margins that can be expected. A few months ago the funding risk for me was a big issue and how much the cash cow operations in South Africa would be able to support the large CAPEX of about $100m for the expansion in South Africa but in particular for the copper projects in Zambia, That issue has to a large extent now gone away. Banks are clearly wanting to lend for the copper projects and the surging PGM basket price means the $100m should be easily supported by the huge amount of cash now being generated with profits of £60-70m being forecasted for 2021 alone. Could the commodity prices badly turn against Jubilee. Very unlikely as deficits are now expected in all of the platinum group metals as well as copper in the near and possibly medium term future. Jubilees core metals will be at the heart of the green energy revolution. The macro winds look very favourable. The risk of financial problems on the chrome side of the business have also been substantially de-risked with only moderate exposure to the depressed chrome prices. The new ROM chrome ore supply contracts not only guarantee supply of feed to the chrome plants over the next 3 years but also large amounts of additional feed for the PGM operations. The chrome margins should increase significantly in 2021 despite there being a depressed chrome market. Internally Leon has built a very capable management team over the last 2 to 3 years, consisting of high quality process and project engineers. Jubilee has a reputation for processing excellence and for building projects on time and on budget. The real test has now arrived as to the managements team's capabilities as they have a demanding and busy schedule ahead of them over the next 12 to 18 months.

It was interesting to note that TW on his ************* website has just raised the target price for Jubilee from 9p to 16p. After the interview with Leon in July on Mineprophets, TW saw the light to the potential here over the at least the next two years. I am pleased to see he still believes that there is a lot more SP growth to come after the recent surge in the SP. He needs a lesson on what is in a PGM basket though. Forecasting £70m profits in 2021 and £100m for 2022 he mentions the surging platinum, palladium and copper prices, However the key metal for the big profits now being forecasted for 2021 is rhodium, which although only makes up 8% of the PGM basket by volume, makes up around 50% by value.. This little unknown metal is in deficit at the moment and forecasted to stay that way . The current and anticipated continuing very high prices are making a major contribution to funding Jubilee's exciting and rapidly developing copper strategy in Zambia.

Thank you Visitor and others for sharing the details of your financial calculations to forecast profits for 2021. Pleasing and reassuring you are all in the same ballpark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgb6oy0OJM0

Many thanks to tones on Tharisa board for posting the above link. The potential for prices of metals linked to the green energy revolution to soar is explained. Certainly makes one think that Tjate is definitely in play now. Becoming more convinced that the recent post resuLt Q&A webcast not being made available is linked to perhaps Leon and Colin saying too much about Tjate discussions.

Jubilee booked £3m of copper cathode production in their revenue shown in note 3 of the 2020 annual accounts on page 67. I believe this was solely from the copper tailings on site at the Sable refinery. More details of what is currently happening will be released in the January operational update. The target production figures towards the 25000 tonnes goal in 3 to 4 years are being refined all the time as the feasibility studies on the copper tailings projects are undertaken. I am expecting a more detailed announcement about the copper production targets also within the operational update in mid January as well as a 4th copper tailings project to be announced by the year end.

A steady just over a 20% increase in the share price in 3 days, and there has not been any specific company news. Yes metal prices are continuing to strengthen but what is really behind the strong buying this week. Surely one or more large investors are accumulating. Could it be institutional funds or could it be that Tjate is really now in play? Asked at the Master Investor Show today about the missing Q&A webcast after the annual results. No proper reply! Radio silence.

Leon's presentation available on the Master Investor show currently running on line is now available on the Jubilee website.