Member Info for JamesLast

THG reported a +50% increase in subscription base in H2 vs H1 2025 — the strongest half-year acceleration in its history. Historically, subscription growth was 10–20% per half year (peaking at ~40% during Covid).

With average annual revenue per subscriber around £120 and retention at ~75%, this subscription surge could generate £230–250m in high-margin, recurring revenue by 2026, equating to ~£50m EBITDA on its own.

Subscriptions increase pricing power, predictability, and marketing efficiency, exactly the kind of structural improvements that warrant multiple expansion.

The market has been fixated on whey prices and beauty volatility — but the subscription engine is quietly transforming Nutrition into a stickier, higher-quality business.

If this trajectory continues, it could be a decisive factor in THG’s rerating over the next 12 months.

More disposals coming if not hurting core business

Great numbers. Back into growth, exceeding expectations and repeating guidance. Beauty recovering as well.

Margin improvement together with accelerating revenues would skyrocket the SP

Because the legislation hasn't been amended, all indications are that Sunwarrior's interpretation is now leading.

For THG/Myprotein, this means in concrete terms:

Their £45 million VAT claim has likely become legally stronger;

The likelihood that HMRC will actually have to repay this has increased significantly;

There is also a strong basis for structurally zero-rating future sales for certain product lines.

It is imminent. Expect next week.

Major rise imminent indeed. 50+ before year end very likely imo. Let's see what company update brings us.

Moody's is not convinced they will execute well in second half of the year. Margins worsened H1 and debt profile too high. For now it's not an issue since they rolled over their debt but let's see if margin improvements and positive free cash flow can turn this boat around. A lot has to happen for Moody's change their mind and upgrade.

RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects the uncertainty about the ability of the company

to improve its operating performance, reduce leverage further and generate

meaningfully positive free cash flows.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Positive rating pressure is unlikely to develop at this stage unless i) the

companyʼs Moodyʼs-adjusted EBITDA margin recovers to above 7% with meaningful

positive organic revenue growth, ii) Moodyʼs-adjusted gross leverage is

maintained well below 5x, (EBITDA-Capex)/Interest expense is above 2x and iii)

the company generates positive free cash flows at least in mid-single digits

in percentage of gross Moodyʼs-adjusted debt.

Conversely, negative rating pressure could develop if i) the company fails to

grow organically or to improve its operating margin, ii) its Moodyʼs-adjusted

gross leverage fails to reduce below 6x, (EBITDA-Capex)/Interest expense is

below 1.25x or if iii) it fails to generate meaningful positive free cash

flows on a Moodyʼs adjusted basis. Negative rating pressure could develop also

if the companyʼs liquidity were to deteriorate.

There is a clear reason for the lower SP today:

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/thg-rating-downgraded-to-b3-by-moodys-as-outlook-stays-negative-93CH-4255958

Interesting indeed. Thx. Looks like not added to the index today. Should create a high volume day. Didn't see that, maybe tomorrow.

Ah yes sorry for that. Small chance this will not follow through though eventually. The investment flows are with us coming months.

THG entry into FTSE 250 has been delayed till at least end of October after court hearing on Ocean Wilson appeal. Patience all.

(Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan analyst Lara Simpson raised the recommendation on THG Plc to neutral from underweight.

PT set to 43 pence, implies a 17% increase from last price.

This will easily hit 40+ pence coming week. Previous addition to the FTSE250 was well anticipated. This time around it's unexpected and taking place coming week. Short notice period. Also the balance sheet is much improved since last time with the asset disposal.

Funds need to buy more than 40mln shares in the market coming week. Could bring interesting move up.

Buy flow explained now as well. Great news indeed.

Probably out there already hence the rerate of the SP

Https://www.thglabs.com/resources/press-releases/thg-labs-supports-clean-oil-25s-journey

Nice milestone for THG Beauty with approval of clean oil 25. Great news.

Okay all good rectifications with more value there. The list was generated by an Ai request but much value there. Great.

Hidden value on bought assets? 🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿

2016

Skinstore.com – £27.9m

2017

Glossybox – £9.1m

ESP – £7.0m

Hangar Seven – £5.3m

2018

Language Connect – £6.4m

Acheson & Acheson – £20.0m

2019

Omega – £3.5m

2020

Claremont – £52.0m - sold £104m

2021

Chantecaille – £51.0m

Bentley Laboratories LLC – £56.0m

Dermstore.com – £259.8m

Cult Beauty – £275.0m

2022

Biossance (Intellectual Property) – £20.0m

2023

City AM – price not disclosed

Serge Lutens (distribution rights) – £7.5m