Member Info for Ishi99

Great stuff.

Net cash inflow of over 150mil ytd (vs negative last year)

And free cash outflow of 39mil vs (505mil last year)

Losses are decreasing significantly without major high priced specials.

DBX derivative of mild hybrid and sport version on the way. More efficient and high production change in st Athan

Q4 should be nice.

Hkk

I don’t try to or want to influence people ever.
Trying to have an unbiased view.
I do hold a small holding in this share, and I am still very undecided about which way this will go.
The £10 valuation didn’t seem excessive if they deliver in the future. Especially since even that valuation didn’t come anywhere close to us rivals based on a p/s ratio.

Basically I invested an amount I could lose and I wouldn’t cry about it or effect me for the rest of my life.
Which ever way you look at it, this is a risky investment, and the stock market in the end is a fancy way of gambling.

My only concern is Darktrace does not get the same support as us tech companies do.
DT is outmatched by the sheer valuations and ease at which us tech can raise capital and not dent their valuations so much, because less dilution is needed to raise the same amount of capital. This will then increase their cash flow (positively) and so over inflating their balance sheet while making their stock gain even more on the back of this.
And this process repeats itself over and over.

This is not what happens in the uk.
I still remember poor blue prism vs ui path and other us automation companies.

Darktrace need to keep up their good sales to support their market share price. Their investment in sales and marketing gives them an edge over us rivals in this respect.
Hopefully they will invest in r&d too and not just give the talk and no action.

Finally As I understand and saw that dark trace has a high international holding of institutional investors right?
This diversification should help sustain the stock value.
I need to do some more checking on the holders since I am not entirely sure. But yes the more diversified the holders are, the stronger the background side of the stock.

Guys looking at all tech stocks with huge past growth like Apple or any other one, which has a long history on the stock market, you can see the stocks behaviour in the market.
For example Apple:
It’s stock in the first cycles reached a peak of $6.5. Then dropped to almost half that. Before continuation of upward cycle.
My point is maybe dark trace will never be the giant that Apple is or have the name and brand image.
However every stock with a lot of early investment and then flotation goes through the exact same thing. These few days of falls have come after a huge sustained upward gain. The way I see, This fall is healthy.

IMO it’s a great thing Darktrace got promoted into the ftse 100.
For those who doubt it’s promotion please ask yourselves why were they allowed to be promoted based on market cap? It was public knowledge that Morissons will be removed after it being bought.
If investors didn’t think Darktraxe should be the company that should get promoted they would have sold.

For those who are really bullish, please remember that there can be huge fluctuations in the price especially with the lock up and volumes that may be sold from those lock ups. This is a very early stage company and I think it can go either way for them.

They can either collapse to other competitors because of lack of strategic competitive traits or become a leader.

It’s up to management to decide to act on critical investment and for investors to back them through the stock market.

All This will be decided in the coming months and next year.

There are some nice strategic analysis you can do like:
VRIN
VRIO
To analyse the competitive advantage and long term potential of the business in question.
Some food for thought.

There are some external forces at play here.
A ftse250 company should not be dropping 20% based on an analysts rating.
This performance would happen if results and earnings suddenly turned from great to road kill.

There also could be some external forces at play. Yesterday’s drop happned before the rating came out. PH rating just put more logs on the fire.

Currently there are 3 price ratings by brokers on this stock.
Berenberg, Jefferies are both- buy circa 1000p
Peel hunt - sell 470p

IMO jefferies are the largest independent investment bank on an international basis. PH is tiny.
However Jefferies might be a little biased based on it being involved in the ipo of the company.

However, my main issue to comprehend here, is that a stock on main listed 250ftse should not be influenced soooo much in a single days of trading based on 1 single analysts rating especially someone like PH.
Why am I saying this? Because I think some of the analysis points they pointed out are either wrong (to influence the price) or are totally without any facts behind them.
This would be true for the part they talk about unhappy customers. They don’t back up their statements with any facts.
Their point about DT being in the NDR market place I don’t exaclty agree with while they also don’t consider future capex on technology and it’s possibilities in future growth.

Dbx will do well. Suvs always do well.

But the sport cars may also surprise in results.
I am saying this because (as I said previously) there are relatively low volumes on stock in US and Uk.

I hope Moers manages to improve on Margins in medium term. They are toooo low at the moment. I think it was below 10% no?

They need to make much more on these cars.

Vorlich,

Last I checked autotrader.com, it had 291 units off all types of Astons.

That significantly down on the 400+ a month or so ago.

In uk there is around 4-5 units new. (Autotrader uk)
You can also check the actual dealer sites and they tell the same story.

Both the US and UK “new” market are in constant equilibrium for a few weeks now, with just a few +- adjustments sometimes.

The question is are they shifting extra cars in the background, in terms of “made to order” units. Or are there no cars coming off of the assembly line that don’t list as “new inventory”?

Look at this back a few years ago by no other than Bentley’s Bentayga.
The fuel connector…
https://carbuzz.com/news/bentley-bentayga-recalled-for-a-very-serious-problem

Unfortunatley, this is the car industry, not watches or TVs.

Many components interacting with many others of both mechanical and electrical nature, and even chemical ones too.

Works here…
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.roadandtrack.com/news/amp35519474/aston-martin-valkyrie-active-aero-sound-track/

This was back sometime ago.

I just don’t think they wanted to turn it on. Maybe cause they have not improved it to perfection. But it does work.
As for the part that broke, unfortunately welcome to engineering. Nothing is guaranteed to work unless it’s been tested for fatigue or uts over a long period of time.

Aml_007

I am not surprised, I was sarcastic.

I am just trying not to hate or get winded up.

Tbf I couldn’t care less what others think of this share price or the company. My only interest is for the management to have the highest regard for the brand and it’s welfare, and for them not to mess up.

After 1 year I am very happy with the companies progress. And it would be very difficult to argue why the current situation is not A LOT better than 1.5 years ago.

Every promise up to this point has been kept by the new management. Inventory of great/sport cars are very low compared to 2019. There are almost 0 new cars in uk, 200 gt/sport cars in USA, (I can’t find an estimate for EU or China, but I would assume it’s around that.) So that agrees with managements 500-700 stock cars at one time globally.
Furthermore, Balance sheet is far stronger because of refinancing loans, and capital raise over the year.

Yes anyone can argue that the interest payments are large, however there is nothing wrong with debt until it’s managed and can be repayed or re financed, and hopefully if results progress it will be refinanced on a much lower interest loan later.

All this all is obviously my OWN opinion and therefore nothing should be taken as true or for granted.

If you put it that way, I wouldn’t be able to choose ??. I would stay clear of all this ( in terms of betting).

The question is, did the dealer breach any regulations that were signed between dealer and company, and whats under the nebula project ag hood.

Yes c264

However you failed to highlight what happens if they win…
You know the positives…

In this case I very much doubt Aston’s senior management including Moers (who has been in automotive industry for 25 years) and Lawrence Stroll who has been to court countless times, would waste resources if they think they will:

A. Lose
B. Not worth doing

There has definitely been some serious strategic thinking that’s been done (IMO).

It seems to me if, the st Galen dealer really did breach dealership agreements that were in place with Aston, then that would seem the likeliest reason that Aston would assume they can tear up past paperwork. So it is definitely more than just the Valkyrie project.
This info is stated in online sources (before someone starts questioning some of my facts).

Trust me, if you knew how long I have been invested, and hoping for the right people to come along and sort this mess out at Aston…
Longggg time

This whole situation reminds me of what Rolex does to AD’s who defy their price and selling regulations.

Takes away their AD statues.

Court battles are unpredictable.

But I think Aston has a strong argument, based on what is in the news. I want to see what the af ag dealer board say later.

Yes.

The News online and I think RNS also stated that the Swiss dealer also broke their agreement on some car sales other than the Valkyrie. They basically didn’t adhere to dealer agreements.

I don’t know all the background stuff but I think Aston has a strong case here.

There is 0 effect on the sp from this news (seems to me).

What ever is going on behind the scenes there might be a little “power show” which might be the entire point of this.

Going back to earlier posts I don’t see why some people are saying that q2 results will be “bad”. Maybe they are losing money, but they will IMO sell more cars.

I am basing my last sentence from data on car websites including auto dealers “new stock” levels

Including the fact there is barely any new astons for sale in the uk now.

IMO The hardest market for them to crack will be the USA one. They probably have the largest new stock inventory. But half of the inventory are the dbx suvs, so they should be able to shift them more quickly.

I agree with you it’s not serious.
They terminated their dealership contract with them. The question is can they prove all this in court.

But I am just thinking “how the **** can this happen?!”

After reading the RNS, IMO doesn’t sound too bad.
Financially it’s just a little hiccup which over the long term doesn’t matter.

It’s more the incompetence of previous management which is baffling me. And they are cause Aston’s name to be less appreciated.

I wonder what will happen today 8:00am.