Margin Improvements18 Aug 2025 11:03
I have been doing some financial analysis on the recent report and accounts.
The rate of margin improvement in the current and future years will indeed be very substantial.
Based on a modest assumption of 89,000 additional deployments during fiscal 2026, the average monthly revenue per unit deployed rises from £1.44 (fiscal 2025) to £2.27. I have assumed that all units installed will be to either USA or NFU Mutual, charged at £3.70 per month (equivalent to $5 monthly).
As a consequence, I estimate that the gross margin will rise from 3% in fiscal 2025 to 35% in the current year. In future years, as the proportion of units installed at £3.70 ($5) per month rises rapidly, gross margin will increase to circa 75%, even with increasingly large numbers of deployed units generating minimal gross margin during their first year.
Digging through the weeds in the accounts, there are some modest future growth rate assumptions (CAGR) which point towards rapid improvements in the bottom line.
Sales 54% p.a
Gross Margin 143% p.a
Administrative expenses 6% p.a
My overall conclusion is that on an annual run rate basis, we will indeed hit break even before March 31 2026. Of course the 2026 accounts will still not show break even for the current year, so we may have to continue to be patient, waiting for those not invested to realise what a relatively undiscovered gem Ondo is.
My gut feel is that we will follow the Ting deployment trajectory and reach 1 million deployed units within the next 3 to 4 years, with the business generating very substantial and stable dividend income for investors.