The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
No side track mate - they have said as much.
No probs mate.
This is bubbling away at the moment. The rise will come IMHO. The SP has been battered unforgivingly but it is purely because of the IIs and traders.
Read the RNS's, research the share, think whether the news warrants such as drop (look at MATD for comparison of a duster RNS).
BP are involved here in terms of the Junior Loan Note Facility. Baker Hughs have opted to take payment from first oil - these are not mickey mouse companies and there must be something in the geology, the management and the prospects going forward that have made them do this and given them the confidence to do so.
It is painful to see the SP at these levels but at some point the tide will turn.
Next drill next week IMHO.
If they were buys the SP would have ticked up - simple. Instead it has not.
In any case we have a decent amount of trades (buys and sells) going through and if we do get any buys of that volume going forward this will rise sharply.
Yes mate but two of them have a "-" (minus) figure next to them so are reversed / therefore cancel the other two 100K buys.
A trade of 100K appeared and then straight after a -100K trade appeared which usually means the trade was not placed / reversed.
The trades were reversed.
Lets keep it real please. Nonsense ramping will not help here.
For the first time in a week this now seems to be driven by the buying and selling volume appearing on L2 - this to me feels like any large background seller / II is now done and the SP should rise and fall on normal supply and demand.
We have a MCAP of £25M and have two more drills in an area where there are a number of existing discoveries and oil fields. One of these is supposedly an appraisal well (albiet the CoS may need to be revised down from 70% depending on what the VSP throws up) and the other is adjacent to Tain.
This has been battered down by II's and then traders at 30p+ who didnt get the bounce because of said II's. Look at MATD for example - a history of dusters, another one today and SP is off by only 25%....that is what should've happened hear if it hadnt been for II's.
At these levels I think there is a risk / reward on offer.
I think we may get news by end of this week / early next at the latest in terms of the next drill. Good luck all
Yes but it is now purely down to traders it would seem (who may be bailing again).
I think they are working on VSP and in the process of deciding where to drill next. All pretty fluid at the moment but expecting to hear more by end of this week early next at the very latest (as by that point next well location will be known).
Personally think they are trying to get approvals for Serenity sorted if they can as that would make sense but if they drill A3 then at least that would show confidence in that.
Still all to play for here and its just a matter of when the tide will turn.
If they wanted to sell more they surely would have given the volumes!! Perhaps their strategy was to get below 11%. I3E Q&A also mentioned continued support of II's so is corroborated by the RNS.
Think they may be done for the time being. Lets get this back to realistic levels given 2 more drills and a ridiculous MCAP of circa £25M!
The RNS could come at any point in the day so no counting chickens!
This does have to turn at some point though!
I didn’t know Lombard were selling out the entire holding.
Wow. How did you find this out? Lots of us lesser mortals have been trying to find out but you must have some amazing sources mate.
I wonder what I3E meant when they said they had institutional support in their Friday Q&A?
There are two institutions selling as far as we know.
Miton has been selling a variety of shares due to a merger. They may have decided to be more aggressive post result but their selling is across a number of shares.
As for Lombard, they probably are reducing risk but have also been selling for months if you look at the holdings RNSs. It is difficult to know if they will sell down to zero but for them it will also be about risk management for their clients.
IIs will of course be more risk averse than retail investors but when they stop we should see a decent reversal.
Personally I’m expecting a few more days of this crap before we see a change in direction for the share price but it all depends on what the company says in its next RNS (tomorrow?)
Thank you Alex.
It now depends on how much Lombard decide to sell...and that is anybody’s guess but conversely there has been plenty of appetite by retail. Just over 10 million shares left at last count...if they want out completely then may take a few more days but when they stop normal demand and supply conditions should hopefully resume.
Surely if he had done his research he’d know that Miton are apparently selling out of a lot of companies due to their merger? If not then why hasn’t he done his research and that invalidates his argument somewhat! The only thing that may have happened is that the RNS caused them to sell more aggressively which is why the sp crashed.
As for Lombard....is it them or their discretionary clients selling down?
Yes they are and there is a vast difference between a company lying and making a mistake - the latter being what I think has happened here so to suggest intentionally lying is a big jump and a serious accusation.
It’s oil and gas - things can go wrong unfortunately.
But look at the calibre of the BoD and where they have worked and their experience. The CEO himself comes from and O&G as well as a banking background and has worked for the likes of Total....if he was intentionally lying his career would be over!
At one point the BoD has 40% of shares but after dilution it became 20%. They didn’t take salaries for ages. These don’t appear to be the actions of people out to mislead.
Baker Hughs is not charging I3E for their services and taking payment from first oil...this is a respectable international company and they must have seen something to give them such confidence?
The author at SP is now coming across as a dog with a bone and or someone with an axe to grind purely for the sake of it.
I haven’t read the SP article but please do enlighten us if you can.
The Q&A email is here https://twitter.com/belcourtoi/status/1172540871218204673?s=21
Did you receive the Q&A from Camarco?
I am not pinning too much on the VSP in terms of this well. More interested in what it means for their models and drills going forward. All shall be revealed next week (as well as spud for next well).
That's why I said it changes so quick. This is not being driven by normal demand and supply unfortunately as if it were we would be sat nearer 40p given all the buying volume information that is available to us mere PI's.
Seller is aggressive - hopefully this means they are nearly out in terms of whatever they wanted to sell so are happy to take a lower price. Once they are done we should see a good recovery.
5 V 1 on L2....looks poised to bounce but L2 changes so quick with this...