Member Info for JamesOxford

@SavageGarden With your posts - sorry to say I and most everyone else here takes everything you say with a pinch of salt (to say the least, the very least).

When you talk about a possible buyout for Capita, you talk in terms of throwaway statements/comments like 'a takeover is Capita's only route out from its inevitable slide into the fires of hell'. If an interpreted Capita's financials and updates the way you interpret them, Capita would never recieve any offer of a buyout from any investment company.

For you to now 'jump on the bandwagon' now and say SavageGarden was the first to identify and suggest that Capita is a clear buyout/takeover opportunity for an investment company is beyond ridiculous.

SavageGarden you better leave this Capita discussion board now...and quick, hide your 'Play-boy' Magazine...Aimless will be back from the Dr Martens's store in a few minutes - and will need you to wax and polish her new Doc Martens!

@Trenners Not sure about AH's shares and I won't bother to look into it. IT is more likley that directors and board members would buy more shares in the new financial year i.e. when its favourable to do so in terms of tax advantages etc.

@Trisor @Trenners I have said for quite a while now that Capita is a serious potential take-over opportunity. Most likely from an investment company in the US...

Capita is cheap, the sum of its parts are worth far more than its market capital. Capita's management are experienced and first rate. Capita's turnaround is almost complete and this will be proven over the next 6-12 months with regards to financial statements. In 18 months time, sales growth will accelerate considerably (albiet from a low base) and Capita will be a 'sure thing' in terms of investment...however, of course, by then the Capita share price will already reflect that.

Lots of US investment companies are flush with cash right now, and the USD is strong vs the GBP. Capita operates in the space that US companies like i.e. services and outsourcing based on AI and technology-based solutions for private and public companies and Govts in the UK and abroad.

Once AH has completed his initial tasks in order to set the foundation (i.e. turnaround which is almost complete; and the way forward for the new Capita which he has already clearly articulated), make no mistake, Capita is clearly a potential buy-out opportunity for the right investment company...it would probably only take 2-3 rounds of negotiation.

If the above comes to pass, there will be plenty for the vast majority of Capita shareholders to cheer about - especially recent shareholders who have bought at a mere 13-14p or those LTH who have averaged down to circa 20p or less.

All IMO and DYOR

@TerryM1 SavageGarden criticised you when he said: '...nicely demonstrates you've not got a clue when it comes to political understanding, blatantly you lap up what the Daily Mail serve you for breakfast, lunch & dinner reading.'

Don't take any notice of SavageGarden TerryM1. SavageGarden only reads 'Mad Magazine' for his political and economic news...oh, and occasionally 'Play-boy Magazine' but only whenever his girlfriend Aimless goes out shopping for a new pair of black Doc Martin boots!

@johnjo1 For what it's worth...

If you try to buy £750K of JD Sports shares in one swoop you have rocks in your head. You will push the share price up, and day-traders will sell on the rise immediately based on the fact there is no news. I made this mistake in my early years, I have found it is far better to 'drip feed' and buy in smaller chunks over a few days.

You are far better to drip feed your buys at £50K-£75K per trade over a week. This has little impact on the share price and you would have 'stealthily' built your position to £750K. This is the approach I tend to use - unless the stock is so low it screams 'buy now' (EG results announced - worse than market expectations and as a result stock over-sold), and this has served me very well over the years.

That said, johnjo1 your posts don't really add up... The way you have posted about JD Sports (i.e. various degrees of hot and cold) shows very little confidence - so why bother to announce you want to invest £750K in JD Sports. Better to be quiet about it and throw £100K at a responable buy price and wait and see what happens over the next month or two. Then add or sell out. There are far too many opportunities in the LSE at the moment to be fixated with just one stock: JD Sports.

@laidback. Agreed.

I think the BoE will drop rates by .25%. A bold move would be .50% but that is probably beyond the BoE. Either way, a cut in rates would be the stimulus the UK economy badly needs right now.

@davwal Thanks for posting X updates.

Good to see progress being made, tests due soon, followed by the drill.

When the drill starts, I will build my stake further - as it will be all systems go from then on.

@Garonne 'There could be life in the old dog yet!'

I've not looked at Prudential for quite a while now. No need. As mentioned in my earlier posts, PRudential will move up mid-late February. Just need to be patient.

Trump will use the probability/possibility of US tarrifs on China in order to ensure a better deal for the US. Trump is right to do that. Trump puts US first and he is pro-growth, pro-business. The tarrifs may or may not happen.

The US is the world's largest economy and is growing at 3.1%.

China is the world's second largest economy, and it's economy is growing at 5%.

Norges has just topped up it's Prudential shareholding to now own 5% of Prudential. Coincidence? I don't think so. Prudential's share price will start a steady rise soon enough. I will continue to keep Purdential tucked away in my drawer and take another quick look in mid-late February.

GLA

@broomtree. ...And then we have 'broomtree' who sweeps in and out of the Capita chat room (with sweeping and meanlingless comments that aren't worth the paper they're not written on) like a ...well, like a broom! Lol

Say, broomtree you're not the janitor who used to work in the cafeteria at Capita are you? Oh well, never mind. Sweep on old chap.

BTW broomtree I am also here for a bit of a laugh - to break up my day and the odd night!

@LWLH 'James: The problem is the central bank! Not just them, but what about their policy actions since 2020...in fact going back to the GFC really? Where is the accountability and scrutiny? The consequences for failure?'

We are in agreement on the above.

With regards to your comment on 'cheap money'. We are broadly in agreement. I do not want to see cheap money either i.e. 1% or 1.5%.

Currently, the US interest rate is 4.5% (economic growth 3.1%) and the indications are clear that the US will cut rates probably in June-July. The EU interest rate is 3.15% (low economic growth) and the expectation is that ECB will cuts rates to circa 2.5% in summer 2025. Meanwhile the BoE interest rate is 4.75% (virtually zero economic growth). I would like to see a cut of at least .25% in February.

As a side note, if Trump can negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, then the EU and UK economic growth will move away from the current 'stagflation' and growth will pick up quickly and substantially. Until that happens (if it happens), the BoE ought to realign with the US and EU and cut rates in February.

@m007j I work in a senior role for a bank. Before you ask, I am not a branch/store manager at Natwest!

@LWHL Thanks for the 'lesson'. Clearly the BoE is independant. However, Reeves can still place 'indirect pressure' on the BoE in order to 'influence' decisions. This type of 'pressure and influence' occurs on a daily basis with senior management in institutions, companies and organisations everywhere. The BoE is no different.

The BoE will be under pressure to reduce rates to kick-start the economy. EG inflation is stable, businesses are cutting employment right now, unemployment (up 4.3% August-October 2024 vs 4% the previous quarter) and the 'economically inactive' are on the rise, and economic growth is virtually zero).

If the BoE does not cut rates in February, the UK economy will be a sick dog especially in comparison with the US and investment will continue to leave the UK in droves.

Hopefully commonsense will prevail and the BoE will cut rates in February.

@Aimless Good to see you can talk to your cats for information/advice on economics and markets. I thought you consulted with your cloudy and cracked crystal ball...now I know you actually consult with your cats! Lol

In that case next time you mutter to yourself in the kitchen: 'Has anything changed though? US inflation up. UK inflation dip by 0.1. The market jumped when infact US is worse off with inflation than it was before the announcement. I call it relief rally imho'...

You can ask your mutter the same question and statement to your cats. Your cats will hear you clearly..."Blah, blah, blah? Blah, blah..." Your cats will reply "Meow, meoowww...!!!"...and think to themselves, put a sock in it human, hurry up and fill my bowl with tuna fish from M&S...not that cheap and miserable jellymeat from Aldi you always feed us...it gives us gas!

My commentary was not that the banks will cut interest rates.

My commentary was to explain the markets have expressed increased confidence that the US Fed will cut rates earlier than expected. This is a massive shift in thinking from the markets. Personally I think (so do a few of my colleagues ) that the Fed will cut US rates in June/July. Whereas, previously the expection was that the Fed would cut rates in November/December...if at all in 2025. This is a major shift in thinking and was reflected in the markets.

The UK obviously has a serious problem with stagflation, which may become 'embedded' in the economy without action taken. It os for this reason it is possible/probable that the BoE 'may' cut rates as soon as February. Reeves needs to put serious influence and pressure on the BoE to be proactive and cut rates in February, rather than base their decision to wait on 'old data'. The fact is inflation has dropped albiet slightly. To keep UK rates on hold will ensure that the UK is left behind the US and EU in terms of the all important economic growth, and if that happens, the UK will lose further investment. Whereas, a reduction in the UK interest rate in February would act as a boost for the UK economy and investment, increase business and consumer confidence, and the benefit the UK stock market (Capita included). Importantly, a reduction in the BoE interest rate in February would help to 'off-set' the October budget, which has had a serious adverse impact on businesses especially. EG increased business NIC tax to 15% etc.

Now we have to wait until February to see if the BoE choose to act, or sit on their hands...again. I hope the BoE drops is pro-active and cuts rates in February for the reasons mentioned above.

With the JD Sports share price currently circa 5 year lows at the moment, it's no wonder Regis Schultz (CEO) purchased/added £100,000 shares. The odds of a recovery and increase from the current 5 year lows is more than likely over the next 12 months. In fact I would bet my house on it.

Growth in the US economy i.e. up 3.1% as of Q3 2024 (with consumer spend up), combined with early signs of growth in the EU economy i.e. up .4% as of Q3 2024 (with predictaions of 1.7% EU economic growth in 2025) should result in increased consumer sales over the next 12 months in the US and EU markets. JD Sports will obviously benefit from this (especially if the GBP remains weak vs the USD and EU).

Reeves desperately needs to push aside the recent stagflation in the UK, and put serious pressure on the BoE to look forward into the here and now (rather than base rate decisions on 'old out-of-date data') and reduce interest rates in February. A reduction in interest rates would act as a boost for the UK economy, business and consumer confidence, and the broader UK stock market (JD Sports included).

@AimMaster - Just re-read my post, and I realise I have provided more commentary on the US side - simply as it's a more important market than the UK. To re-balance to a degree, on the UK side, the UK inflation rate was down slightly today, and as a direct result the UK 2, 5, 10 and 30 Year Gilt Yields rates dropped today. In follows on from what I mentioned in US terms, in that as the UK has had a slight decrease in inflation, it is possible that the UK inflation may hit the BoE target earlier than expected and therefore the BoE may reduce interest rates earlier than expected (possibly/probably as early as February). Obviously, this was an important factor for the rise in the UK stock market today also. These inflation and yield reductions takes some of the heat off Reeves...for now at least. Lol

@AimMaster 'Has anything changed though? US inflation up. UK inflation dip by 0.1. The market jumped when infact US is worse off with inflation than it was before the announcement. I call it relief rally imho'

Well - much has in fact changed...

I normally keep my research and analysis to myself, but I will share my thoughts on this one (and probably only) occasion, which is what a few of us think (includes a couple of my economist friends) at the bank based on today's announcements...

I'll try to keep this brief:

In Q3 2024, the US economy's growth increased further to 3.1% on an annualised basis. Last week the US jobs data showed the economy had added 256,000 jobs in December. This week the US inflation data shows that inflation was 2.9% (vs 2.7%), however, this slight rise was still less than expectations. Upon release of the US inflation data earlier today, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 13 basis points to 4.653% and the US 2-year Treasury yield fell by 10 basis points to 4.27%. This is all very positive for the US economy.

So what does this mean in terms of markets?

To read the data is always one thing and anyone can do this. However, to interpret the data is another skill altogether. In summary, the markets see that the US economy has experienced strong growth, with employment up with coresponding greater productivity in terms of goods and services. Further, the US economy has been able to expand at a faster pace (faster than pre-Covid) without creating undue inflationary pressures. This means the US Fed will be confident it can reduce inflation over time to it's target of 2% and therefore start to reduce interest rates further. The reality is that anyinterest rate reductions will probably occur later in 2025 (I predict June-July but don't hold me to it), but all the early signs are there already i.e. ahead of market expectations. They say 'When the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold'. The opposite is also true. Today, the US market enjoyed some good news, and with the UK inflation rate slightly down also, most of the UK stock market enjoyed a rise too.

I have shared some insights with Aimless as she appears to have genuinely asked 'what has changed'? I do not invite any response or comment from anyone. All IMO and DYOR

@Taverham. Not sure what you are on about. I was replying to FF under the Subect 'Ceo buys'...not under this subject 'Off Topic'.

@NoFear. The rise in the broad market today was 'spark' needed for many experienced investors to move from the sidelines and catch the early rise in many stocks. Capita was a clear benefiicary of this 'spark' and immediate rise as the Capita share price had flat-lined at a lowly .132p over the last week. In other words, the Capita bottom had clearly been reached as support was at .132p, so the rise was inevitable - all it needed was that initial 'spark'.

Further, Israel and Hamas appear to have finally sealed a 'ceasefire and release hostages' deal to stop the war. This should provide a boost to the stock market tomorrow and possibly/probably over the next few days. Wins like this (i.e. peace deals) almost always provide a boost to the stock market in the US and UK. This deal had to be made before Trump entered office. Trump made this clear when he said earlier this week that a deal had to be made before he entered office...or there will be 'he-l-l to pay' (Trump's words, not mine).

When Trump (pro-America, pro-growth, pro-business) enters office shortly, I expect the US stock market to spike upwards again, no doubt the UK stockmarket and Capita will benefit also.

All IMO

@Falcon-Flyer-03 I wouldn't be concerned about the UT it could be sells it could be buys. The UT sell/buy shown is not always correct. All we know for sure is that JD Sports closed at .9288p up 2.99% today as per the official London Stock Exchange website.