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IAG present MCAP is £7.6 Billion of which £2.5 Billion is the cash they recently raised after the RI
IAG pre-pandemic MCAP was £12.1 Billion
IAG have everything they need to weather out the Covid-19 storm now that vaccines are on the horizon. I believe IAG will continue to recover towards their pre-pandemic levels in the weeks and months ahead.
Clearly huge upside potential here. This is no AIM stock.
Moderna has submitted their vaccine candidate data for review to the Swiss company Swissmedic in order to get it approved for use in Switzerland.
Positive news that the vaccine is now being submitted to countries for review in order to expedite the use and subsequent treatment in patients.
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/swissmedic-begins-rolling-review-modernas-mrna-vaccine-against
I do not expect it to go back to sub 40p.
Those holding from lows of 25p would have sold out on the drop down from 65p to bank profits. The good news of Pfizers vaccine as well as upcoming announcements of Oxford's and Moderna's vaccines still needs to be factored into the price and I believe that is now in play, keeping the stock at 40p+.
No-one will want to be out over the weekend, in case news of those vaccines lands in the next two days. News of both vaccines is expected sometime this month so I'm happy to hold at these levels.
A turning point is coming. I fully expect to double my money in the weeks/months ahead.
@Myoh
Yes and no, I believe there will be more releases next year due to several reasons:
1. A large backlog of movies to show
2. Pent up demand for people to get out and return to normalcy
3. Need for escapism drawing in more punters than usual
4. Production for movies has not ended so there is not this drought you are suggesting. Movies have continued production despite Covid-19, much like how Premier League games have continued despite spectators
5. Studios need to recover their money, much like theaters and get the release calendar back to normal.
Major distributors will never go streaming only. Sure there are movies that can go direct to streaming platforms and some do but the big blockbusters, the ones you want to watch with friends and family on a huge screen, Marvel movies, you will not see debut on the big screen. There is no way that Disney will want to risk a huge draw like The Avengers (highest grossing film of all time) to debut on a streaming platform.
I believe boom time is closer than we all think. This virus is particular dangerous to the elderly and those with underlying health conditions. They will be at the front line come December/January for the vaccine. The rest of us can live with it without serious complications. Covid-19 will become another seasonal virus, much like the Flu, which we already live with.
I think at that point, the economic argument will win hands down as the death figures will fall and with that, businesses around the world will resume normal operation as fast as possible.
Who the hell is following lockdown measures right now anyway?!
AMC may go bust, but Cineworld, unlikely. They may need to raise more debt, refinance, something like that but I am confident they can weather out this storm into Q1/Q2 next year when many scientists are now starting to say as of Monday, will be when we return to business as normal for all of us.
@yodaforce
Airline CEOs such as Mike O Leary of Ryanair expect air travel to be back to pre-pandemic levels by Summer 2020 assuming a vaccine is approved and made available by the end of the year.
The NHS and co are working towards that very goal as we speak.
The vaccine news has reverberated around the world and Ryanair have observed a surge in future bookings taking place.
This vaccine has lit the recovery match.
Besides, we have 150+ bets on the vaccine lottery. Pfizer may be the first to report but is no means the last. Oxford/Astrazeneca are due to report anyday now. Moderna have just submitted their data for analysis and are likely to report this week. Their vaccine is expected to be around 90% effective too, similar to Pfizer...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-11/spotlight-to-shift-to-moderna-s-covid-vaccine-trial-in-days
"The preliminary data on Moderna’s study is being prepared for submission to the monitoring board, Moderna said. The board will say whether the vaccine is effective, doesn’t work, or that the trial should continue because the results are inconclusive.
The bet among top experts in the field is that Moderna’s therapy, which uses a similar mRNA technology to Pfizer’s, will likely prove to be highly effective, perhaps mirroring Pfizer’s announcement earlier this week that its shot appears to be more than 90% effective."
The time to buy for a quick recovery bet is now.
@tomc1
Online charts have been updated to reflect the new shares balance.
On 31/12/2019, the number of shares in issue for IAG were 1,984,330,139. The share price was around 610p I believe giving a market cap of around £12,104,413,848.
As of today, there are 4,965,791,095 shares in issue. At todays price of 144p, the market cap is around £7,150,739,177.
IAG needs to rise around 70% from current levels to get back to pre-pandemic MCAP.
Fantastic news
"The preliminary data on Moderna’s study is being prepared for submission to the monitoring board, Moderna said. The board will say whether the vaccine is effective, doesn’t work, or that the trial should continue because the results are inconclusive.
The bet among top experts in the field is that Moderna’s therapy, which uses a similar mRNA technology to Pfizer’s, will likely prove to be highly effective, perhaps mirroring Pfizer’s announcement earlier this week that its shot appears to be more than 90% effective."
The number of people interested in taking this vaccine is more or less the same as people wanting to take any vaccine at any given time. Anti Vaxxers are not a new phenomena and have been around since the advent of vaccines.
The latest survey I heard of LBC last night said out of those asked, 1 in 5 would not want to take the vaccine, which is unchanged from how many people under normal circumstances would not take a vaccine.
A similar survey in September broadly came out with the same figure, found here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/a-fifth-of-people-likely-to-refuse-covid-vaccine-uk-survey-finds
1 in 5 is the typical figure of anti vaxxers across the board.
You need about 60% of the population immunized to get effective herd immunity FYI.
With around 150 vaccines in development around the world and two having been showing with 90% efficacy (Pfizer), a 92% efficacy (Sputnik V from russia) and Oxford/AstraZeneca due to report any day now, there is real optimism that by late Spring/Early Summer. Things will be back to normal.
Look how giddy the scientific community are about all this. It's mainly the retirees and front line workers that are at risk from this disease and they are far less likely to be anti-vaxxers than anyone else.
Hold, long and strong! The boom is coming.
Ryanair expects air passenger numbers to bounce back in 2021. Michael O’Leary rubbishes industry predictions recovery from pandemic will take years.
The airline’s chief executive, Michael O’Leary, said passenger volumes should reach 75-80% of pre-Covid levels in 2021, especially if a vaccine was developed by the spring.
Speaking at the World Travel Market conference, O’Leary said he was optimistic that Covid vaccines would be rolled out before the peak summer season in 2021.
“There’s going to be an enormous snapback on travel demand … Mrs O’Leary is very keen to go back to the Algarve and I suspect she’d be there in 2.5 nanoseconds after the coronavirus restrictions are lifted. I think she’s reflective of the overwhelming majority of Europe’s population, and they will go back,” O’Leary said.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/10/ryanair-expects-air-passenger-numbers-to-bounce-back-in-2021
@indepthwins
Cinemas did open before October. Remember Tenet?
Further delays in the movie calendar were a given, I saw that a mile away and ran.
Now though, I'm investing again because this time it's different, with a clear path out of this mess, I'm sure lenders will be lenient. They have no reason not to be and it is in their interests to do so.
We can expect safety data in a week or two. The vaccine is due to be peer reviewed too. Oxford is to report. The US are also itching to get their hands on a vaccine and are likely to green light something somewhat efficacious fast under operation warp speed. The buzz around this vaccine is not going to dissipate fast I reckon.
Now I think it is likely that there will be some sort of fund raise but lets see what happens with this vaccine. If it comes out this side of the year, perhaps Cineworld won't need to raise cash.
Either way, I expect the share price to rise into any funding news, be it debt or dilution. A financed company going into a likely post pandemic environment is what investors are after. Its just a case of timing this right but either way I expect a handsome rise in SP going into 2021.
I reckon tomorrow will likely start with a slow and steady upward trend for most shares as the news sinks in overnight as we head into the Christmas period.
Also, Oxford/Astra are due to report on their vaccine in the next week or so and that too looks extremely promising.
Mr Joe Biden is already positioning himself as a more sensible President, making moves to create a Covid-19 task force and asking people to wear masks. The messaging will start to shift over in the US.
Sure there may be some volatility, nothing goes up in a straight line, but remember, Cineworld is probably one of the most battered leisure stocks around. Even after today's rise, it needs over 400% to get back to pre-pandemic levels.
Now I don't see it hitting that anytime soon, but getting around 80p from here; doable and I've bet £30k on it at a 38p average.
Concerns about the high number of cases in the US remain. Concern about liquidity remain and I hope I don't get diluted. I'd much rather prefer debt financing which would be a big win for shareholders. Especially with both a vaccine and bumper movie calendar in 2021 to look forward to.
I can't think of a better recovery play at these levels, I hope my gamble isn't wrong. If it drops, I'll buy more, but I think the risk of bankruptcy has dissipated as we find ourselves with a root out of the pandemic. Long hold it is.
lol I meant 2020.
And yes, online charts have factored in the re balanced shares therefore looking at charts from 2019 do not show the old SP but the new adjusted SP.
Makes sense to me now. Thanks to all that cleared it up.
I asked a question you nonce. Don't you see the question mark...
*Is that correct?*
Some fellas over at RR have corrected me over there and I was expecting the same over here.
I sold my IAG shares today at 138p thinking the price was above pre-pandemic levels. The chat wasn't working so couldn't ask how that could be.
I may buy back tomorrow for the long haul, assuming I can find out the pre-pandemic January price of IAG.
But ye, thanks for your tin foil hat reply. Not everything is a conspiracy theory. Typical Trump supporter.
I'm going off Google Finance and other charts. I'm guessing the share price has been relatively changed on these charts based off of the RI?
On 1st Jan 2021, IAG had around 2B shares in issue with a price around 250p. This gives an MCAP of around £5B
Today IAG has around 5B shares in issue, with a price around 130p. This gives an MCAP of £6.5B
That's a difference of around £1.5B.
IAG recently raised £2B so relatively speaking, with a current SP of 130p, IAG has an MCAP £0.5B lower than pre pandemic levels.
So IAG is is presently only 7% down from pre-pandemic levels.
Is that correct?
lol, are you kidding me?
The SP is irrelevant, it's all about the market capitalization and the MCAP is higher today then it was in Jan, even factoring in the £5B money raise.
I think I am right, RR is now valued higher than it was pre-pandemic.
Loads of people are complaining about HL right now.
One guy over at RR bought the same number of shares 4 time because each time it didn't show up in his portfolio :s
Mine and many others portfolios are showing negative values. I sold the same stocks 3 times.
The HL app and website and royally fubared atm.
If this vaccine helps to get life back to normal, Cineworld and other theater vendors can expect a very busy 2021 with all the movies that have been delayed this past year.
Exciting if this vaccine comes through.
@TheOrms
I was holding IAG, Boohoo and ASOS before today.
Don't ask me how but something told me to sell both Boohoo and ASOS as soon as the vaccine news came out. Managed to get out of both before they went negative thankfully. Both very healthily in profit.
IAG was a tasty recovery play.
Kinda wish I had £10k in Cineworld as a recovery punt as I always thought a vaccine was coming to save a few of these stocks. Wish I had more than £10k overall in travel and leisure :s.
Oh well.
Most travel stocks are close to their pre-covid levels. Rolls Royce as far as I can tell is now above pandemic levels :s
Cineworld on the other hand is still 70% down from year highs without raising any cash (apart from debt) so that's my recovery stock of choice for now. Bring on £1 I say.
Risky but I'm confident holding £30k with £150k in reserve if needed. I think £1 can be reached.