The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Facebook, in my opinion, would not add any value to this company's public relations and in fact could turn out to be a distraction for investors and target for trolls without making any of us more knowledgeable. A FB page will not change the timelines of the projects and it will not change the financial structure Yes, it would be nice to see pictures of what is going on and who is doing it but again, would these really add value to the business? But if we want to educate ourselves about the mining methods used then there are plenty of online sources we can refer to.
I agree with Whyderamp about FB as the algo whatsits are almost sinister in the way they work. EG I have searched for hotel accommodation, equine products on the internet and strangely on FB I get notified of pages I could be interested in offering hotels and equine products.
This BB can get quite heated and this is something I think we have all seen happen on threads on FB. FB can be distracting, disruptive and in some cases destructive so let's keep things simple and factual.
This morning's RNS is just a prelude to the news to come so let's sit back, fasten our seat belts and patiently wait for take off knowing Captain Bill as at the controls.
Have a good day everyone.
My preference is to avoid any books on strategy on the basis that the only ones who make money from them are the authors and publishing houses. Why, if you have developed a successful strategy, would you want to share it instead of keeping it a secret and making a mint.
The only strategy a Wall Street investor told me was to sell out at -5% or at +10% and move on to something else or reinvest in the same shares; especially on the upticks. I ignored his advice back in October but at the moment don't have to worry about the -5% part of the strategy. I followed this strategy on Ceres Power earlier this tax year and actually did quite well in three months.
In summary, I don't believe there is a fool proof method apart from doing your own research, having a hunch, setting your exit strategies and being prepared to put some skin in the game.
I watched this interview and a few things struck me:
1. When Patrick was asked about "fundamentals" he replied that he ignored them.
2. At one point he said that none of can know what is going to happen in the future. That is a revelation.
3. Towards the end of the interview he told the interviewer about the impact of expecting the unexpected that his guess was just as good as everyone else's.
Confirmation bias springs to mind.
His soundest advice was to always take a step back". That is what I am going to do today having bought a small top up and not planning to look at the price of UFO until ten or fifteen minutes before COB.
Hi Forrest
Yes, I fully agree with you on the point that Mr Good is extremely knowledgeable about geology, has a clear vision of how Alien is going to take shape over the next year, two years, three years and five years as a business. My knowledge of mining restricts my answer about the grade of silver available in the ore but I do have an answer for you. "In Good we trust".
Istie
Hi Pashman
As you say, this news "is not earth shattering".
My own view is that there is a lot of what diplomats refer to as "back channel" conversations going on between Alien and other parties and the RNS released this morning is only a small indicator of what is really going on. We still know the EH assay results news is imminent and maybe, just maybe, those will be released consecutively or even concurrently with news of a JV for that project.
As with a couple of other investors here I am very long on Alien and here for the medium to long term so "patience" is the key word. Some may see this lack of whistle and bangs news as an indicator of "bumbling". My preference is to see it as a company moving cautiously, carefully and with managed expectations. I prefer HODLOE - high on delivery vs low expectations to HOPLOD - high on promise low on delivery.
Keep the faith and good luck every one.
Istie
This RNS is positively neutral. Positive in that it is reporting progress, ahead of schedule, and neutral in that however optimistic we are about what is in the ground it still waits to be verified.
Have a good Monday everyone and keep the faith.
Wasn't today, according to some analysts, supposed to be approaching apocalyptic in the silver markets as big banks struggled to fulfill their silver contracts? Or, did I misunderstand the content of the piece with Miles Franklin from the weekend? Anyway, the price of silver in London closed 0.74% down without a meltdown. And as far as I can see there has been no meltdown in the silver market today in New York.
Thank you UTRS
I watched the presentation you linked to and it is interesting.
What I cannot figure, and apologise if this has been answered on here previously, is why the 8 banks repeatedly referred to have gone so short on silver? My experience of commodity trading, on a much smaller scale than these eight banks, was that every trader had preset exposure limits either short or long and any exposure beyond those limits had to be adjusted for with additional trades. That was for the traders. For the clients they could only trade within their margin account balance. Surpluses in the form of cash they could withdraw. Shortfalls they had to make up with additional deposits before they could start trading. And those margin accounts would be monitored throughout the day as with the traders exposures to make sure nothing was happening beyond those constraints.
Istie
But with sports betting it is binary. The punter either wins or loses whereas with the stock exchange the punter can win or they can lose but if they are shrewd enough limit their losses and not lose all of their capital.
Friends of ours a while back were convinced binary trading was the way they were going to enhance their retirement pot. I told them about straight forward investments in equities and was rebuffed with the comment "No, won't do that - it's too risky". I left them to it.
During these lock down time we have been watching West Wing.
I have also been watching this BB and the traffic about how this company should be worth more with the way silver and iron ore is priced. This is when I start hearing Toby Ziegler's voice in my head. It keeps repeating to me "Yes, everyone knows those reserves are in the ground. But, they are worth nothing until they are verified, quantified and producing revenue streams. Until then we sit and wait until those three factors start being quantified."
Realism?
Yes, I wonder why with all the squeezes on supply of silver and iron ore this share price is not taking off.
So, lets just step back from the hyperbole around us. Yes, Alien do have potential reserves of both metals. "Potential" is the operative word here. We are all confident the stuff is there in the ground where the company has mining rights but at the moment two factors are holding us back. One is that however confident everyone is the reserves are there they have not been verified by any results from surveys. Two, none of those reserves can actually be drawn own from to generate revenue for the company which will generate both a healthy top line and a healthy EBITDA. When those two aspects are crystallized in the form of hard numbers then all of us here, not just for day trades, but the LTH's are in for one brilliant experience.
I also cannot see how Chinese New Year is going to influence the price of silver. All the silver used in making any gifts for this time of year was bought ages ago to allow time for the silversmiths to convert it from bars and nuggets into those gifts.
We all have to be patient and wait.
Stay safe everyone not only with regards to COVID but to the cold weather we are having here in the UK>
I saw the interview and as I have said before; if I was sitting on a plane waiting for take off the voice I would want to hear would be that sounding like Mr Brodie's. I wouldn't want flash powerpoints (what the butt can't endure the brain can't absorb), whizz bang hype with whistles and bells, just the facts as they are at that moment.
Good luck everyone who is here for the long run and have a great weekend.
HI 944T
Couldn't agree with you more about keeping calm. I checked the price when it was well up this morning, spent the day with the horses and cleaning tack. Come back home just before close and there we are; a modest rise of nearly 6%. I am happy with that and hope that anyone who got swept up in the hype this morning has not got too badly hurt.
PS all I want from UFO is to get my SAAB93 soft top renovated.
In the FT this morning there is "Reddit traders switch sights to silver after equities attack".
It strikes a cautionary tone that despite this most recent surge in interest in silver “…it would be more difficult for retail investors to influence the silver price as opposed to that of a single equity, given the large off-exchange market for the precious metal, where banks trade on behalf of clients.”
And concludes with the following:
“Mr Norman said the Reddit forum’s targeting of large banks was misplaced since the lenders used futures contracts to hedge their physical holdings of silver, meaning they were not speculating on the price falling. “There is a misnomer here that banks are constantly running short positions, but from a price perspective they are neutral, they have a long and a short that cancels each other out,” he said.”
I do want Alien to succeed in a way that is measured in the share price based entirely on fundamentals which hopefully we will have verified evidence of over the next few weeks. What I caution against are "bubbles" caused by intense waves of speculation. And as with all waves some will drown while a few will get washed ashore.
I shall enjoy watching today as a spectator only.
GLA