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Not that long ! 17 months will fly by and good bye iraq forever, its the only way for the future of kurdistan.
And the Brazani family making $300m a month of the IOCs.
Who really wants SOMO contacts definitely not the KRG.
Erdogan's visit to Erbil underscores the depth of Turkey's relations with the KDP. Erdogan enjoys a strong rapport with the Barzani family, particularly has good chemistry with Nechirvan and, to a lesser extent, Masrour. While Erdogan could have bypassed Erbil, his decision to visit during a sensitive period, as the regional government faces massive pressure from Baghdad, can be interpreted as a show of support for the KRG. This is significant because Turkey, as a regional powerhouse, possesses substantial tools to influence developments in Iraq, especially in the context of Kurdistan.
Erdogan and Barzani had a straightforward deal: oil for security. Erdogan allowed the KRG to export oil in exchange for unprecedented KDP cooperation in the war against the PKK and permitting deeper Turkish penetration in Kurdistan. In return, Erdogan provided the KDP with a channel to sell Kurdistan's oil, granting it unparalleled leverage against Baghdad. Although Turkey has benefited from a very generous economic agreement, the key focus for Turkey has been the PKK, given that it is the country's most critical national security issue in recent decades.
However, this dynamic has upset since last year, as KRG oil no longer flows to Turkey's Ceyhan port. Erdogan's regional foreign policy pivot towards economic development rather than hard geopolitical goals may also indicate that he is unwilling to completely sacrifice the economic opportunities in the other 16 Iraqi provinces for the sake of just two provinces, especially with the Development Road project, which can further cement Turkey's role as the hub where all continental routes connecting Europe with Asia converge.
2. With this contextual background established, two factors in the coming weeks will determine what Erdogan has agreed upon in Baghdad and how it will impact Erbil and the future of the Kurdistan Region. Given that the meeting with Masoud Barzani was behind closed doors and no information is available regarding the content, developments in the following weeks will clarify what has been discussed based on these two factors:
a) Oil Exports: The readiness of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is a crucial consideration. If exports resume via this pipeline, it will be a positive development for Baghdad, as the Iraqi government desperately needs to restart oil exports from Kirkuk to generate revenue. However, this puts additional pressure on the KRG to hand over 400 barrels of oil to be transported via the Kirkuk pipeline, as stipulated in the budget agreement for the continuation of salary payments from Baghdad to the KRG. If this occurs, it could spell the end of the KRG's oil pipeline, which has been a symbol of the region's economic potential and has elevated the KRG's status in the global energy market, translating into geopolitical influence.
b) Military Operations Against the PKK: The scope and extent of military operations against the PKK and the level of support Turkey receives fro
What are people expecting today ?? A huge sell off after the bloomberg article or a massive rise on expectations.
I'll go for a sell off as them meetings this weekend come to nothing which was obvious. Back to were we started Friday I guess and maybe a revisit to the 90s .AIMHO
This report, published in Kurdish by Erbil's Bwar News website, exposes the major players and staggering profits involved in smuggling crude oil from the Kurdistan Region to Iran and Turkey.
For months, four companies have been illicitly transporting over 700 tankers laden with 160,000 barrels of crude daily across borders into these neighboring countries.
Powerful local business conglomerates have established dedicated front companies to facilitate this underground oil trafficking operation from Kurdistan's fields:
• In Erbil, Makal (affiliated with KAR Group) receives crude from Khurmala in Erbil operated by Forza, exporting it through Haji Omeran and Ibrahim Khalil border crossings.
• Pator smuggles oil from Erbil and Duhok into Iran through Sulaimani province via Bashmakh and Parwizkhan borders - For each tanker to pass into the PUK zone, a charge of $300-360 per tanker is applied.
• Unicode (tied to Lanaz Group) transports Duhok's crude to Iran and Turkey.
• Hydrocarbon Company (linked to Qaywan Group) trafficks fuel from Sulaimani and Koya into Iran.
Once in Iran, Kurdistan's oil is funneled to ports like Bandar Imam, Bushehr and Bandar Abbas, where specialized facilities prep the crude for global export.
While most goes to Iran, portions also reach Turkey, with a portion sent to the Tüpraş Batman refinery and the remainder to the Antakya and Mersin refineries.
Oil producers sell to these trafficking firms at cut-rate $28-$33 per barrel, which resell at $60 - a $25 discount to global prices, netting immense profits.
Specifically, DNO, Genel Energy, Taqa, and HKN sell oil at $31.50 per barrel in Duhok province, while Forza, Khurmala, Ain Zala, and Sufaya sell at $32 per barrel, and Sheikhan oil is sold at $28 per barrel.
These oil producers sell between 200,000 and 250,000 barrels daily to the four companies and domestic refineries, generating over $200 million monthly for producers like DNO, Genel, Taqa and HKN. But the real windfall is for the smuggling companies, raking in around $150 million each month.
Bloomberg just put a big damper on that rise today !!
Iraq saying oil resumption will take some time . Its only been 13 months how much longer do they want ?? Or do they accually want it flowing that's the question. More delaying tactics. Roll on September 2025 then it's Adios Amigos.
That time will fly by for independents baby .
The KRG Ministry of Natural Resources has provided the following information to the Iraqi-KRG joint financial monitoring audit teams regarding oil production in the Kurdistan Region for the year 2023:
The KRG produced 93,829,000 barrels of oil, of which 31,000,000 barrels were exported through the KRG-Turkey pipeline until March 25th. 11,816,000 barrels were handed over to Iraq, while 16,563,000 barrels were allegedly sold to commercial refineries at a mere $7.5 per barrel, despite being commercially traded rather than for domestic use.
Meanwhile, 33,829,000 barrels of oil are unaccounted for. The Kurdistan Region claims to have sold this oil directly to refineries for 1,357,000,000,000 Iraqi dinars. However, according to Omar, this represents smuggled oil transported by trucks to neighboring countries, concealed under the guise of refinery sales.
The reported oil revenues for 2023 stand at $3.621 billion, while expenditures are reported at $3.67 billion, leaving the KRG with a mere $554 million in revenue for the entire year. Based on the KRG's reported numbers, the Kurdistan Region has received only $6 per barrel sold in 2023.
Not without back payments first and and a reasonable PSC.
I think the stumbling block is money's owed which was stolen by the KRG. But know one will own up to that .
Iraq definitely won't pay it and rightly so.
So it's a big stalemate and has been for months .
Local sales till September 2025 then Iraq have no say.
But it's still the back payments that the krg have to stump up. Catch 22 really .
You deal with thieves and this what happens.
Iraqi Oil Minister said that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will soon re-export oil through the Iraqi Oil Marketing Company (SOMO).
The word soon in Iraq could mean days weeks months or years. I will take that with a pinch of salt.
But IMHO something is definitely happening but the main stumbling block are IOCs contracts . Obviously Iraq want to screw the ioc . Probably less profit from local sales. So best hang it out till September 2025. Independents baby
Turkish President Erdogan is scheduled to arrive in Baghdad next Monday, with one of the key agenda items being "natural gas and oil flow," according to his own statement. Several reports suggest that Erdogan not only seeks the resumption of oil exports from the KRG but also aims to secure Kurdistan's natural gas for export to Turkey as soon as possible, especially with apparent U.S. backing.
While Iraq has been preparing to resume oil exports from Kirkuk to Turkey, Erdogan likely prefers resuming exports through the KRG's pipeline, as Turkey has a 50-year contract with the KRG on favorable economic and security terms, with Turkish firms earning over $1 billion annually, in addition to other perks such as holding sway over the KRG's ties with the PKK.
However, Erdogan's interests extend beyond oil to the KRG's natural gas. This would reduce Turkey's dependence on Russian gas for energy consumption and position Turkey as a key gas hub for Europe, substantially increasing its geopolitical clout, in addition to further Turkish influence over the Kurdistan Region.
Erdogan holds several powerful cards against Iraq to push for his demands, the most significant being water. Iraq desperately wants more water from the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which Turkey has gained substantial control over through the construction of several massive dams.
According to informed sources, the 50-year agreement signed by Nechirvan Barzani with Erdogan in 2014 reportedly includes the following terms:
- Turkish companies operating in the Kurdistan Region will be given priority in the KRG oil sector.
- For the next 50 years, Turkey will receive $1 per barrel of oil sold.
- The KRG's oil revenue will be deposited and exchanged at Turkey's Halk Bank.
- The KRG oil pipeline will be guarded by Turkey, with fees paid from the KRG's oil revenue.
- The KRG will lease seven large oil reservoirs at Turkey's Ceyhan Port, with rent paid from its oil revenue.
- The agreement sets the framework for the KRG's relations with the Syrian Kurdish SDF and the PKK.
- Critics claim the agreement's political dimension is to maintain the KDP's power and continue its leaders' rule in the Kurdistan Region with Ankara's support.
- Unofficial reports suggest the Erdogan family is the primary beneficiary of this agreement's proceeds from the Turkish side.
Will 108p hold ?
Looking by the selling yesterday I don't think so!! If 105p goes today expect a visit to 97p and if that goes we could see 80s . Over to the rampers from last week.
The pipeline isn't opening that's a fact now . Local sales keep the lights on. GKP will just sit out until the 25th September 2025 it's the only logical thing to do now. Independents baby and no more Iraq.
The trouble is the Market believes every word of that article.
Hence why GKP is dropping like a stone this morning 90s this week anyone. I wouldn't bet against now .
I hope know one got spiked on that false dawn last week.
Sells after sells at the moment.
Back to square one from last Monday!! All gains wiped out as per usual with GKP . Many more false dawns to go yet so hope everyone makes a few quid trading this farce ?? 90s back on the cards as this will be sold down now .
Hopefully this will be bought out for £1.50p soon enough.