Member Info for Jammer1

Just to clarify. Oak bloke does not have a paid for subscription account. In my opinion his analytic articles are excellent. He publishes about 3 articles a week on different companies and themes, sometimes more. They are all available on his substack account . Jubilee is one of his company ideas for 2026. His published performance record over the last two years has been extremely good. He regularly updates his performance for his ideas, warts and all. He only prompts readers to contribute to a charity he supports. Fair enough.

Thanks for posting this video link. Not seen Segun so excited before. in one year's time it seems he is expecting a significant mine life extension to segiola and work to go underground already commenced, 90000 ozs production in 2026, investment decision made on Doute and construction already commenced, and maiden resources declared on the two gold exploration projects. Can he get a 2 year extension to the tax concession as well?

Excellent detailed article by Charles Archer on his substack account as above. Coupled with the excellent investor meet discussion yesterday I have been persuaded to average down significantly.

At last a grown up discussion dealing with all the very awkward questions professionally. So pleased to see the influence of a strong FD. All investors should listen to this broadcast. While the FD Johnny is in place keeping a tight rein on the capital allocation in line with the strategy set out for the copper business, I am a very reassured shareholder, assuming the vote to sell the South African business is favourable. Retaining a very influential reducing shareholding in the South African business as the deferred payments are made was a key risk for me and answered very well by Johnny.

As far as I am concerned the first decent financial analysis of the sale is set out by the Oak Bloke on his you tube account. Well worth the listen although he might soon publish his analysis on his sub stack account as well.

Blackstone shares are up 25% in the last week. The shares to be received shortly would be valued at £7m at current market price. Far more than the market cap! And there would be in the money options as well. As Charles Archer's recent article stated, monetisation or collateralisation of this stake could unlock critical project capital for Hope and Gorob, once its new mining licence is official. This company looks to be grossly undervalued.

Thanks for your reply Mikie.

Mikie, Jubilee will not be anywhere near 2000 tonnes of copper per month around mid 2025. The run rate in the guidance suggest it should be around 2k tonnes per quarter. How can it increase threefold?

Heres the reason in my opinion. The Sable upgrade is now scheduled to be completed by year end of 2025. the timing has gone back 6 months! I am sure as at mid year 2025 Leon's statement is accurate, BUT based on Sable's capacity and capability at that time, and the grade of ore being delivered. Please note Leon would not commit to a time schedule to get to 2K tonnes a month in the last Sunday Roast. I think he indicated the speed at which the transaction for the other two mines could be completed, and financing would be two key issues..

And that brings me on to the current cash flow in Zambia. Limited, if any cash flow will be coming from South Africa, there is a short term significant trade finance debt to be dealt with as a result of the fast chrome growth. It seems to me this situation might prevail for a few months in Zambia whilst the copper sales grow . It would not be any surprise to me if Jubilee are using some of the money set aside for the Sable upgrade to develop the mines and leaching trials., hence the Sable delay.. The sooner the IRH deal proceeds so Jubilee can be repaid all their outlays on that project, the better from a cash flow perspective..

By the way thank you for your update from the AGM. I was surprised though that the points I have made above appear to have not come into any questions or conversations.

It’s a paid for interview. There will not be any proper interrogation.

If the first Q figs are poor as expected, they would surely want to reassure with Oct figures as it is the first full month under new power agreement and Ramp up at Roan should have been well underway.

The quarterly operational update was promised no later than the second week in November by RNS last year if I recall correctly. Expecting it around that time as the More importanOctober figures for copper should be available thent

At last a properly detailed operational update with far more realistic timescales. I know an operational report does not contain financials but there is still a black hole funding the expansion even within these longer time scales.

The best copper margins are supposed to come from the growth in the small to medium mines and filling up Sable. By my top of the head calculation that will require at least $25m to $30m to bring in the two regional hubs with fully secured supply of material, upgraded working mines and processing near the mines to an upgraded concentrate.. From that point of time we should have a very profitable copper side to the company, but where is the capital going to come from and how long until we get to this point?

I have probably far too much invested here as I actually believe the copper operations will begin to deliver in FY 2025. We will have to wait for guidance possibly at the end of July once I hope the upgrade for Roan is properly working. But I am not expecting miracles in Fy25. Some of the forecasted copper unit tonnes quoted on here and and by the rampers on the Sunday Roast for FY 25 assume everything will be working instantly from1 july 2024.Well it will not be. Project M will presumably be deiivering ROM ore throughout the first quarter and may get up to 25000 tonnes a month by the end of the 1st Q for a start. I believe there is a typo in the RNS re copper grade for project M. It should be 1.5% to 3%, not 3 to 4% as it appears Project G is. Project G will be doing well tobe delivering ROM ore to Sable by the end of Q1 and ramp up to 20000 tonnes by the end of Q2. And then don't forget the rainy season, covering the latter part of Q2 and a lot of Q3 of FY25. I hope the roads are good enough and the pits still workable. The lower grades going into Roan will bring production down there to 8k to 9k of copper units in concentrate. With a fair wind Jubilee might be producing at a rate of 20K tonnes of copper units by the end of the FY25 but they will not be anywhere near that for FY25 production as a whole.

And at what margin will the production be at for FY 25. I haven't got much of a clue. There are so many unknown variables. But it will not be anything like $5K per copper unit in Fy25 as has been indicated. That might be possible for a fully operational and efficient Sable plant for copper cathode and with a $9.5Kper tonne copper price, but a large proportion of the output will be concentrates with a presumable smaller margin.

Finally there is a lot of work and building to be done to to get both Sable and Roan working to capacity and efficiently. A concentrate processing unit at each of Project M and G, potentially a new refining part at Roan, the build of the expanded sulphide part at Sable . Looks more like by the end of FY 26 to me rather than FY 25 to get that lot sorted.. And the funding for this investment?. Yes the sable part has been secured but the rest has not. The working capital build is going to be very significant, and the copper profits will not be building quickly enough until at least FY 26 in my opinion to just support the investments mentioned let alone further mine transactions and the associated processing units required for them..

RBL reassessment due end of March? If so should hear something next week.

Seis Nav

In a sunday roast in November I believe, Leon indicated the margin for own chrome would be around $40 per tonne, 4 times the amount for toll processing. using the 41/59 split from the presentation you will see the 2ndQ figs came in with $10 per tonne margin for tolled proportion and $42 for own chrome. Very much in line with what Leon indicated. This though doesn't work for the first quarter . This may be because higher prepayment costs for the Thutse were included without the benefit of the production coming through in that quarter. A clearer picture should appear for Q3.

In my view take Leon's $40 per tonne margin for the new modules as the best guide as to earnings from each at current prices..

The SPV will not own a refinery based on current information. It presumably will own the modules as it is paying for them. So the full margin up to the copper concentrate stage from the modules will be the SPV's. After that the refining margin will depend on the refining contract agreed with the refinery provider, which might be Jubilee. Unless this is on a toll basis the additional margin available for selling cathode rather than concentrate will not belong to the SPV. I will be seeking clarification about whether Jubilee will be doing the refining ( it has been indicated they might do some initially ) and on what basis, from the investor meet on Wednesday.

It should be noted the SPV will only be selling concentrate. The margin within the SPV itself will probably be nearer $2k rather than$4K at current prices. The interesting part is who will the SPV sell the concentrate to for further refining and on what terms? Initially some of it could be to Jubilee to fill out the refining capacity at Sable. If so hugely beneficial to Jubilee particularly if not on a toll basis. Not only would Jubilee get the refining margin but at the same time they would significantly reduce the fixed costs per tonne at Sable.

There are some big lessons for many posters here. In all of the excitement over the last few weeks, there has been few if any clear references to the very tight cash position Jubilee was clearly in. It has been obvious that very little profit, if any at all has been made since the end of June with the continuing collapse of the PGM prices and the closure of the Roan concentrator since the middle of September. Any cash generated from operations would have been needed for the existing expansion commitments, stay in business capital requirements and covering of central costs. The latest expansion opportunities are very exciting of course, and potentially company makers, but they will not generate any real cash until the latter part of the 2025 financial year. at the earliest

Jubilee desperately needs Roan to be up and running efficiently very soon. The delay of component parts in the South African port is not helping and I certainly want to hear exactly what is going on and the realistic time line to get Roan operating commercially . Fingers crossed the new large module and improvements in the Roan concentrator all work as expected.

For phase 1 up to the first four modules of the waste rock project , it looks like Sable will completely deal with the refining of the majority or even all of the copper oxide concentrate to copper cathode, as well as the concentrating of the copper sulphide rock discard from the waste rock project. Sable will presumably purchase these materials from the SPV at a commercial rate as they are produced by the modules. This will then not only completely fill the expanded Sable refinery, significantly reducing its fixed cost per copper tonne but also generate a further layer of revenue for Jubilee from the waste rock project. But there is a wait of 15 to 18 months for this to positively reflect in the financials!

Couldn’t agree more Marine.