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I may be wrong but would like people to chime in in helping me understand where RR is post RI.
On 1st Jan 2021, RR had around 1.3B shares in issue with a price around 243p. This gives an MCAP of £3.15B
Today RR has around 8.36B shares in issue, with a price around 102p. This gives an MCAP of £8.5B
That's a difference of around £5.35B.
Now RR recently raised £5B so relatively speaking, with a current SP of 102p, RR has an MCAP £0.35B higher than pre pandemic levels.
Is that correct?
Always said I would be back in if and when a vaccine is announced. Purchased £30k today as I feel like gambling although there is still real risk here which I have outlined below....
- Vaccine still undergoing safety reviews details of which are expected in the third week of November. The results themselves are yet to be peer reviewed but fingers crossed it all comes good.
- If all good and the vaccine is authorized, the vaccine may be available as early as December/January for front line workers and the elderly.
- We are looking at Spring/Summer 2021 best case scenario for things to get back to normal, assuming vaccine supplies are available and the proper planning is in place to disseminate the vaccine.
- It's safe to say that studios are likely to push their movie schedules to Spring/Summer 2021, in time for normalcy and to get the best bang for buck.
- The million dollar question is, can Cineworld function with the money they have left to Spring/Summer 2021 or will they have to raise money.
GLA
Actually my maths is wrong, it's better to look at this using MCAP.
The MCAP in Jan was £17 Billion
The MCAP today is £7.2 Billion
So RR is down 60% from year highs presently.
In January, the share price was 2000 and after the recent fund raising, in old money, the share price is still under 300.
RR now a fully funded business, currently undertaking cost cutting and money making measures to streamline their business, and still positioned with over 60% market share for airplane engines and likely a vaccine announcement expected from Oxford/AstraZeneca before the end of the year.
Yep I think for those that aren't too risk averse, this spells multi-bagger to me at current prices over the next several months.
Down 9% in IAG on a £10k punt investment. Planning on buying more for the inevitable vaccine news pre-Christmas.
Up 23% in RR as of this morning, recovering all my IAG losses and then some.
Investment is based on the fact that air travel is back to 98% pre-Covid-19 levels in China. If they can do it, we can do it.
Crucially I Invested in the above companies AFTER they resolved their liquidity issues and may just do the same here in Cineworld, if they resolve their like I've been saying for ages.
Unfortunately Cineworld are in too bad shape financially to leave existing shareholders with anything in my view. Wouldn't touch it with a barge pole.
Going into Winter :s
Sorry, I've sold to bank the profits.
Don't know anything about this company to stay invested.
Bought in £3k at 1.85p.
Should have bought £30k instead.
Now excuse me whilst I learn about what this company does loll
Another huge blow for theaters....
Coming 2 America is not coming 2 theaters.
Instead, the film is reportedly making the jump to streaming, in a blockbuster deal that is said to be in nine-figure range. According to Variety, Paramount Pictures is “in the process” of selling Coming 2 America, the long-awaited sequel to Eddie Murphy’s popular 1988 comedy, to Amazon Studios, “ in a deal worth roughly $125 million.”
https://screencrush.com/coming-2-america-amazon-prime/
https://variety.com/2020/film/news/eddie-murphys-coming-2-america-moves-from-paramount-to-amazon-studios-1234799523/
Read More: ‘Coming 2 America’ Now Coming 2 Amazon Prime Instead of Theaters | https://screencrush.com/coming-2-america-amazon-prime/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral
Looks like the US likes to be ahead of everyone else, currently seeing 3 weeks of increased cases and going for what looks like a third spike.
Just what Cineworld needs right now, the potential for further states to go into local lockdowns, for the third time.
@Westwood747
You're new here but let me give you the skinny. I already made £60k odd profit here. 62p to 94p investing around £115k. I
I also made a further £2.5k on Cineworld recently, buying £5k at 18p on the drop and selling at 28p. 50% profit in 60 minutes.
I think I know what I'm doing.
Cineworld and IAG are both a gamble but I see positive newsflow for airlines as governments are finally looking to get air travel sorted out with mass testing regimes. Unfortunately Cinema is too unimportant for anyone to care about the industry and Cineworld is in the $hitter with it's level of debt and lack of movie draw.
Both business need liquidity, IAG have just shored up the finances, Cineworld have just said via RNS that they too are looking for further liquidity now.
With the focus on airlines now, they are a better bet in my opinion. I see IAG as the better recovery play. Cineworld may be a recovery play if and when liquidity is sorted. Cash is king right now.
Still have Cineworld on my watchlist but not until their inevitable RI/dilution is out the way.
So with Cineworld currently in the doldrums, I thought this be a good idea for a thread for people to suggest where to invest in order to potentially recover any losses/make further gains. I'll start....
After having followed them for a while, as of Tuesday, I bought £20k worth of shares in IAG at 96p as a potential recovery punt for the following reasons:
- They recently had an oversubscribed rights issue and have raised further liquidity. That is now out of the way.
- IAGs lucrative routes are transatlantic and over in the US, they are looking to prop up their airlines
- A UK task force has been setup by Grant Shapps to look into at how to get the UK travel business going again. They aim to have preliminary details of tangible action by early November as outlined on his Twitter account yesterday. The rumour is they plan to employ mass testing at airports and try to therefore greatly reduce the quarantine time from the current 14 weeks, making travel more attractive.
- The UK and US are jointly looking at allowing flights with a special kind of Covid-19 passport. Trials to commence immediately.
- AZ/Oxford vaccine news expected sometime before the end of the year which may boost the markets.
- Rumors the NHS prepping for mass vaccinations to start by year end.
- SP still very low but still a high risk investment.
I believe it to be a punt on a recovery play here to hopefully double my money but let's see.
Remember, don't invest what you can't afford to lose and do your own research.
Any other stock tips welcome. I have £160k just sitting ready to invest. Trying to find the diamonds in the rough. Any suggestions?
Bought £20k at 96p as a recovery punt for the following reasons:
- RI out of the way and liquidity sorted
- US looking to prop up their airlines
- UK task force looking at how to get our travel business going again and with the UK and US jointly looking at allowing flights with a special kind of Covid-19 passport
- Vaccine news expected sometime before the end of the year, especially from AZ/Oxford
- Rumors the NHS prepping for mass vaccinations by year end
Recovery play here to hopefully double my money but let's see.
Ultimately this isn't a question of PVOD vs Cinema right now, this is a question of Cineworld survivability.
No1, including myself doubts Cinema. Cinema is here to stay
Can Cineworld though survive until theaters can be re-opened safely such that studios too then are confident to release their movies.
That is the real question and it is looking very precarious right now as Cineworld has simply too much debt to service with little income.
A restructuring is inevitable, all RNSs point to a liquidity exercise being undertaken as we speak.
@DanielSan
Agreed piracy is a huge issue for PVOD releases, but to an extend piracy is an issue for movies in theatres too, albeit not in HD quality.
Piracy didn't appear to affect Mulan much on Disney+. They still apparently made a killing, although not enough to push Black Widow to PVOD also but rather delay it.....for now.
@Damodubya
Summer 2021, will Cineworld survive and if so, can it do it without wiping out shareholders.
The SP suggests possibly not.
Cinemas take up to half the split of a global take whereas streaming, especially in the case of Disney for example, take the entire take.
Viewing habits are changing, WB is reportedly considering the PVOD release after the apparent huge success Mulan has had on their streaming platform, not just for the £20 price, but also subscribers that are now customers, signing up solely for Mulan but now on the platform.
Businesses are innovating new ways to bring content to people.
You may not want to watch a movie at home but based on Mulans response, and the huge shift to streaming, especially during lockdown, the data suggests that the balance may be shifting.
I don't think you can call yourself credible either having ramped this down from £1 to 28p.
Movies are being pushed left right and centre to either late next year or to PVOD. Writing is on the wall.
Looks like WB want to see how successful they can be on PVOD in comparison to Tenet.
https://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/woman-1984-rumored-straight-streaming/
IAG is on my watchlist, again with potentially a £5k, £10k punt only.
The survival of IAG too rests on...
A vaccine
A buyer
Advances in testing alongside a global initiative to test passengers on arrival, thereby preventing the spread of the virus across borders, providing airlines a lifeline.
Any of these could multibag IAG but that's a big if. IAG is extremely risk right now, as are all airline stocks.
Fellas I think it's important to distinguish between Cinema and Cineworld
Cinema is an art form that will likely not die in the near future. Cineworld is a business that may fall into admin in the near future. Cineworld going into admin does not mean the end of cinema. It means new owners for the cinemas.
Cinema surviving is a given, Cineworld surviving, not so rosy.