RE: RNS & interviews17 Sep 2022 10:52
The first thing to analyze is the activity in the near future.
1. Second compressor installed with improved stability and flow rates within the next 4 weeks.
2. Sidetrack in and running to help achieve the same as above before Xmas-given Angus is habitually late.
Effectively we should know before Xmas this year about steady production and sales.
Profits will be a lot higher as the gas prices are much higher and there are massive tax losses available for relief. I expect an average price of £3 per therm over the next 3 years at least and that is where most the production is. From Jan 2023 onwards, we should achieve full production capacity and simple math is half of the production is headged and the other half not.
Therefore 1.5 million therms at .40 net of expenses is £600K per month and the remainder at £3 equates to £4.5 million a month. Total revenue per month is a comfortable £5.1 million a month.
Any higher gas price or increased production (would not hold my breath considering past/current track record) will be a huge bonus.
Any further discovery of gas in the existing field will be another bonus.
And in a few years , gas storage valuation may kick in which too is worth heaps of money.
Based upon the above , the company valuation should be at least £300 million NOW equating to 10 pence per share with all warrants issued. And IMHO revenues ,prices will make this very apparent in Q1 2023.
Just need patience with nail biting skills.