Member Info for JamesLast

Some Matt quotes from the interview:

we've come through back to double digit top line growth um i guess we just come through cyber weekend we can't really talk about numbers but you know clearly there's been you know volume flying everywhere the business is in great shape coming into next year we've got new licensing deals more licensing deals coming

it's just why would you now and there's other things you can do instead like we did with the claremont deal so just to prove a point as much as anything um where something people didn't even know we owned is worth in dollars, what was it, $140 million or whatever. And we've got plenty of those in the group to keep us entertained for now, as opposed to going to people and saying, ignore our share price, let's have a conversation with you about, because we just think we might as well go and do a process or something. Why bother? Let's just keep doing the smaller stuff.

So you've got a 12, 13% EBITDA margin business, highly cash generative. What would it be worth? you're not going to sell an asset like that for less than two times sales realistically are you i don't think you know you mentioned hotel exactly all the rest of it and and that's why you're seeing private equity coming along and paying triple digit premiums

Onwards!

If you strip away the noise and look at the underlying data, THG has quietly entered its first real period of operational momentum since 2020. The latest Nutrition chart from Müller – where Myprotein goes from zero to the UK’s number one protein dessert brand in twelve months – is not just a nice marketing slide. It is evidence of a repeatable playbook: category entry, rapid distribution scaling, and brand-led share capture against Nestlé and Danone.

Combine that with Q3 delivering double-digit growth in Nutrition, continued offline expansion, and the new Mars licensing programme (Snickers first, Bounty/Mars/Twix next), and the medium-term margin story becomes more credible. Nutrition is now positioned to return to 11–12 percent EBITDA margins as whey normalises and licensing scales.

On the numbers: THG trades around 45p with an enterprise value of roughly £0.8bn. Consensus EBITDA for 2025 sits near £75m, but the real focus should be 2026, where a base case of £100–110m EBITDA looks reasonable if Nutrition continues to grow 10–12 percent and Beauty stabilises. With net debt falling towards £120–150m by end-2026 and free cash flow finally improving, an 11–12x EV/EBITDA multiple is not a stretch for a consumer brand with accelerating offline distribution and licensing.

That implies an equity value in the region of 85–110p per share by the end of 2026, with a fair end-2025 range closer to 55–70p as the market starts to price 2026 earnings and FCF.

There are still clear risks: real FCF delivery has lagged adjusted metrics, Beauty remains more volatile, and the governance discount is unlikely to disappear entirely. But the asymmetry is better than it has been in years: Nutrition alone is arguably worth close to today’s entire enterprise value, and that is before any optionality from licensing, retail expansion, or a full margin recovery.

In short: execution still matters, but the ingredients for a proper re-rating are now in place. The market is paying you to take the execution risk, and for the first time in a long time, the upside scenario is starting to look structurally justified.

Mars shut down its German D2C sports-nutrition brand Foodspring earlier this year, which to me signals a consolidation of their protein strategy away from owning a niche brand and toward large-scale partnerships.

Now we’re seeing the Myprotein × Mars tie-in go live across multiple formats and geos, right into peak season:

• Foodspring closure (Mars majority-owned): https://www.just-food.com/news/mars-backed-sports-nutrition-business-foodspring-to-cease-trading/

• Myprotein × Mars/Snickers collab surfacing: https://www.stack3d.com/2025/11/myprotein-x-mars-collaborations.html

Why this matters for THG:

• Scope: not a one-off SKU; looks like a program across powders, bars, snacks.

• Distribution: Myprotein’s D2C plus the growing offline footprint can scale this far beyond prior, regional Mars licenses.

• Economics: Myprotein drives its own volume; this isn’t just a tiny royalty line.

• Timing: launching into Black Friday/Cyber + holiday demand.

Execution risk is real (supply, pricing, promo), but if velocity lands, this can be a 2026 earnings driver rather than a short-term PR pop.

Wayne Brown (Panmure Liberum), previously one of the more doubtful voices on THG, just posted the following in response to Moulding’s LinkedIn update:

“Very glad to see things coming through and the positive progress… always love being proved wrong (in time) when things turn out well! Well done Matthew Moulding and team :-)”

Encouraging to see a public shift in tone — especially from someone who’s been vocal in the past. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a formal SP upgrade from Panmure in the near future.

Patience. Most likely will be announced somewhere coming 2/3 weeks. RNS's will come, but closer to Black Friday to profit from momentum of announcement in the media. Currently too soon to announce in my opinion.

Historically not many cases ruled in favor of HMRC at this stage. They can only get permission from UT when HMRC shows a clear error in law, not just disagreement with the outcome. Probably denied somewhere Q4 25/Q1 26, would be nice cashflow for THG. If not denied, it'll take another 12 months for final verdict.

1️⃣ Confirmed & Seasonal Drivers

Peak Q4 trading: Black Friday → Christmas drives highest cash generation.

H2 guidance beat potential after +6.3 % Q3 growth.

FTSE 250 tracker inflows continue into year-end.

2️⃣ Announced / High-Probability Catalysts

Global confectionery licensing deal for Myprotein launch before Black Friday.

European food-to-go FMCG partnership expands retail distribution.

Formal approaches for non-core assets post-Claremont sale.

3️⃣ Distribution & Brand Momentum

50 + Myprotein Kitchens inside Everlast Gyms (Frasers Group).

Sports Direct & Flannels expand Myprotein and Beauty ranges.

Retail doors target raised from 40k to 100k globally.

CVS (2,500 stores) + Korea licensing accelerate offline reach.

Müller 2 m units monthly + Iceland £70 m run-rate validate licensing engine.

Subscriptions up +50 % vs H1 → recurring revenue growth.

Lookfantastic back to double-digit UK growth; own brands stabilizing.

4️⃣ Financial & Structural Upside

Refinancing complete to 2029; deleveraging accelerates.

VAT refund (~£45 m) possible pending HMRC final decision.

Potential manufacturing asset sale adds cash and reduces debt.

Ingenuity now externally funded → no cash drain on THG PLC.

5️⃣ Market & Technical Tailwinds

Whey below €900 / t → margin relief for Nutrition.

Borrow tightness (IG & CMC) → limited shorting capacity.

Possible insider buying and new broker targets post-Q4.

🔺 Three Re-Rating Pathways

1. Multiple Pathway – Licensing deals + offline expansion position THG as branded CPG, not low-multiple e-commerce.

2. Cash Pathway – VAT refund + asset sales + Q4 cash flow reduce net debt → higher equity share of EV.

3. Proof Pathway – Subscriptions, unit sell-through and door growth compress execution discount and validate scalability.

Google’s investment in Ingenuity improves group confidence & reduces perceived cross-subsidisation risk.

🕒 Summary Outlook (4–6 Week Window)

THG enters a rare cluster of catalysts: two new FMCG partnerships, potential VAT windfall, possible asset disposal, and record seasonal trading.

Each of these could materially lift sentiment and re-rate valuation from ~48p today toward 70–80p before year-end — with upside beyond 90p if any disposal or VAT resolution lands.

Somehow it cuts of the message but high odds on re-rate into seventies would be my guess.

Whey price softening (

🌎 Sentiment & Technical Drivers

FTSE 250 re-entry inflows still underway (~70m tracker shares to buy).

Whey price softening (

Okay to summarize our discussion then:

🍫 Global Confectionery Leader Partnership (Licensing RNS)

Expected before Black Friday (28 Nov) — timing repeatedly confirmed by management.

Products to feature iconic confectionery flavours within MyProtein’s portfolio.

Potential partners speculated: Mars, Nestlé, Mondelez, Ferrero, Hershey.

Impact: Validates THG’s licensing model; incremental revenue in Q4 and 2026, strong brand halo for Nutrition.

Probability: High 🔥 | Timing: Mid-November.

🥪 Major European “Food-to-Go” Partnership

Mentioned in the Q3 call as a two-way product collaboration with a leading chilled & ambient FMCG player.

Expected to launch in Q4 2025, expanding THG Nutrition into the high-protein lunch/snack segment.

Impact: Diversifies Nutrition revenues, enhances offline retail exposure.

Probability: Medium–High | Timing: Within 4–6 weeks.

🏭 Potential Manufacturing Asset Sale (e.g., Bentley Labs US)

CEO confirmed receiving formal approaches for several non-core assets.

Bentley Labs (US cosmetics manufacturing, acquired for £180m) is a likely candidate; attractive under new US import tariff regime.

Impact: Could yield >£100m, further reduce leverage, and re-rate valuation sharply.

Probability: Medium ⚙️ | Timing: Possible at any time.

💰 VAT Refund / HMRC Case Resolution (~£45m)

THG confirmed HMRC’s right of appeal has expired on the sports powder VAT case.

Based on precedent (Sunwarrior case), THG likely to recover £40–45m.

Impact: One-off cash inflow + structural margin improvement (no longer charging/remitting VAT).

Probability: Medium 💸 | Timing: Q4 announcement possible.

🛍️ Black Friday & Cyber Week Performance

THG’s strongest trading period; Advent calendar sales in Beauty already tracking record levels.

New licensed products (Müller, Iceland, Jimmy’s Iced Coffee, HYROX) expected to support high sell-through.

Impact: Confirms turnaround momentum in both Beauty & Nutrition, key for FY guidance validation.

Probability: High | Timing: Late Nov–Early Dec.

🏋️ Frasers Group / Sports Direct Expansion

Over 50 MyProtein Kitchens live in Everlast Gyms (vs. just one earlier this year).

MyProtein apparel and supplements now featured in Sports Direct, with Beauty concessions possible in Flannels.

Frasers holds 12.6% stake in THG.

Impact: Expands retail footprint from 40k → 100k stores globally; recurring offline revenue growth.

Probability: High | Timing: Rolling updates through Q4.

🌎 Sentiment & Technical Drivers

FTSE 250 re-entry inflows still underway (~70m tracker shares to buy).

Whey price softening (

I think MM was more hypothetical on this topic. See his words below. Nothing concrete there yet. But there are many catalysts coming weeks for the company to re-rate.

I think we've been pretty frank and open to say, look, we could quite readily put an RNS[ph] out at

any point to say we've done a transaction. It would be something that's relatively non-core at a

fair market value that delivers something that we're pretty pleased with -- but look how long will

that be before we do that? Who knows? It will depend on achieving the right price points if those

prices arrive. But that's probably as much as that can say right now

Thank you OSG. Indeed your points are valid as well and support a re-rate. Also the valuation on ebitda/revenue mentions here today support the extreme cheapness of this company. Coming weeks will bring some RNS to us that will provide clarity about future the strength of revenue/ebitda growth. Ingenuity deal and Claremont is an important mark for me a lot is possible for this company. With a 650mln market cap currently not much good needs to happen to double the SP with this revenue base which is growing rapidly with high margin alternatives (apparel, offline distribution)

At 48p, THG looks significantly mispriced.

Both Beauty and Nutrition are back in growth (+6.3% in Q3) for the first time in four years, debt is down to ~£180m (refinanced to 2029), and MyProtein subscriptions jumped +50% vs H1 – a major driver of recurring revenue.

The Google investment into THG Ingenuity (now fully separate from THG PLC) removes financing overhangs and proves the platform’s long-term credibility.

Add to that:

Two pending FMCG partnerships, including a global confectionery leader, expected before mid-November (pre-Black Friday).

A likely £45m VAT rebate after HMRC’s failed appeal.

FTSE 250 fund inflows and shorts still covering after reinclusion.

With sentiment improving, cleaner structure, and strong catalysts ahead, a 70–80p share price by year-end looks realistic — even conservative — if one or both RNS announcements land before mid-November.

This one also interesting, indicates licensing agreements to follow through this week:

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7385993251146641408/

Exciting times with this ridiculously cheap stock

The potential is huge here. Myprotein is now Iceland Foods’s fasted-growing exclusive brand!

Wait till their new partnerships are announced. This will rocket up next months.

Sit back and enjoy the ride up.

The rate of growth acceleration is pretty impressive and just getting started. Does not look like a temporary effect. If growth accelerates from here with new partnerships then this will continue into year end. Still incredibly cheap at these levels.

Yes indeed. Current fair value is around 1.35 I guess based on conservative EBITDA numbers coming years and without accounting for VAT case, disposals and much higher revenues with better margins than accounted for to get to a 1.35 valuation. Entertaining to see this re-rating happening in realtime.

They'll be crawling for shares every little new update

Yes agreed. Try the new advent calendar to get a taste of their products. It's all great quality with fabulous taste. Apparel great move as well. Better margins with rocketing revenues is very promising near term.