Member Info for JamesLast

300 mln equity value on balance sheet end 2024 is fine, book value of ingenuity of 500mln taken off now. The potential is OFCF starting to fire from 2026 as it did during the past years, now without Ingenuity. With all past investments paid by earlier (diluted) shareholders to come to the current revenue stream. Net debt/net cash could be reached by 2028. Make this a share buyback or dividend machine in a growing market. Current SP is a joke then. Hopefully THG management sees this.

It's mind blowing, since IPO almost 2bln in new shares have been placed in the market. Around 1.7bln just after IPO in 2020 and 2021 to finance takeovers. Most of them account for the current revenue stream. At this current market cap valuation you get them almost all for free. It's hilarious.

At least the company's web page looks fantastic since today :)

Okay, interesting pearls. I've never heard a PI on such calls before while I can imagine there would be some with questions looking at the massive flow of messages every now and then on this share chat.

There is not much use in doing that in my opinion. I don't think you're allowed as well. Mostly 3 or 4 brokerage firm analysts only allowed in there.

Somebody bought a million shares which caused the pop up. Don't make it a big deal with some BS manipulation story. Here are markets for.

They should prefer buybacks. More tax efficient.

Maybe. Sentiment looks to change in favor of the company with lower whey prices, strategic tailwinds, currency relief, debt restructuring done, MA buying and MM insider buying aggressive here. This could become an important turning point for the SP coming months.

They don't need to pick up the stock since it hardly has any weight in the current index. So that 100mln shares have not been bought at all.

Probably opens flat or slightly up so you should be fine to buy some on the open.

They did their refinancing right on time. Spreads exploding currently. Originally aimed to place the loan at 98% but it settled at 96%. But definitely better than no extension at all. MM adding equity into this also very nice for stability coming years.

Yes and still it's not a cheap stock. Just a cash burner for debtors.

I think your ebitda margin is far too optimistic. Management expects this much lower themselves. Most tax losses have gone to ingenuity as well, still there is a good chunk left indeed. Lease costs of 20mln+ and interest rate costs still eat away profits for the most part. FCF of 50mln at best probably and a lot of uncertainties still there.

Not that strong but now used party to reduce leverage and lengthen debt structure which is a good thing with minimal higher interest rate.

It was indeed mentioned earlier, also by analysts. Convenants on the loan and seasonality probably part of the reasons.

But no 100mln is missing in that regard. The financing structure is placed with added equity at ATL which is questionable indeed. Since they recently got approved to the FTSE250 numbers should be fine. A little extra equity in here is not that bad for new shareholders.

The RNS states 92mln EBITDA x 2.6 leverage = 240mln, debt is 475mln. Excess cash in company is 235mln then. An undrawn RCF is not part of this calculation.

The convertible loan is indeed dubious. But probably needed from the lenders to rollover the outstanding loans for liquidity reasons or seasonal effects regarding working capital needs. Impairment does not hurt cash position so don't see that angle. Better margins and higher free cashflow will be key coming year. Company aims to achieve net debt positive so that's a good thing but still quite some time away from now.

It's not even clear what the conditions are for the convertible. Non interest bearing so conversion rights will probably be very unfavorable for current shareholders.

Let's hope it moves below 30 so we can buy more into it. Pretty likely though.