Member Info for Jammer1

Hoke, I think your assessment of the management over the last 12 months is very harsh.. Fortunately I largely sold out of Jubilee and all metal producing companies, including Sibanye, because of the developing macro situation and the likely impact on commodity prices. Hasn't Sibanye's share price fallen a significant amount over the last 12 months as well even with Froneman in charge. The only big management mistake I have seen this year was the water problem at Roan, which has now been properly addressed. The possible arrangement you mentioned with a link up with Sibanye would make a lot of sense though, especially if Mopani was acquired by Sibanye. The electricity disaster that unfolded in Southern Africa, and the quickly declining PGM prices, has left the company without the cash they had expected to have in their coffers at this point before investing even further than the existing commitment in the Northern copper strategy. A strategic investment along the lines of DRD would help to resolve that. Jubilee are currently correctly seeking relatively low capital and low risk investments where they can build on the infrastructure and foundations they have already created. When the commodity cycle turns more favourable and the politicians in both South Africa and Zambia make the decisions needed, they should then be very well placed.

Just do a search for Sibanye Stillwater Hopes To Offer A Metal Mosaic and then bring up article. I was able to read the whole article without being required to join..

That would seem a very optimistic timeline SeisNav for a refinery 3 to 4 times the size of the one at Kabwe. Jubilee will also need a new concentrating facility which presumably would be a significant expansion of the Roan facility before any refining can be done. Personally I cannot see any production of saleable metal over and above that coming from the Sable refinery until the first half of the FY 25. Isn’t that why Leon indicated a 24 K tonne copper capacity by the end of the 2024 calendar year to analysts?
Other comments from other sources on this board seem to not understand why there is such a low copper metal production target fro the end of this FY. We all know about the problems that were not overcome until the end of February. The final 4 months will also be curtailed by the expansion of the front end of the Roan concentrator to be able to put through ROM material as well as tailings from early May as indicated in the Q&A following the investor meet presentation by Leon.

Thanks for all the research SeisNav. Assuming the tender is won, $200m is a very large investment. The. Financial terms and exactly what the capital is being spent on will be key. With the investment at Mopani presumably on top of this, plus the expansion of concentrating facilities at Moan as well, the financing terms and financial risk will be very interesting for what is currently only a relatively small company. Surely the risk of expansion into the Eastern Limb in South Africa would be overstretching the finances

At the moment Jubilee are probably finding it difficult to fund fully the Northern Strategy without dilution. My best guess is it will be at least $150m. And if they expand into the Eastern Limb as well think in terms of $200m. This is going to have to be spread over 2 or 3 years at least, and Leon has already indicated in his super interview with Crux Investor that we are now in a period of cash build and other than the Northern Strategy there is no other capital commitment on the horizon at present. Expanding too quickly would be far too risky.

If Jubilee is undervalued then what about Tharisa. Fabulous set of results today. On all normal financial metrics they would appear to be grossly undervalued. Regular dividend payer, exciting growth prospects over next two years, much larger and profitable than Jubilee but market capitalisation about the same.

The dividend is based on the adjusted net profit after tax. The adjustment is largely for the one off accounting items. It does not include an adjustment for the foreign currency translations.

The foreign currency translation is a result of the reduced value of the south african and zimbabwian assets when they are converted into dollar values. For example the appreciation of the dollar would have reduced the south african asset rand values by around 20% the reporting period when converted into dollars. See note 10 on p25 of the executive summary of the consolidated financial report. This is a non cash item.

And with a lot of cobalt.

Many comments on this board would appear to show the contributor has not viewed and listened to the Investor Meet Company presentation post annual results in October. I would highly recommend that you do, and especially listen to the answers given by Leon in the questions section at the end of the presentation.
Unless you are an investor with at least a 3 year view forget all about dividends and share buybacks. There will not be any. Leon has clearly stated they are not on the table until the northern Zambia developments currently being finalised are completed.
All free cash from operational earnings will be needed for the growth in Zambia and possibly in South Africa. At the end of the last financial year in June there was only $20m of cash in the kitty. The aspired Zambian Northern growth is 4 times the size of the developments for the South. It will involve doubling the current tailings stock, building two concentrators each probably twice the size of Roan, and acquiring or being able to access two refineries each around double the size of Kabwe. To achieve the aspiration indicated will probably require a capital spend in excess of $100m and possibly nearer $150m . Throw in the Eastern Limb in South Africa and you can broadly guess the capital cost could be approaching $200m. The actual size of the Northern development is fundamentally dependent on the successful negotiations for the refineries and Leon indicated these may not now be concluded until the end of 1st quarter 2023. Which is all well and good as a lot of cash needs to be built up to partially support the northern developments. The desire is to fund these developments with Jubilee's own resources and debt leveraged from the stronger balance sheet to avoid further dilution. I am not expecting firm funding plans until he end of quarter 1 2023 at the earliest.

I would suggest you listen to the very recent mining interview on crux investor regarding the complete lack of CAPEX funds available for any copper production expansion plans in the current climate. The surging CAPEX costs have already been mentioned by Leon and the complete silence on the very near term development plans for the Northern Zambian copper strategy is hardly a surprise. As can be seen by the cash in the bank at the end of June Jubilee is in no position to commit to major CAPEX from its own resources currently. Buckle down the hatches, get the new investments working as efficiently as possible and bring on the small extra cobalt processing is the order of the day until the looming world wide recession runs its course.

At Inyoni we now have the ultra fine chrome processing facility as well as a fine chrome part. I believe the only saleable part which Jubilee owns is from the ultra fine facility. I also believe that Both the Windsor chrome plants incorporate a fine chrome facility but not the ultra fine process. Perhaps someone with more knowledge than me can tell me what the key differences are between the fine chrome part and the ultra fine chrome parts are, and the level of chrome extraction Tharisa’s new fine chrome processing is through their new Vulcan plant in comparison.

Thanks for the work SeisNav. I believe though you have significantly overestimated the Inyoni production in H1 of the FY 2022. The update indicated that the 8018 ozs for Q1 of CY 2022 was 75% greater than the average from Inyoni in the two quarters making up H1 of FY 2022. This indicates the Inyoni production in H1 FY 2022 was around 9000 ozs which I presume excluded the 6000ozs partly processed. So around 5000ozs came from the JV in H1 FY 2022.

A discussion board is supposed to just be that, discussion. This board should accommodate both bull and bear statements, with hopefully them being justified in some way. Nothing is achieved by attacking individual posters. If you disagree with them set out the rational for your disagreement. As far as I am concerned I personally agree with a lot of the so called bear statements that have recently been made. At last some realism.

One only needs to look at the half year results and the last operational update to see the year end financial results will be very poor when compared with last years. As I have previously stated a significant part of the PGM production even in the second half of FY 2022 will be coming from the joint venture ,which significantly reduces operational margins. The high level of inflation , especially in transport costs, is squeezing the margin even more. Coupled with the delays for Roan the copper earnings in this financial year are not going to come to the rescue.

Having said that the operational builds are very impressive. Overcoming the COVID obstacles for Roan has been a credit to the management. The technical expertise provides the USP . But what has not been a credit is keeping shareholders in the dark until recently about the full cost and the production impact of the Inyoni rebuild. Like we are still in the dark about the huge capital cost of the Northern copper strategy. Not for much longer I hope, and yes of course as a long term shareholder I also hope for little or no dilution to make up the gap between the operational cash flows out of Zambia and the capital needed to build some significant plants. If the published timetables for the build of these plants is going to be met, although I suspect the plan is already some 6 months behind, Horney's calculation of the capital raise needed might be on the low side. Based on Leon's own words the Roan copper processing facility would cost more like £25M now, and there are at least two of these required plus a refurbishment of a large refinery plus a cobalt processing facility as well..

Yes financials should be a lot better in H1 of FY 2023, when the benefits of the £40m capital spend should start to really flow through into the financials.. But be careful not to expect too much from Roan. Target production or often target capacity figures are just that, targets. The actuals could be significantly less as indicated in the operational report about the possible variations in grade per month. The target is also in copper unit tonnes. So some of it will be just concentrate and not the final processed metal, reducing the operational margin that might be expected. Previous margin guidance has been for metal production. The potential rabbit in FY 2023 though is the small cobalt production but I have absolutely no idea what operational margins can be expected on that.

Taking a 2 year view I really like Jubilee's prospects. Let's hope new institutional investo

In effect a repeat of the interview on pro active last week. The short term issue is that the actual financial results for FY 2022 will not be good due to the delay at Roan and probably a longer effective closure of the PGM circuit during the first half than expected, together with still significant JV reliance and escalating transport costs. The PGM prices have held up well despite the Chinese lockdowns probably as a result of the Russian situation. It will not be until the first half of the FY 2023 that the financials will start to reflect the true position but how much will the market look forward? The other worrying aspect is that Jubilee has still not set out the capital cost of the Northern copper strategy in Zambia , the final deal for the refinery with Mopani or the exact means of funding it. They were far from clear about the full cost of the Inyoni build and it’s impact either. They are now going to have to be much more open and hopefully the change at the top will result in that.

Go to the company website. At the bottom of the homepage is the March investor presentation. On slide 3 the CFO and the rest of the senior management team is named together with their CVs, all of which look impressive.

Potential yes! But as always there is no clear guideline on just how much the whole Northern Refinery strategy in Zambia and the expansion to the Eastern Limb is going to cost and how the very large capital commitment is going to be met and over what timescale. At a time of shrinking operating margins due to rampant inflation of costs , and certainly short term concerns about commodity pr ices as a world wide recession potentially looms, it is of no surprise to me that the share price cannot move forward. I was not impressed either with the sudden treatment of the chrome as a by product to try and cover up the large increase in the PGM costs of production in the current financial year.

Leon’s quote the ramp up in production only commences in May.

We have the following potential benefits contributing to post tax profit increases next year
(a) no repeat of the £17m write off, although the size of the Tjate asset in the balance sheet is a concern unless a deal comes along
(b) a significant increase in chrome revenues which should translate into additional post tax earnings
(c) anticipated significantly lower production costs for the targeted 50K ozs of PGMs
(d) commencement of the Roan copper although that will only be significant in Q2 Cy 2022
(e) possibly better PGM mix with a higher rhodium content.

PGM prices look as though they are going to be relatively weak until mid 2022 with the continuing chip shortage for car manufacturers. I am expecting a large drop in PGM revenues compared to the 2021 FY which will result in a sharp contraction in the post tax profit contribution from this source. I am hoping that post tax profits n FY 2022 will be similar to this years but I fear principally as a result of a much lower amortisation figure in FY2022.

As has been already stated 2022/23 (and then 2023/4 with cobalt potential ) are building up to be stellar financial years as the copper production really gets off the ground, and hopefully the chip shortage has been resolved for the car production. But steel yourselves for what will appear to be poor half year financial results in January 2022, as Inyoni was closed for a large part part of Q3 CY 2021.

One potential negative in the accounts is a law suit pending with Riverfort .We also have high inflationary pressures on costs as well.

The amazing construction and technical work that has been done last year and now into the new financial year has set up the stellar financial performances realistically expected for FY 2023 and FY 2024.

See the RNS of 15 Sept. part of the placing proceeds are being used to expand the cobalt circuit at Sable in order to test out the process facility for the proposed new cobalt refinery as part of Northern refinery developments. This implies some cobalt will be produced but probably not that much in 2022.