Member Info for jam2morrow

I think GF shareholders have voted on a deal ''no more than £190M''(that's from memory so figure could be wrong) and that equates to just under 70p per share..........but..........they made this provisional offer and then retrospectively put it to shareholder vote; so they could repeat the process with a better offer? There is also the remote possibility of returning ZNWD shares as a sweetener.
If they came back with an 80p offer, it would still be a crap deal for shareholders, but i'd probably vote for it because i've had enough of the BS. Could that be the way they've 'workshopped' it.
You would assume that if someone came in with a higher offer that the board would recommend it, but as johnpwh says, how would any bidder get around GF's 28.8 ?

Too dense......Ariel.......Those extra 0's make all the difference...but we want them behind the decimal point !

my feeling was he1 retrace to single figures on a fail, so actually has held up better, for longer. I think scirocco played theie hand very well here and, of course, we must remember when dealing with millions its not easy to be nimble and catch every peak and trough.
will be interesting to watch what the next plan is at he1, seems to have a lot of PI interest so money still to be lost and made. I also think there is a possibility of one of the big guys picking it up - the gas is down there somewhere

because this phrase is used in the latest PUSU RNS :
The Possible Offer remains subject to certain other pre-conditions as set out in the announcement on 6 May 2021, including in particular the Due Diligence Pre-Condition. The satisfaction or waiver of the Due Diligence Pre-Condition is at the sole discretion of the Ganfeng Board.
I think that the BCN board have used 'due diligence' because its the easiest excuse for them but Ganfeng , and Beijing, know the company inside out, so its an excuse that is exasperating for the shareholders.......if they use it again, it becomes farcical

cause this phrase is used in the PUSU RNS :

Thnx for the wireline share @russ . I've been looking thru some of the earlier interviews and D Minchin has said that wirelogging ...may/may not.....be possible with this slimline rig; so it was a known problem.
The bigger issue here, for me, is the lack of free gas flow. I think it tells them that there is no reservoir trap throughout the drill depth that is working as predicted. He mentions in crux interview that Tai 'fail' is possible if helium is migrating thru the fault and not being stored.
This is all my informed guesstimation, I am hoping for an RNS next week that reviews the drill and what has happened, and what that means for future drills

Yes @ Phantom that is my layman's thoughts. I am trying to second guess what they will do next. The lack of free gas flow here says to me that they will move site. I think if they were confident of commercial gas then they would go to appraisal at Tai.
I don't know enough about drilling......an appraisal at same site would take the same time as new site set up and exploration drill ?

There must be an advantage to sinking an exploration well ? cost ? speed?
Just asking people with drilling knowledge if you had a 'must drill' target then why not go straight off with an appraisal well ?

@Marik - any ideas on the cost difference between an appraisal well and an exploration well ?
Would/could a company go straight off with an appraisal if they felt there could be wire logging issues with an exploration ?

If our board recommends another extension (and it's entirely possible) then they need to start explaining. The due diligence excuse will not wash anymore. It would not be so bad if we have continued site progress but no updates since beginning earthworks.
I still think an improved offer is possible

If the buyer has more than 3% they would have to RNS ? is that correct?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exlrGekW6e0
No real pointers to future plans ; no free gas flow so I assume move onto next target. Well done to SCIR for their share managment here, lets hope the good decisions continue. HE1 price actually holding up quite well considering .

agree that 'project progress' is the key. The role of the takeover panel is to stop hostile bidders putting a company into stasis with their offers. Here the scenario is different in that the 'independent directors' have recommended the deal so there, is little that the takeover panel can do. I would really like to see some reports on site progress; if things have slowed on site because of the proposed bid, then shareholders will be the losers

@orangecannon....'virtual guarantee' is probably overstating it; we don't have a formal offer yet and if it becomes formal at 67.5p then it may get voted down: most on here think it's a crap deal.
Price Downside - no deal and re-trace to ....50p??
Price upside - better deal than 67.5 if they really want it

Are u being disingenuous @Bob ?..........Hmmmm
To make amends you can try to find a re-scheduled date for this elusive court case......I've given up already!
COE = Colin Orr Ewing , original CEO of the company, died 2016, sadly. Wonder what he'd think of the company now ?

some feedback from Takeover panel and as I suspected : If the BCN board are recommending that a further extension be allowed, then the takeover panel will also sanction it. Explained to me that they could intervene if hostile bidder tried to disrupt company.....but this is an 'approved bid'.......not unknown for there to be several extensions.
What P's me off is the due diligence excuse. If Ganfeng don't know everything about this company by now then they never will. I will try and get a response from the Co' as to why they're sanctioning these extensions but I won't hold my breath.
The only real unknowns are the COE case (church of england were initial stakeholders @Bob :) ) and perhaps the KDNC JV's but nothing that Ganfeng aren't already aware of.
All time high at ZNWD today

I did wonder if an 'imminent' court decision on the COE case might be stretching this out.......but on balance, with ZNWD price increase and more EV / lithium news I think delays only serve to emphasise how low this offer is,

Just sent an e-mail off to the take-over panel. They have to agree to these PUSU extensions so I've asked if they could shed any light on their reasoning. As I pointed out the 'due diligence' excuse doesn't really wash when Ganfeng has been a JV partner for -is it 2 years ?- and every investment they have made has been picked apart by Central Chinese government.
Takeover panel e-mail : supportgroup@thetakeoverpanel.org.uk
Maybe they'll just bounce it back, but worth a try. Probably a bit more trustworthy than our board :(

no, yes and yes @nigella.......it is not a formal offer at the moment so nothing guaranteed. Nothing about this company ever happens quickly.......until it does

5 pm today Put Up or Shut Up.........or extend again

My (unprofessional) understanding of the 52 week rule was that if an offeror was to break the 30% stake holding threshold, they have to offer to buy the rest of shares at the highest price that they, themselves, paid in the last 52 weeks. I think that if the offeror held none or had bought none in the last 12mths then they could offer what they wanted ?
Anyway, pretty academic cos i think chances are slim to none. Never say never tho :)