focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Based on UJO's Finals and their 1/6 of WN, Rathlin spent £2.7m on WN in 2023 - where did that money go? what did £2.7m achieve?...oh sorry, I forgot, we now have a bargain basement £9.6m drilling program which will blow the doors off...but where is Rathlin going to find £6.4m when the 2023 cash-burn was astronomic?
Uggy, as I see it, if RBD has to fund Rathlin for £5m plus £1.6m for their 1/6 that only leaves about £2.5m cash.
How long would £2.5m last once they strip out their salaries and G&A...maybe 3 years?
How long until they monetise something? not within 3 year unless Rathlin pull off a miracle at WN
I'll tell you what I want, what I really, really want...
I want to know...
...why Rathlin spent £2.7m on WN in 2023 and were they are wrt a financial solution
...why the ELEP shares weren't written off or written down in value
...why the Kedd side-track didnt go ahead in H2 2023 as promised by EDR
...why Egdon spent £1.4m on Bisc last year
...why the monthly income from US Royalties is being withheld
...why Egdon spent £188k on NK last year (which has never even broken ground)
Watts, the chuckle brothers talk a good game but rarely deliver...funding Rathlin has yet to happen so NSTA permission to drill expires next month...meanwhile, I'm still waiting for my share of the £4m they promised to return to shareholders
31.12.22 cash at bank of £3.6m (Rathlin 2022 accounts)
2023 spend on WN circa £1.8m (my estimate based on UJO's 2023 spend)
new plan costed at £9.6m by RBD
Rathlin needs £6.4m to fund their 4/6 of WN
Conclusion - Rathlin £5m short
UJO published their 2023 accounts today. They own 1/6 of WN which cost them £447k last year, that means Rathlin spent £2.682m on WN last year of which £1.788m was paid by Rathlin and £447k each by RBD & UJO.
This is a major drain on their cash, leaving them with under £1.5m imo. It begs the question how did they manage to spend £2.7m ? Cash-burn of this magnitude may be why we haven't seen a deal brokered...
The Devil's in the details...
West Newton PEDL183 6,137,178 + £447k (2022 5,689,647)
Biscathorpe PEDL253 3,666,898 + £621k (2022 3,045,506)
North Kelsey PEDL241 422,012 + £94k (2022 328,101)
that means Rathlin spent £2.682m on WN last year of which £1.788m is paid by Rathlin. This is a major drain on their cash, leaving them with under £1.5m imo. It begs the question what the hell did they spend £2.7m on?
£621k for our share of Bisc - same question?
Yesterday I posted
"For the year ending Jan 2024, Reach had 13 producing wells averaging 167bpd, that's about 12.8 bpd each."
the data has rolled forward 1 month so now... "For the year ending Feb 2024, Reach had 11 producing wells averaging 161bpd" so 2 wells have dropped out of production. So it seems as though a major success for Andrews will be just as important for Reach as it will be for UJO's sp
For the year ending Jan 2024, Reach had 13 producing wells averaging 167bpd, that's about 12.8 bpd each.
Bramhill said of Andrews "Similar low-cost development wells nearby, typically produce initially at approximately 150 barrels of oil and over 200 thousand cubic feet of gas per day and can provide rapid pay-back within six months."
It will be very interesting to see what it delivers
Hard to ramp rbd with the current management, CS has a very good chance imo but it wont be any where near as lucrative as rbd claimed in october (assuming there's no war in Europe). I suspect WN will still be in limbo in H1 2025, even it if is drilled, dont underestimate Rathlin's ability to screw it up. Meanwhile the leeches draw unjustifiable salaries...
Actually a lot less than than, Wressle currently about 500bpd but only 40% to UJO, plus about 10bpd from Keddington. btw UJO's buy-back is considered a waste of time by most as they were buying when the sp was relatively strong but stopped when the sp was on its knees despite having plenty of cash, overall the buy-back strategy has been a failure. However, when Beacon has cash to spare mopping up shares may be the way to go.
Https://www.shalexp.com/oklahoma/seminole-county
https://www.shalexp.com/reach-oil-and-gas-company-inc
As serif said, consultation ends 21st May - so far (I hope I dont jinx it), not a single objection from households, just archaeology and wildlife concerns.
This is what Egdon said to the community group "Following the conclusion of the statutory consultation period (10th May), Egdon hopes to receive planning consent by 17th June. The next phase of drilling could start in Q1 of 2025" - not sure why they said 10/05 when the application says 21/05 ?
Reabold is the epitome of a lifestyle company, whereas Bramhill is working hard to expand in the US - imo due to the incredibly slow progress by Egdon over the last few years and the unattractive environment created by the government and nimbys. Bramhill's foray into Beacon could/should prove to be a winner in the near future too. Meanwhile we wait for Egdon to side-track Keddington which has been oven-ready for a long time but they seem unwilling or incapable of drilling.
Moniman, I think there's a very good chance CS will be a success. However I still think rbd overpaid, plus the revenue forecast is ridiculously optimistic, imo it deliberately mislead shareholders. It's hard to see how rbd will monetise the investment in the short-medium term unless LNe is bought by a major
This is just one paragraph but summons it up
"We learn from the press – says LNEnergy – of the regret expressed by the mayor of Bomba, Raffaele Nasuti, for our failure to present the Hydrogeological Study, so much so that we asked the Ministry to block our Project. We regret that you have missed our PEC communication to the Ministry on 11 April 2024. In this communication it was specified that by the end of the current month we would send all the in-depth technical-scientific studies, as well as the counter-deductions to the Comments of the Public. In any case, we trust in his willingness to discuss the investigative work carried out, hoping for a greater protagonism of the territory on the management of the project". "LNEnergy has always demonstrated," the Company continues, "its sensitivity towards the territory and its respect for the population, approaching its investigations with caution and respect in the ways and actions, precisely in line with the requirements that emerged from the Preliminary Consultation procedure (for the sake of brevity Scoping) referred to in Opinion 601 of 14 November 2022 of the MASE".