George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
It has emerged that administration of the half-dose started with a mistake. It was then given to a smaller number of participants than those who received two full doses, making the discovery of its greater effectiveness look like a lucky break.
Yet on Tuesday, Moncef Slaoui, the head of Operation Warp Speed, the US government’s funding programme for vaccine development, disclosed that second subgroup was also limited to people aged 55 or below, a demographic with lower risk of developing severe Covid-19.
Markets have taken notice. London-listed shares in AstraZeneca have lost more than 6 per cent since the announcement. By comparison, since trial results from their vaccine were released earlier this month, showing an effectiveness of 90 per cent, shares in Pfizer and BioNTech have gained 6 per cent and 14 per cent respectively; Moderna is up 11 per cent since its vaccine trial data came out, on top of big gains in the run-up to publication.
https://www.ft.com/content/4583fbf8-b47c-4e78-8253-22efcfa4903a
After today inking a deal with at least 80 million doses of it's vaccine with the European Commission, potentially up to 160 million doses. Delivery could begin in Q1 2020. Moderna is expected to announce the final data of their vaccine trial within days.
Officials from the US Operation Warp Speed said should Moderna or Pfizer get emergency approval, they will release 6.4 million doses of the vaccine in an initial distribution and hope to have distributed 40 million by 2021.
"The U.S. Food and Drug Administration will likely grant approval in mid-December for distribution of the vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc and German partner BioNTech and some healthcare workers could start getting shots a day or two later", Dr. Moncef Slaoui, chief scientific adviser for the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed, said on Sunday
"Targeted vaccinations could revive the economy even with delays in widespread adoption", said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse Securities.
“The successful vaccination of seniors and front-line workers could expedite the renormalization process well before herd immunity is achieved,” he said. The S&P 500 may reach 4,050 by the end of 2021, up about 13% from its current level, he estimated.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/moderna-stock-pops-nabs-european-deal-coronavirus-vaccine/
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead/wall-street-week-ahead-covid-19-vaccine-adoption-rates-are-wildcard-for-u-s-stock-rally-idUKKBN2851ML
@indepthwins
Where is your in depth analysis about Cinema occupancy rates?
Let me give you some info...cinemas operate on average occupancy rate of around 20%-30% capacity, making profit on as much as 15%+ occupancy rate. Social distancing doesn't and will never be an issue for cinemas, even if required when vaccines start circulating.
It is a moot point.
Also you didn't get back to me with my counter argument yesterday. What I said was...
"Counter argument time.
Vaccines are likely to start rolling off the shelves in a few weeks time, especially in the US where 75% of Cineworlds sites reside. Yes PfFizer has a storage issue, but Moderna does not. Oxford too are hot on the heals and should start shipments in Jan.
It is likely that by Feb/March, those most vulnerable and at risk will have had their shots as the world plans mass vaccination programs.
I would say by Feb/March there also seems to be a good slate of movies to start showing and who knows, studios may begin to shift their release schedule earlier to deal with the backlog and recoup some of their hard earned.
Cineworld have secured sufficient finding to deal with the scenario of a potential restart of as late as May 2021, a good 6 months from now. This money does not include the US Cares Act money, which should give Cineworld enough head room for several more months after that. By my count, Cineworld will have secured sufficient liquidity to operate for another 10-11 months from now.
If by May 2021, we can get to business as normal, forgo the divi, Cineworld have everything in their arsenal to bring in the revenue, use that to easily service their debts and get back on their feet with the great backlog and future log of movies upcoming.
The only downside I see is problems with the vaccine derailing the above. The SP is reacting accordingly but I see huge upside potential right now. Why don't you? Would love to hear something more intelligent than "Cineworld is drowning in debt"."
Your reply was "Cine SP 259.37p on the 6th Jan 2018, Cine SP 220.7p on the 3rd Jan 2020."
Cat got your tongue? Where is the in-depth response? What's the point if the one liner?
UK/EU:
According to Reuters, the Pfizer vaccine may get UK/EU its approval decision sometime in the next week.
UK regulators and EU regulators the European Medicines Agency have been conducting a rolling review of the Oxford vaccine since 1st October and too may announce the approval of the Oxford vaccine imminently. The NHS has been told to prepare to administer the vaccine from as early as December 1st.
The UK were late to place orders for the Moderna vaccine and therefore cannot expect any doses until early Spring.
US:
The FDA are expected to meet between 8th-10th December to provide an approval decision on both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. The outlook is promising.
Approval of the Oxford vaccine in the US is unclear. Some believe it may not happen at all without more data. The Oxford trial parameters do not match the FDA requirements, for things such as representing minorities, severe cases, previously infected individuals etc.
Some other experts said the F.D.A. was unlikely to authorize the vaccine without more data, especially because fewer than 2,800 participants in the clinical trials received the smaller first dose that yielded such strong results at 90%.
@indepthwins
"Cine SP 259.37p on the 6th Jan 2018, Cine SP 220.7p on the 3rd Jan 2020."
What's your point?
@indepthwins
Cineworld made $129.50 million profit after tax in 2017
Cineworld made $284.30 million profit after tax in 2018
Cineworld made $180.30 million profit after tax in 2019
We have a business that makes hundreds of millions of dollars annually under normal operating conditions, that too after paying divi payments.
The way I see it, if Cineworld can again go back to pre-pandemic conditions and they stop paying the divi for a while, they should be able to weather the storm.
@indepthwins
Counter argument time.
Vaccines are likely to start rolling off the shelves in a few weeks time, especially in the US where 75% of Cineworlds sites reside. Yes PfFizer has a storage issue, but Moderna does not. Oxford too are hot on the heals and should start shipments in Jan.
It is likely that by Feb/March, those most vulnerable and at risk will have had their shots as the world plans mass vaccination programs.
I would say by Feb/March there also seems to be a good slate of movies to start showing and who knows, studios may begin to shift their release schedule earlier to deal with the backlog and recoup some of their hard earned.
Cineworld have secured sufficient finding to deal with the scenario of a potential restart of as late as May 2021, a good 6 months from now. This money does not include the US Cares Act money, which should give Cineworld enough head room for several more months after that. By my count, Cineworld will have secured sufficient liquidity to operate for another 10-11 months from now.
If by May 2021, we can get to business as normal, forgo the divi, Cineworld have everything in their arsenal to bring in the revenue, use that to easily service their debts and get back on their feet with the great backlog and future log of movies upcoming.
The only downside I see is problems with the vaccine derailing the above. The SP is reacting accordingly but I see huge upside potential right now. Why don't you? Would love to hear something more intelligent than "Cineworld is drowning in debt".
£3 a share seems to be a bit of a stretch.
As far as I am aware, pre-Covid, the MCAP was around £12 Billion. Today at 175p a share, the MCAP is £8.7 Billion.
IAG needs to get to needs to hit around £2.45 a share to get to the pre-Covid level.
£3 would make the MCAP £15 Billion, far higher than the pre-covid level. A full 25% higher.
@Joey86
So much gold, I don't know where to stop...
"Get those shares!"
"Bit of a tree shake buy on the dips"
"Buy on the dips 2p coming!"
"Little dick more like, pull back day, wait till next week! Booooooom"
"Looks like an opening bounce! I topped up!"
"A buy at this price! I'm expecting an RNS with Good news! They want your shares!"
Anyone that wants to read soundbites of a ramping noob should check out your posting history.
@Joey86
A quick read of your posting history shows some gems. This is just today...
"Hahahaha... Why would you short this? Another motley Fool reader hahahahahaha"
"US does have a interest in CINE... And let's face it... Quick easy money to 200! Everyone will be buying! Especially the Chinese!"
"Warp speed! Boooooooom!!!!"
"IDW has always been a bitter thick loser... Especially today! Hahahahahaha"
Gosh, whatever would we all do without your amazingly insightful posts. We would be losts without all the "booms" and the "hahahahaha".
If I'm a bell end, then you must be special......needs.
No-one buys at the bottom and sells at the top. Shorterguy has been around for months, so assuming he has been shorting since the beginning, he has likely done a hell of a lot better than you have.
I brag when attacked by rampers. Best way shut you lot up. Let my money lay the smackdown.
The sad thing about this BB is, rampers feel they have a monopoly on sentiment and board content. Like all this board is designed for is holding hands and singing kumbaya, talking up the share. I'm afraid to burst your bubble but this is a public BB. If you think the stock is going up and the stock actually goes down, those negative on the stock called it right and you didn't. That doesn't give you the right to shut them down, to throw insults in a concerted way.
I've been at the receiving end of it a lot, not that I give a toss.
Learn to take it if you want to dish it...hell ye I will brag, as long as you and others talk ****, I'll have the last word, and the profits.
Not that I am a fan of Shorterguy since he talks a lot of **** most of the time, I think it's a bit rich to gloat when most rampers aren't even at break even yet, let alone in profit. It quite funny actually.
Most shorts have likely made a killing on Cineworld. If they close their shorts now and flip their position to buy, they'll have made money on the way up as well as down.
By all means celebrate the great news and the potential turnaround in the stock, but bit early to gloat at someone who is likely in good profits, whilst you're still nursing losses. Don't hate the player hate the game.
Don't bank on any dividend until 2022 at the earliest.
I got 2 mates of mine to invest in Cineworld with me at around 40p. One bought £10k worth of stock, the other £2k.
Both are enjoying the fruits of their labour. Of course they only invested what they could afford to lose/wanted to gamble.
Throw in punt money, like £2k. That way you're covered. Best case, you get to take your significant others for a nice holiday in 2021. Worst case, you lose less than a months salary (assuming you have a decent job which I suspect you do)
Would be nice to hear both success stories and the not so great success stories.
Have had lots of swings personally, but my portfolio is up 85% so far in 2020. Works our to be around £90k profit. My main plays have been Cineworld and Boohoo making the majority of that profit.
Currently holding Cineworld, Barclays, IAG and Royal Dutch Shell.
In 2021, going to be looking at Graphene based companies and renewables/electric based ETFs for growth.
@PrayFor
Are you my broker to know if I have sold?
My posts are negative?... even though they highlight both the good news from today and the risks?
To remind you of my posts, I purchased £30k at a 40p average. This small investment was due to the risks inherent to holding Cineworld whilst still holding some, for the potential. I.e. I hold a small position in case it failed due to liquidity issues or bad vaccine news, but also hold enough to make profit, should it rise on favorable news like vaccines and financing.
That is how I invest. With a level head. Today the price is 54p. Not £1 like rampers claim, but not lower than my buy-in, like derampers claim.
Objective investing. You should try it sometime. I'll let you do the math with where I am at.
Clearly you're in love with this share. Any bit of "realistic" news which isn't favorable is seen as a deramp, and your tin foil hat comes on. Quite sad really. Are you really that insecure that you can't take any rational criticism of your precious Cineworld?
@Bladey
Don't group me into your binary groups. I'm not posting to be negative or positive. I'm posting to be objective, seeing both the pros and the cons, as outlined in my post.
Not here to stroke your ego and only ramp this to make you feel and the rest of you ramper chronies feel better. I'm here to invest and make money, not fall in love with a share. Suggest you try it sometime.
"Hopefully going to 75p at least today."
"£1 by Friday"
"I expected a much bigger rise"
"Survivability assured"
The last one above really takes the cake.
No Cineworld's survival is not assured beyond the next 6-9 months but for now it is. There are a lot of variables which will dictate Cineworlds success....or not, but the potential to bag at this level are real. For that to happen, the following need to line up..........
1. Vaccine approval in the US by December 2020
2. Mass roll out of vaccine starting January 2021
3. Enough people taking the vaccine to illicit herd immunity so that life can return to normal
4. Cinemas to re-open in Q1 2021
5. Studios to begin releasing their movies again in cinemas. Who knows, maybe even push release dates forward.
6. Studios not putting pressure on exhibitors to reduce the theatrical windows/or push further movies to PVOD
Even with all the above, Cineworld has an absolute monster level of debt to service, far beyond anything they have seen in the past. It will take a lot of time before Cineworld sees anything above £1 for a while but bagging at this level can be achieved in the next several months if all the above happens.
With funding due to end imminently, the BOD have come through and managed to secure additional liquidity to hopefully see the business through the Covid-19 pandemic, should the vaccines come through.
The Cineworld base case factors in May 2021 as when Cinemas will be allowed to re-open, a full 5-6 months from now, during which time they expect to burn through $300m ($60m per month) with their sites closed. Today's news also represents 10% dilution, so those saying Mooky won't dilute, just goes to show, Mooky isn't above the market, and stands to lose, just like the rest of us.
The first big Blockbuster due on screens is James Bond in April 2021, 5 months from now, so saying Cineworld are cutting it close is an understatement. There are however some movies coming out in February/May, should cinemas be open to show them, including The King's Man and Morbius, which may bring in good numbers.
I wouldn't say Cineworld have pulled a blinder, because a lot depends on factors outside their control, but I would say they are giving themselves a fighting chance with todays RNS. Cineworld have done their part, their fate now rests in the hands of big pharma.
The news from the Oxford vaccine today, showing 70% efficacy, with a potential to up to 90% efficacy and signs of preventing transmission of the disease, is very positive news.
The UK are more likely to offer the Oxford vaccine and personally, since I am no fan of trying experimental treatments, I would prefer to take the Oxford vaccine than anything from Moderna/Pfizer which works at the DNA/mRNA level.
The US though is likely to move ahead with the Moderna/Pfizer vaccine, if the results remain positive after safety data is issued and the results are peer reviewed positively. With 75% of Cineworlds business in the US, this is where we need to focus our efforts.
All in all, a positive development for Cineworld and hopefully not just delaying the inevitable. For this to be a success, Cineworld need the vaccines to pull through, Covid-19 to be quashed fast, and their doors open with movies and therefore revenue flowing in.
Cineworld have a mountain to climb yet. There are still a lot of headwinds and you won't see £1 per share yet but today's news means we can all take a breather as we step in the right direction.
@Moola
Another post attacking me rather than my content.
Correction "You are notorious for flip flopping your position" should read "You are notorious for seeing the changing winds, and using it to your advantage to make money"
I jest of course.....or do I. I have called this right more or less since April. You can't deny that. I'm curious, what irritates you more? That I was right, or that you are wrong?
If I "ramp" and it goes up and I "deramp" and it goes down? Is that my doing? Is that me calling it right? Was I wrong to change my position? Were you wrong not to? So many questions.
Going back to the topic at hand, unfortunately, I'd give your post more credence if it were true. No-one has been talking about the fact that Cineworlds liquidity is about to end in 1-3 months time and that the US Cares act doesn't come into play until Q2 2021. Most rampers here, such as RS2002 and yourself indicate liquidity is available until September 2021. Ridiculous. Prove it. I seem to have silenced @RS2002. Maybe he was unaware of just how precarious the finances for Cineworld are.
My post was to highlight facts and spark an intelligent discussion. I of course expected posts attacking my person, rather than my content. Yours included.