Member Info for JamesLast

Don't think so. Probably delayed with a few months. Maybe some update on this at the AGM wednesday.

These resolutions open the door wide open for share buybacks in the near future. Very clear request from this document. Technically, Resolution 20 is the key enabler here. Great news.

Importantly, they are simultaneously renewing:

the 10% buyback authority;

broad issuance flexibility;

and explicitly reference “future shareholder returns.”

That combination is unlikely to be accidental.

I think you’re missing the key point here.

Yes, they don’t give P&L detail in a trading update — that’s standard. But they explicitly reiterate £25–50m free cash flow guidance, which is actual cash generation, not accounting profit.

Given they’re facing record whey input costs, maintaining both growth (+7%) and FCF guidance is actually a strong signal.

PAT is distorted by non-cash amortisation — what matters for equity value here is whether the business starts generating cash consistently.

That’s exactly what they’re guiding to.

OSG, the stronger version of your argument is simply this: Myprotein alone at a comparable multiple to Applied Nutrition is worth more than the current enterprise value of the whole group, implying you get Beauty, the VAT claim, and £183m of cash for nothing. That's cleaner and harder to argue with than the separate businesses MM bought within THG. SP could easily double in the next few months. VAT claim isn't even priced in with houses like JP Morgan. They will rerate their price targets massively. Just be patient here now.

More buyers then sellers active. Moves price upwards. Still pretty cheap and VAT news not widely dispersed. Will give it another boost imo.

50+ easy considering lower net debt, lower interest costs yearly and 20mln higher yearly margins. Discount that and you get easy 20p+ in valuation metrics on current SP.

HMRC can still appeal but pretty unlikely. Great day for the company.

JP Morgan materially upgraded EPS expectations for the coming 3 years in their latest analyst note. Mostly driven by lower net finance costs. THG will be joining their European Technology Conference this May as well with a select group of other companies. The year of the horse has started it seems. Let's galop ahead from here.

This ai driven analysis sums most of it up in a nice way on THG:

https://flash.stocksentinel.ai/watch/7649?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=explainer_video&utm_campaign=freja_and_friends

With Moulding and Ashley buying their balls off at these levels we don’t need the other muppets for more confirmation to know this stock is very cheap at the moment I guess.

The clothing line of MP will start a collaboration with Champion next week. Interesting initiative with a premium clothing brand. Great strategy to do brand partnerships this way. Soon the MP logo will be seen everywhere in the UK and beyond.

THG will win either way. Either they receive a 78mln inflow + 15mln a year cashflow or it's main competitors have to repay 7 years of VAT on their protein drinks sales which they haven't charged their customers. Probably putting some of them out of business.

FT is not even able to state the true market cap of THG in the article. They mention 700mln while we're at 490mln currently. That error actually makes the claim relatively more significant, not less.

The claim (£60m protein powders + £18m supplements = £78m) now sits on considerably stronger legal footing than the market has priced in — and is still excluded from both Peel Hunt's and JPMorgan's forecasts. Pure optionality at ~30p.

I understand your skepticism but cashflow and profit will come next few years. Probably a lot of i, certainly when MM has learned to manage his capital structure a bit better. Since he has an accounting background I am convinced he will do better onwards. I don’t see ingenuity as a big threat in this case.

It does not hurt much if the company goes back into growth mode with faster growth in revenues and profits. Let’s see about that

Thg is also making money as there currently is a positive growing free cashflow to the firm. Debt cost is falling and prices are more competitive than other sellers of protein already. So prices can stay sticky for a while here imo. There is huge oversupply in milk which will stay during ‘26 according to several reports. This could set us up for a nice tailwind. Again, MM keeps on mentioning this in his updates for good reasons I guess. Let’s see in the near future.

Moulding reiterated a few times now that falling whey prices will impact the firms EBITDA dramatically in the sense of tens of millions pounds each year. Instead of focussing on this ingenuity contract better focus on price development around milk. Milk is the essential ingredient to create whey isolate. Price of milk and a by product cheese is falling dramatically in recent months. This will definitely impact input prices for whey production and is a huge tailwind for Myprotein. I think MM has mentioned this now a few times on his LinkedIn and during company updates for good reasons. If milk keeps on falling then whey will start falling soon as well.

Most interesting part still to come about deleveraging and returning capital to shareholders in the future. At least MM is willing to talk about this prospect.

A lot of positives in today’s update, in my view.

Two quarters ago THG was still reporting numbers materially below average analyst consensus. Today, they’re slightly above consensus again. That’s an important inflection point.

The confirmation of ~£100m EBITDA and ~£25m free cash flow for FY26 now feels like a base case, not a stretch target. On top of that, the potential VAT refund (~£55m) remains an upside option rather than something already priced in.

Whey pricing is still elevated, but even a modest easing would have a disproportionate impact on EBITDA. Management was clear this remains a temporary headwind, not a structural issue. If and when that normalises, earnings leverage looks significant.

Revenue growth is another key takeaway. Momentum is clearly accelerating across both Beauty and Nutrition, which matters because it increases customer touch points, strengthens brand relevance, and improves operating leverage over time.

Cash position also looks solid after the most cash-generative quarter of the year, reducing balance sheet risk and giving flexibility going forward.

Overall, execution is improving, downside risks are reducing, and optionality (VAT, margins, strategic value) is increasing.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see more long-term investors start paying attention to this story again over the coming months.

My Protein with Iceland food warehouse in pretty much every big newspaper in the UK today with half a page of advertising. This is what MM was aiming for I guess. Huge exposure today.