Member Info for JamesOxford

Despite Labour's pre-election promises of pro-growth, pro-business and other such rhetoric, the Labour Govt has - within 6 months - destroyed the 'green shoots' which promised so much for the UK economy in 2025. The latest update on consumer confidence is as expected: consumer confidence down.

With virtually zero growth, taxes on business, unemployment up, weak GBP, business and consumer confidence down (and many other such economic indicators) - the fact is that the UK is sleepwalking into a recession and all the economisits know it. The BoE needs to take decisive action on 6 February, or the UK economy will fall into recession without a shadow of a doubt. As for Starmer and Reeves: what a pair of absolute political and economic muppets.

23 January 2025:

'Consumer confidence in the British economy has tumbled to a new low amid recession fears.

According to the British Retail Consortium's (BRC) consumer sentiment monitor, expectations for the state of the economy over the next three months have worsened, delivering a reading of minus 34, down from minus 27 in December.

Helen Dickinson, the industry group’s chief executive, said ministers’ pessimism has spread to households.

“On top of this challenging market backdrop, retailers are facing £7bn in additional costs from the Budget and new packaging levy. With retailers’ tight margins leaving little scope to absorb more costs, many are warning of price rises and job cuts in the coming months.” '

Solid set of numbers from Adidas today (click on link below) for Q4 results.

Adidas CEO Bjorn Gulden said 'We clearly see that consumers’ and retailers’ interest in our products is growing across both Lifestyle and Performance. Strong growth across all regions and divisions proves the good job our teams are doing across regions and functions. We grew double-digit in 2024 (+12% currency-neutral) and improved our operating profit for the year by more than € 1 billion to € 1.337 billion. So although we are not yet where we want to be long term, I am very happy with this development which was much better than we had expected. We still have a lot to improve but I am very proud of what our teams and people have achieved in 2024.We also feel good about the future, and we see potential to increase our market share in all markets.'

The above has prompted me to add to my JD Sports shareholding at circa .835p earlier AM today. Further, the central banks look set to reduce interest rates this year, which will act as a boost for business and consumer spend. When that happens, I expect to see JD Sports climb quite quickly to circa £1.25 at a minimum. IMO

https://www.adidas-group.com/en/media/press-releases/adidas-finishes-successful-year-with-better-than-expected-fourth-quarter-results

GLA

@Bigmac69 'Could easily be the largest FTSE rise of 2025'. Agreed. I plan to add more JD Sports this week.

With Labour Govt taxhikes, UK economic growth at virtually zero, and now it has been confirmed that unemployment is up...my bet is that the BOE will cut the interest rate on 6 February from 4.75% to 4.50%. This will act as a small boost for the UK stock market (JD Sports included) and for business and consumer confidence.

Most importantly, it will also help struggling businesses and consumer households to 'balance the books'.

In terms of JD Sports' target market, at the moment there will be plenty of young aspirational consumers who have to pay off/down their credit cards after the usual Christmas spend. So any interest rate cut would be as welcomed as a pay rise. For many such consumers, once the credit card is paid down/off and the spring-summer season arrives, it will be time to visit JD Sports stores once more. Spend, rinse, repeat...human nature at its finest!

Hence, when the BoE cuts interest rates, retail stocks tend to rise.

With the Labour Govt tax rises, UK economic growth at virtually zero, investment outflows, and now it has been confirmed that unemployment is up...my bet is that the BOE will cut the interest rate on 6 February from 4.75% to 4.50%. This will act as a small boost for the UK stock market (Capita included) and for business and consumer confidence. IMO

I doubt a BoE interest rate cut by a mere .25% will 'boost' the economy, but at least it will help struggling businesses and consumer households to a small degree.

Maybe the BoE will take a look over the horizon and see what the road ahead looks like without decisive action...and cut by a more meaningful .50%. But then, pigs might fly...

@Trenners I agree to sell at 18p would be a mistake. The fact is when Capita climbs to 18p that will signal to the market that Capita is on its way and this will be backed by finincial results, RNS updates, contract wins etc. To sell at 18p will mean selling at the start of the upward curb. Anyone invested in BAE, M&S, RollsRoyce, CMC, etc who sold too early will know that feeling of 'Oh no, damn...I sold too early. If only I waited!'

@Ekimp. If your post is directed at me. Then read below, if not then move on.

I responded to m007j who posted about me possibly buying at .134p to .135p. FYI. I already have £300K invested in Capita at mid .13p. It makes no sense to add when the share price is mid .13p as I am already at that price. I am in no hurry to add, but when/if I do add, it will be at .132p or lower.

The Capita share price will rise and fall in the short term, but I am only interested in 12-18 months from now at a minimum. In 2-3 years, the Capita ship will be full steam ahead, and the current share price of circa 14p will seem like a dream and potential Capita investors who are currently sitting on the sidelines with their hands in their pockets slinking their coins from side to side will think 'Damn...why oh why didn't I buy at 14-20p...stupid!' Lol

"D'oh! Why you little...."

Homer Simpson

@M007j I didn't add today. I'll only add at .1320p as I believe that is the bottom for Capita. FYI I don't work for a retail bank! You need not be worried about the current Capita price - it's short term. I am only interested in where Capita will be in 12-18 months. Look what AH has already acheived in 12 months...what will AH achieve in the next 12 months? Capita is a no brainer at these levels. Check the Capita share price in 12-18 months - the proof will be in the pudding.

I do wonder if as it becomes evident that Capita's fortunes have turned around, whether or not LTH sell out at the first sign of a profit. Or will they hold and wait for the real returns in 12-18 months? Tiume will tell.

Johnjo is not and will never be a buyer of JD Sports. With him it's all smoke and mirrors.

Johnjo is the village idiot. End of.

Trump's first speech:

"Drill baby drill!"..."Liqud Gold!"..."We will export US oil around the world!".

Glad I'm invested in Zephyr!

It looks like AimMaster is invested in Capita once again...maybe for more than a few hours this time...?! Lol

Aimless has turned her back on SavageGarden once more. What's the bet this time SavageGarden keeps his distance from Aimless' Doc Martens, in order not to be kicked in the face again. Once bitten, twice shy!

@AdamWoodman - Thanks for the information. Good to see that stuff like staff vouchers have been stopped (it's not a decent enough reward anyway), and that mid-level management has been cut. Feel free to post any other non-confidential information as and when - as it makes for an interesting read for us Capita investors.

On behalf of all Capita investors - we greatly appreciate your work especially during the turnaround and transformation. Keep up the good work at Capita...there will be light at the end of the tunnel!

Back to the topic at hand. '125p within 3 months'. JD Sports is currently at a 5 year low. There is only one short shown, so the shorts are not exactly flocking to JD Sports, which indicates the shorts are not convinced the share price can drop much further. All that is needed really is for the BoE to cut rates.

This will provide more cash in consumers' pockets - and when that happens in the UK (and in the US and EU) - JD Sports will be a clear beneficiary of such a cut in rates. Therefore, in theroy, it would not be out of the question for JD Sports's hare price to hit £1.25 by mid April 2025.

GLA

@johnjo1 you posted: 'I dont since I couldn’t get it filled. I dont sI also don’t have the time to drip feed 10,000 shares every day for 4 months'.

Why would you drip feed a mere £10K per day in JD Sports over four months?! Over the last 12 montrhs, I used to 'trade' JD Sports, and I regularly bought and sold shares in lumps of £100K (occasionaly twice in one day) with no trouble at all.

Clearly you are not authentic. Clearly you are a wind-up...and the village idiot. I think it's time you take your bat and ball, walk off this field, and go play your silly little games on another discussion board.

@AdamWoodman I doubt the Capita board of directors could consider let alone accept a low-ball offer. It would be different once Capita's financials improve and the share price reflects the same.

On a different note, I seem to recall when you first posted on this Capita discussion board you mentioned you were a Capita employee. Not sure if that was a wind-up. If you are an employy of Capita, do you have any information, news or updates as to how management changes are affecting Capita internally? I am not asking for any 'inside infomation', only a general overview/update. If not, that's fine - just thought I'd ask.

@Trenners Just to add to my earlier post that AH was appointed to SDL Plc to turn its fortunes around (sounds familiar!). AH was at the helm of SDL Plc from April 2016 to November 2020 (when SDL was merged witrh RWS)...in other words 3 years and 3 months until RWS made their all-share merger offer with SDL. AH has been at the helm of Capita for 1 year and 1 month to date, with luck, AH will remain with Capita for a further 2 years (similar to my estimated time-frame of 18-24 months for AH to ensure Capita is in a strong financial position) i.e. before an investment company or competitor swoops in to pick up Capita for a steal!

@johnjo1 in your reply to me you commented: 'So yes I have very little confidence in JD short term, but that confidence grows over time when short term uncertainty clears.'

Why would you say you want to invest £750,000 in one single purchase now, when you have (quote) 'very little confidence in JD short term'...?! That makes no sense whatsoever.

johnjo1 - I doubt you are authentic...more like a dreamer, or a wind-up merchant.

@Trenners. Agreed. I am confident the Capita share price will move upwards, probably around start-mid February onwards. A couple of RNS' ought to be due in February-March also.

@Trenners @Trisor. @Trenners You asked what JO would think about a fair buyout share price for Capita, as you were conncerned it could be 'quite low'...

Well, besides a Capita buyout from a US investment company, I wouldn't rule out a buyout or merger of Capita by one of Capita's competitors in the UK or abroad. For example, under a merger, the synergies and cost savings would be excellent; the combined group would increase its footprint, market reach and range of services/solutions; and the employees and stakeholders would benefit.

But would Capita shareholders benefit...? Well, let's take a look...

Think for a minute what happened at AH's previous company SDL Plc, which provided specialised in language translation software and services, was based in the UK, and was listed on the LSE until it was acquired by RWS Group in November 2020. In 2019, SDL Plc had: revenue of £376 million, operating income of £30 million, net income of £20 million; and employees 4,250.

AH's SDL Plc announced a 'Recommended All-share Combination' by RWS on 26 August 2020, and the merger was completed on 4 November 2020. SDL's share price on 26 August 2020 was £5.98p and this offer effectively equated to a 'new' SDL share price of £9.07p (i.e. at the time of the RWS offer on 26 August 2020) i.e. a premium of circa 52% to SDL’s closing share price of £5.98 pence on 26 August 2020. This seemed to be a 'good' offer at the time. See link below for details of the RWS offer recommended by SDL's board of directors to SDL's shareholders.

A similar 'good' merger with one of Capita's competitors today, would mean that based on Capita's closing share price of .1412p as at 17 January 2025 (LSE), Capita shareholders would recieve circa 21.5p per share i.e. a premium of circa 52% based on Capita closing share price of .1412p on the London Stock Exchange today.

Now the question would be does an offer of .215p represent a 'good' offer for Capita shareholders today?

For any Capita long-term shareholders at over 21p, I would say definately not. Unless those LTH wanted to be shareholders in the new larger combined company.

For me (as a Capita investor who has an average share price of mid .13p), I would say 'probably' not. I would prefer to keep my Capita stake and enjoy the turnaround journey, as I am sure Capita will be a growth-stock under the current AI and technology revolution currently starting. I am 100% sure the Capita share price can rise to circa .215p entirely on it's own steam within the next 6 months. And of course, much higher in 12-18 months.

@Trenners @Trisor - thoughts? Please no feedback from SavageGarden or Aimless - not wanted.

https://wp-rws-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/08/27065809/20.08.27-Rule-2.7-Announcement-Final-Version.pdf