Member Info for Jakers

The movement in the share price seems to have lost traction. We have spent close to a billion dollars in buybacks over the past month and the stick price is pretty much where it was at the beginning. Evidently buybacks aren't the driver we thought they would be. Maybe all they are doing is preventing the sp from nosediving. I am more and more convinced than ever that dividend reinstatement is the only thing that will move this stock up to £5 and beyond.

Jwd, realistically this war could go on for years, just remember russian involvement in Afghanistan. I believe it rather depends on the international alliance holding firm even in a recession. Also the ability of Ukraine to continue to reclaim land is pivitol. Lots of 'iffs and buts ' but like everyone I wish it end very soon

Spights, yes the Chancellor will have to be the 'fallguy' to save the incompetent buffoon of a Prime Minister. She was a foolish choice and she will never command respect on the world stage. Why did yhey vote for her ??

As of 7th October a total of 1.395bn shares were bought back in 2022. I don't have the breakdown for q3 to hand

Is it not ethical investing, environmental, social & governance???

Which of the following are the primary drivers of the share price:-
1. Dividends
2. Buybacks
3. Oil price
4. Investor confidence
5. Economic factors
6. Other

Thank you Spights

You are right, there's no denying we've got some headwinds to face but we are a great business and seriously undervalued still. Uncle Joe isn't a massive friend of oilers and he desperately needs something to prop himself up in the midterms. Keep the faith.

Morning Meoryou., it wad just my attempt at humour in this gloomy period. The drop over last two days is nothing to do with BP but entirely due to the decisions taken by the chancellor. The BoE will have to keep pumping to buy up the bonds until some sanity returns. Yes the pound is rubbish atm but good for exports. 80% of North Sea Oil is exported so that's a positive for earnings. Have a good day

HGN
yes we are dropping back a bit unfortunately but its not due to your investment decisions. This blib is more to do with our inept dysfunctional governments decisions to borrow massive amounts of money without providing adequate accountability detailing how the loans will be serviced. There seems to be a huge disconnect between government/treasury/Bank of England currently and its costing the country dearly. We are just a victim of these circumstances but hopefully common sence will prevail and this farce will be resolved soon. BP is sound as a pound lol

Jwd, I'm getting anxious that you are expecting some kind of guarantee and nobody can give you that. My humble opinion is that we should get to £5 by Xmas. Share price is driven by several factors: Oil price., Dividend., Macro economics , Investor confidence etc etc.
If you want to remove all risks from your investments then perhaps the stock market is not right for you. Looking at others posting earlier you can get close to 5% by putting your money into a bond.
bp stock has been at £6 before and I think it will again but that's just my humble opinion.
I wish you good luck with your investments

As for 5.50 - 6 next year your guess ia as good as mine... if you look at the trajectory of the share price over the last year clearly it has improved dramatically. So if that should continue then there's every chance of getting there next year. However, let's focus on reaching £5 and sustaining that price level first. With any luck we might clear that hurdle by Christmas.

Jwd, the price of oil went up last week mainly because of the opec decision to reduce output in a period where demand for oil is strong.
Should we talk ourselves into a recession then demand for oil will be weaker hence lower price.

Hi Meoryou, in all sincerity I've never been a fan of buybacks, but I'm looking at my investment which has a bought in price of £4.81 and you will appreciate that my not inconsiderable hard earned holding has been in constant negative territory for a couple of years now, so I suppose I would've preferred to have had the increased dividend to go some way to breaking even. That's the back-lit, now looking forward I am becoming more and more convinced that buybacks are sustaining the share price but uncertain to what extent. Just look at the billions that have been spent to date and it's an eye-watering amount by any measure. So where would the share price be if the programme is suspended, that's a very difficult question to answer in my view. So then to what extent is oil price driving the share price, again in my view it is having a considerable impact. I'm minded to take the view that when we hit £5 the surplus cash should be returned through either enhanced or special dividend.
These are my thoughts only and nobody should make any decisions to invest or divest without doing their own thorough research. I know you as a seasoned investor will appreciate the importance of the realisation that comments made on this helpful board are simply nothing more that a personal opinion.
Having said that I still view my investment in bp as a fundamentally sound investment that will give a good roi looking forward.
GLA
jakers

Jwd., its difficult to predict when oil may return to $60. All indications currently seem to indicate an increase north of $100, with some predicting $120. So not any time soon I'm afraid

Shoulda Coulda Woulda lol. We will get to £6 again. Still many more years of mileage in fossil fuels. If nothing else the current crisis has made it perfectly clear the world cannot function without it despite the protestations from the Gretta's. That won't change in my lifetime.

Good morning Zac/Meoryou..
It's scary to see hoe much cash has been spent on buybacks. I wonder how much has been saved on reduced dividends over the period to decide if it has been to our advantage.
Jakers

Didn't we almost make it this time.... couldn't hold on to 4.70 at close but not to shabby at £4.6925. Yes enjoy a great weekend everyone
Jakers

OK Meoryou, let's punt for 470 at Fridays close
...

Good morning Meoryou.,
I wholeheartedly agree with you, it was a horrible disaster and those unfortunate people paid a very high price indeed. bp is a very resilient corporation and has weathered some massive storms from gom to rosneft etc. I don't thing Obama helped our situation at all, like all politicians he protected himself and left bp open to massive fraudulent claims which just got rubber stamped by the US justice system.
Have a good day