Member Info for JamesOxford

@Simplies: 'Feeling lucky this week! Hoping this constant holding cycle changes! something has to give, could it be this week?'

Well from the macro perspective, the Federal Reserve meets Wednesday, followed by BOE on Thursday this week. The Federal Reserve will drop interest rates probably by .50%. This should (I stress 'should') be a boost to macro share prices in the US and in the UK. If the BOE also drops interest rates, this should be a double whammy with a share price increase Thursday (dip down Friday due to short-term profit takers). Then rise on Monday. That's my short (very short term) view for this week and next.

Also, we are now leading up to when serious private investors and institutional investors start to take punts. Watch this Capita space!

@Blissful CH and Zephyr is dealing with natural formations - nothing is certain. CH has done an excellent job so far and positive news will be available in due course. Not sure if you have seen the report/video yet. Watch from 5.00 minutes if you're in a rush - this should aliviate any fears and doubts...

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1055664/zephyr-energy-ceo-on-successful-state-36-2r-well-production-test-result-1055664.html

@NoFear. If you choose to think of me (and Broomtree) as 'some kind of undeclared shorter that likes to play it both ways' then that is my point. It's fanciful thinking. You appear to spend far too much time focused on the share price and shorters and what is driving the share price up, down or sideways that you run the real risk of only looking for an immediate return at the earliest opportiunity, rather than the serious return in 12-18 months time. I think you have far too much of a day-trader mentality i.e. it's all about the share price.

The fact is the share pirce will always move. Shorters are not a big deal at all. Focus on them if you like, however, it is a rather pointless and fruitless endeavor.

It would be far better to focus on Capita Plc and any news within the industry. Alternatively, spend time on research into other investment opportunities on the LSE and elsewhere. You should always have at least 2-3 already qualified potential investment opportunities at all times, so you can invest as and when the opportunity presents itself.

Whether you choose to belive me or not (I don't actually care either way), as mentioned to you previously, I'm in Capita for the medium-long term and have built up now to £200,000 investment (I do prefer round figures) with further investment to come after the next set of results. I am not alone. Capita is on a lot of investors' radars at the moment. No doubt you will find that more serious private investors (and investment companies) will start to take a position prior to and after the next set of Capita's results.

NoFear - you are clearly into the daily movement of the Capita share price. I am worried that you have become somewhat a 'slave' to the Capita share price. The share price does not care how much you invested, how much you paid, or whether you invested or not. It matters not to the share price.

AH and HP cannot control the Capita share price in any way whatsoever - no matter how many RNS announcements are made. I agree with Broomtree - too many RNS announcements can be viewed as a negative...and desperate.

With regards to shorters - forget about them...they attach to shares like fleas on cardigans...they win some, they lose some. Shorters have no material impact on share prices and/or the direction of share prices.

To ensure you have made the right investment - after you understand the financials (as you know Capita is in turnaround mode and has made huge strides in a short period of time), ask yourself these 3 simple questions:

1. Do you like the direction Capita is headed?

2. Do you like Capita's senior management; and their transparency and attitude towards stakeholders and shareholders?

3. Do you like the marketplace in which Capita operates?

If the answer is yes, then stay invested and top up on the lows. No need to monitor the share price on a daily basis - the rewards will come sooner than you think.

@NoFear: 'In the end I managed to corner 'her' like a man would do in night club on the pull'

Lock up your daugters NoFear is on the loose!

@SK: Based on your post, you could have added any company name in your last paragraph. SK you are a wind-up merchant. Plain and simple.

I can only put in down to that you applied for a job at Capita, and your application was rejected. No surpirse there.

@Kipper9 'I don't want to sound like a bl**dy parrot on repeat, but we need some RNS contract win news to lift us to the next level.......'

Capita has 3 top priorities - but I've added a couple more...

1. Cash in the business: Achieved due to the sale of Capita One for circa £180 million.

2. Debt reduction (a distant second to cash in the business): Achieved due to the sale of Capita One. It can now significantly reduce debt and completely eliminate any and all financial pressures/covenants from lenders.

3. Invest in top human talent (EG recent appointment of new MD Germany), technology and AI. The benefits in investment in focused, relevant technology and AI will be clear for all to see.

4. Cost efficiencies (right behind No 3). Strategy is clearly set. Therefore, the focus is on all operations and the attainment of cost efficiencies.

5. Growth in terms of revenue (a distant No 5). Most current contracts (and therefore revenues) will continue to 'tick over'. Although new revenue is important, it cannot be achieved 'at all costs'. New sales must be targeted and costed (with most contracts within the margins clearly already outlined by AH). Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity.

I have always said it will be a long road to recovery. However, AH and co have made quick strides and to date the results have been rather spectacular.

The sale of Capita One was major and ticked lots of boxes. Let the dust settle. No need for any new RNS updates for a while yet. Trust in AH and co - so far so good. The Capita share price will take care of itself in due course.

@Kipper9: 'One thing someone (?) on here was saying was that the C1 cash was already in the price at 18/19p.; that the increase from 14/15p was the 'C1 bounce'. This seems to have been confirmed as since the cash landed the SP hasn't moved much. So that was a good call.'

I'm pretty sure that 'someone' was the JO. The share price was not expected to rise too much after the completion of the sale of Capita One, as the cash deposit was expected and therefore was already 'baked in' to the share price.

Zephyr's RNS Update 6 September (4 days ago):

"The Board is now considering all options, including producing from the State 36-2R and the potential to materially increase the drained area of the well via the extension of the current lateral. Safe operations and capital efficiency will be taken into consideration when evaluating the next steps for the Paradox project. In parallel, and given these highly positive results, we have commenced discussions around asset-level partnership opportunities with U.S.-based industry partners. In all, the findings from the two production tests have considerably advanced our understanding of the Paradox Basin and have opened up a highly effective new development alternative. We believe this could be meaningful as we seek to unlock significant additional value for our shareholders."

Rather than speculate on 'what ifs...' with regards to next steps, I prefer to take CH's RNS update mentioned above at face value. CH and co have lots of spinning plates in the air at the moment, so a little patience is required. Due to confidential discussions and negotiations, CH would be somewhat limited in what he can/cannot say. CH's next step/s will be announced in due course. The Zephyr share price does not currently reflect the clear potential. When a partner/investor is announced with next steps Zephry's share price will rise very, very sharply.

See...now if I type SavagePuss (rather than SavagePu...well you know the rest!) it works. Capital letters are back!

Technology amazes me!

Always, look on the bright side of life, da dum....

i juts realised if you say savage***** (savagep-u-s-s-y) it not only adds ***** in place of p-u-s-s-y. it also removes all the capital letters in your post. well well...learn something new every day. er, don't expect to read any capital letters in this post.

It filtered I meant to say aka Savagep-u-s-s-y). I will have to change it to @SavagePuss.

@savagekeyboard (aka savage*****): 'i remain in the belief that the next set of h2 results will be poor and it's no secret that the sale of c1 has bought ah and cpi some time.'

why do you believe 'the next set of h2 results will be poor'? this seems like a rather sweeping statement. please explain your meaning of 'poor'. please provide specifics as to how and why you have arrived at such a conclusion.

why do you belive 'it's no secret that the sale of c1 has bought ah and cpi some time.'? what does this even mean? why would ah use £180 million to buy time? buy time for what? please explain.

your above statements lack detail and insight. in fact, your statements appear to me to be be conclusions. your conclusions have no rational thought, explaination or justification whatsoever. you need to explain yourself.

i am open to any proper discussion and insight. please enlighten me. i look forward to your reply.

@savagekeyboard: a day or so back you stated: 'please take the time to examine cpi's financials properly as they're absolutely diabolical!'

today, you stated: 'imo capita cannot imminently go bankrupt - yes, i believe the next set of results (h2) will fall short of those expectations conveyed at the last h1 results but there's no imminent threat of bankruptcy for cpi.'

be careful savagekeyboard (aka savagecat) you're losing your 'bite'. you've become more mellow and softer in your outlook towards capita. you've become more like a playful kitty cat. to reflect your new personaility and more flexible attitude, from now on i think i'll refer to you as 'savage*****cat'. actually i'll call you 'savage*****'...less keystrokes and all that.

if this new and improved outlook continues, will savage***** will finlly see the light on capita and invest (before it's too late)...?

@GoCPI 'CPI's outcomes from here on is binary - either we get to bankruptcy from here that takes the SP to zero or Adolfo executes the long awaited turnaround that gives us 2 to 3x from these levels in 2025/26 and maybe more if the economy delivers under Labour.'

I can only think you had the Sunday blues. One of those days, when it was wet outside, the car wouldn't start, and your Sky TV was on the blink...

Capita cannot now go bankrupt. No way, nadda, nope. Capita has just completed the sale of Capita One (a 10 x multiple on Capita One's 2023 EBITDA of circa £21 million) and as a result circa £180 million cash is in the bank. Not exactly chump change! This one key business disposal has significantly strengthened Capita's balance sheet. Capita's debt is now minimal. No lender will put any pressure whatsoever on Capita to dispose of any further assets. In fact, AH will only dispose of another business/asset should it be out of alignment with Capita's future core strategic line of business; or for a clear cost efficiency purpose. Be in no doubt, AH and Capita can move forward with absolute confidence. AH as CEO and PA as CEO can now take time to consider their options as to how best to use the cash in the business. For example, keep cash in the business, pay down certain debt/s, and invest in the right areas for the future (EG. hire exceptional talent, invest in technology and AI etc.) to streamline operations, drive cost efficiencies, and develop growth.

@bubbles59 '...in 3-5 years this should be a life-changing opportunity at these prices'

I am more confident that that. Based on several factors currently in play, I predict the Capita share price will double in 12 months from now. Initially, I thought 12-24 months, however, I have revised it to 12 months (even this timeframe may be conservative). The fact is that Capita is in a positive financial position right now (far sooner than predicted)...not in 6 or 12 months time...right now. Capita's balance sheet has been significantly strangthened. In addition, senior management is key to the turnaround. Take an in-depth look into the senior management team at Capita - all of whom are highly capable. To date, AH has not put a foot wrong. The strategy and methodology has been clearly articulated; the operations both in the UK and overseas are being streamlined; the margins are achieveable; the operational costs can be further reduced (not only by further disposals, but also as outlined in Capita's Capital Markets Day held on 13 June).

It is highly likely that institutional investors will invest in Capita, if not before; then certainly after the next set of results (where the sale of Capita One and it's cash prize of £180 million is officially 'baked in', along with other operational savings).

IMO & DYOR

Broker Tip - Zephyr Energy:

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity raised their target price on exploration and production firm Zephyr Energy from 14.0p to 16.0p on Friday following the publication of the group's hotly-anticipated 36-2R production test results.

Zephyr's eagerly awaited second production test of the State 36-2R well in its Utah-based Paradox acreage achieved a peak production rate of over 2,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day, consisting of roughly 1,590 boepd of gas, and approximately 510 boepd of condensate/light volatile oil at peak production, with these condensate yields increasing towards the end of the test.

"This a very strong result landing towards the top end of Zephyr's expectations and implies an attractive commercial profile using non-hydraulic stimulation methods, presenting a lower risk/cost method for future development in the Paradox acreage," said Canaccord Genuity.

Canaccord Genuity, which has a 'speculative buy' rating on the stock, noted that Zephyr has now initiated the process of finding a financial partner to accelerate the Paradox project's development roll-out.

"Management believes that the wealth of data from drilling the State 16-2, 36-2, and 36-2R wells, alongside 3D seismic, core samples, stimulation data and recent production test results provides a strong offering for potential partners to gain comfort in the potential of the Paradox acreage," said the Canadian bank.

Canaccord added that success at Paradox could also potentially be a catalyst for attracting a partner at Zephyr's neighbouring Salt Wash helium play.

Broker Tip - link below:

https://www.investments.lloydsbank.com/markets-and-commentary/market-news/article/?id=17451876&type=bsm#:~:text=Analysts%20at%20Canaccord%20Genuity%20raised,36%2D2R%20production%20test%20results.

Zephyr's share price finished up 10.53% as at COB 6 September on LSE. This was ranked in the top 10 (7th highest) in terms of percentage increase in share price on the FTSE AIM All Share as at COB 6 September on LSE. Given the LSE has been down for the last 6 days in a row, this is a very nice result in terms of share price increase in percentage terms.

As Zephyr's RNS update and media/investment coverage is read and absorbed over the weekend, it is likely the share price will increase further from early next week. After that, the Zephyr share price will increase substantially once CH and co have taken the time to assess the options available and announce the next steps in Zephyr's journey. Until that time, personally I don't care what happens to the Zephyr share price, I'm not selling.

@SavageKeyboard 'PJT12 - It has plenty of relevance because some on here have been saying CPI can hit £1 SP'.

Not me SavageKeyboard, I predict the Capita share price will double from it's current levels in 12 months. In the near term, I predict the Capita share price will steadily climb from the current very low base in the lead-up to the next set of results, and spike upwards once the next set of results are released. I have no doubts whatsoever that the Capita turnaround story will be clearly evident in the next set of results for all stakeholders and investors to see.

As mentioned previously, I do consider you an incompetent investor. My advice to you is to drop your blinkered view of the world. Listen more (...especially to smart, wise and sucessful investors) and talk less. Invest in yourself - start with a basic accountancy course. Accountancy is the language of business.

@SavageKeyboard 'JO - for clarity since you seemed to query. No, I've never worked for CPI.'

Thanks for your reply SavageKeyboard. That narrows it down. You say you never worked for Capita, so you cannot possibly be a disgruntled ex-employee of Capita (who used to worked in the mail room). Therefore, I surmise that you applied for a job at Capita and your application (probably for a job in the mail room) was rejected.

@SavageKeyboard The main issue with unqualified and incompetent investors (like yourself) is that you look at all of the results in a very piecemeal way. You focus almost entirely on 'pieces' of the results (for example declining revenues) in order to support your negative and very blinkered view of Capita. You are so desperate to be 'proven' right in your predictions on Capita that you rely on pieces of past results to further your 'cause'. However, as in incompetent investor, you fail to understand that Capita's past results are merely a 'snapshot' of Capita on that particular day. Therefore, Capita's results are only relevant on the day of publication, and yet you rely on them almost entirely.

As mentioned previously (as I doubt that you read my post): It is you who needs to examine Capita's results and disposals. You have failed to identify key areas in the results which clearly show turnaround potential, which has now been cemented in place by the completion of the sale of Capita One. You will have to wait for the next set of financials to see clear evidence of the same. I can assure you that the Capita ship has turned. As a result of the disposal of Capita One, Capita now has a strong balance sheet. Therefore, the pressure on Capita's cash reserves and debt fears have not only subsided, they have been repelled.

With regards to your points on Capita's revenues: Okeydokey made a key point from Tim Weller’s view on revenue i.e. “We very clearly are prioritising cost out, margin improvement, generating cash flow, and no company can be wholly indifferent to revenue, but it most certainly is the third priority.” This is exactly right.

You stated that have no 'stock or investment qualifications'. Yet you contunie to bleat on and on... about piecemeal particulars from Capita's past results. However, your 'research' and understanding of Capita's results which is in the process of a clear turnaround is very poor (bordering on incompetent). You do not understand businesses strategies and operations, or management thereof in such turnarounds. You especially do not understand the bleeding obvious; that Capita has as of now - since the completed sale of Capita One - clearly turned the corner.

Before you embarrass yourself further on this Capita discussion board, I suggest you take a break, research further into Capita and the 'here and now' (rather than focus on and repeat past results - that are no longer relevent), and speak to those in the know.

Based on your personaility traits - combined with your highly entrenched, opinionated and blinkered view on investment opportunities - that you would be short (very short) of experienced and successful investor friends. Therefore, in my opinion, you should focus on what you know i.e. ultra conservative/safe investments, and bank your meek profits there.

I do wonder if SavageKeyboard is a disgruntled former employee of Capita? Maybe he/she worked in the mail room.