Member Info for JackB14

Just highlighting there's no gurantee. Financial Times

https://www.ft.com

How the US plans to break China's stranglehold on lithium

Good point Swest, it's not a Gold/copper mine where there is almost a guranteed world demand. A few factors to consider in this gamble of a stock.

10% down proves otherwise. anyway, this gov needs to sort it's **** out.

Lilpeep, any one that has sold since 2016 has done the right thing so far. Near 10 year low, is comical to say selling is for muppets, desperation... any junior still needing funding and gov permissions is not a wise long term investment. Punt money yes from here. E.g selling when it broke down from 20p was very wise.

History shows its best to follow the price action...

"Looking to the nearer term, we were again extremely active in 2024 evaluating new material opportunities to complement our existing portfolio. We worked on 37 potential acquisitions, signed 13 non-disclosure agreements and undertook six site visits. This activity will remain a key focus of our teams in the year ahead."

Thorough due diligence. Finally pulling the trigger on what in the medium term could be transformational for the company.

Decided to add CAML to the PF with ~40k shares.

Dividend here will be kept in policy range. Which was 13pish last check. With debt repayment reducing that. However there is now a landing strip for future earnings.

Obviously everyone should have sold at 28p after the bid emerged. At the time i would have sold above 30p but it never reached that height. Probably because there was little substance for the bid.

That fact very few mines can survive is telling. If you believe lithium has a future. This mine will get into production.

Where is that stated Teddy?

Might get an anticapation rise again. Maybe to the 200dma again which currently is 11.51p

I know politics and common sense rarely mix. However it would be seen as a success for the current gov to get this to production asap.

Yeah. Things change. I think ALL were pushing the econmics too long with Spod prices far higher given the impression the company would be milking it. Hence the difficulty in changing decision makers opinions.

StockCheque your "strongbuy" recommendations then followed by contrasting statements is interesting. I agree with what you say but it's definitely not a strongbuy. Imo.

If (IF) ratifacation is achieved in the coming weeks/months. The offtake and MIIF money should come in pretty quickly and therefore no raise will be required. Hence the obvios catalyst for the shareprice. Creeping into the end of the year then that will be a threat to the share count. It basically is a gamble at the moment. Ratifaction by July and everyone buying now is laughing.

It can all happen very quickly. There hasn't been this kind of 'motivation' before.

Looking back in 2022 they had ~604m shares so a £410m Mcap at peak intra day 68p, which was ridicously then.

Even recent times 20p Mcap was £138m with spod below $1000. Placing wise. Share count is ~630m now so less than 5% dilution since then. Just shows momentum matters more than reality. So momentum might come back here at a more reasonable price. $150 above B/E still Rev $540m over life span.

Also if you think spodumene prices are staying at this level you wouldnt invest here.

With this share reaching a high of 68p(!) Which with todays share count would have been an £471m Mcap ( not tracking what it was back then, so small Mcap, but not by too much). I always thought it was steeply priced.

However at these levels it is much more attractive. Alot of room for upside once the catalysts start to hit. Speculative buy with small % of PF imo.

Considering the new Gov have only been in for 4 months. Not that long. And now with local Governments and Mining sector ministers calling for speed of action. Seems like actions is in sight.

It has been a very big mess up until now. Lets see what happens when they are back at work(Gov). Things can move very fast. MIIF money straight after rat. Offtake. Shovel ready.

With 75% of Junes lift hedged. The lower spot price the better for negotiations for the next deal that are going on. Risk for this year's oil exposure is 25% Q2 30% Q3 and 38% Q4. E.g great position to have lower oil prices whilst on the hunt for the next deal.