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Thank you mate. So it's quite possible that there may be a placing of some sort ahead of the drills? Not trying to scare monger but simply trying to understand the companies position.
Thank you for this mate.
I have previously been invested here but must admit sold out a while back. What is the cash position of the company? Are they fully funded for drills or will they require financing / a placing of some sort?
Well, if someone has held since 2013 where the SP did not move above 30p and not sold since (even when the SP was 60p+) and they believe the share is crap despite all the recent developments with Power China etc then perhaps now is the time to sell and move on - take the 30% odd hit and get out is my advice. No point remaining invested in a share you don't believe in.
Can’t see why?
In any case this now has a technical but rating according to British Bulls....let’s see what transpires over the coming days and weeks.
Personally I think there will be something over the coming days or weeks.
It is the proposal to the GOB that will be the key catalyst here and it really could come at any time.
It was due in February this year but I think was delayed as power China more than likely had more to add to it.
In July, at the time of the MOU with NFC we were told it is still being worked on...that was over two months ago and we are now several months from the initial deadline.
Add to this the agreement with DGI recently. I think the proposal is complete and will be submitted shortly.
I think they have been lining their ducks up and DGI will help push this on a domestic level to avoid it looking like “foreigners railroading the GOB” and making the project more palatable.
The submission to GOB is imminent in my opinion and thereafter the lobbying will begin in earnest!
True...but hopefully the SP has bottomed out here.
News flow wise I hope we get something in the coming weeks as submission to GOB is long long overdue.
Historically GCM has always bounced well from this area....and funnily enough such bounces have more often than not coincided with some sort of news.
Next week will be telling and if the buying continues something is definitely incoming...
This was well oversold and even on a technical basis is due a turn around.
Its been 2.5 months since the last update re a MOU and both GCM and the Chinese have had plenty of time to firm up the submission to the GOB. If it's one thing we can rely on the Chinese for it's to make sure that things are done in an efficient and timely manner.
I would hope that the submission to the GOB is almost upon us and should hopefully happen over the coming days / weeks. After that it will all be down to how much pressure the Chinese can exert....and if this is made part of the One Road, One Belt initiative then this really will rocket up as GOB wont be able to ignore it (otherwise they will risk Billions in investment!).
Plus no more messing around edge of boundaries or trying to locate optimal production well location.
They will be going for the sweet spot here!
This is adjacent to the Tain discovery that RRE has - it has the potential to be game changing.
The permit was requested about a week and a half ago I think - we should get it next week IMHO (all depends on whether they can ask OGA to fast track).
Yes and the mcap given two further drills in uk waters both in close proximity to or in existing discoveries and oil producing fields is ridiculous!
We seem to have orders being filled at this level - delayed 100k buy just come through...
Completely agree.
They covered I3E energy today.
Basic message is there is value at these levels as company is drilling in established oil producing area.
Alan Green sticking with it and says is backed up by data. He made money from 22p - £1.30 so thinks it could have a good run from these levels and is supported by BH taking payment from first oil.
Very good risk / reward from here.
I got the Q&A and yes it was from Camarco who liaised with the BoD over it.
If you have any questions the best thing to do is to call the number at the bottom of each RNS. You will at least be able to speak to someone even if they can’t always answer your questions.
I second that BBN.
It now all boils down to the next two drills and each will have its own merit for example:
S1 - completely unrelated so CoS should remain unchanged but upside is MASSIVE
A3 - shows that they are confident in what they have found from VSP and their data reinterpretation, upside not as much as S1 but still should see SP well above the level it was before L2.
Everyone is now on the sidelines until further clarity....over to the BoD....
This is true BBN - it is about the next two wells which could easily reverse the falls from last week and then some.
It is why the risk v reward is far greater now than it was prior to L2 well. Confidence has been shaken but it is by no means over and there is an independent CPR to validate much of what the BoD was thinking. They got it wrong this well, they will take a step back, re-analyse and then move forward. Either way the fall has been over done and when we get some sense of direction the move up should be just as swift as the move down was!
I am by no means an expert mate.
However, we are where we are purely because:
1. We had II's selling down which exacerbated the fall (Miton however have been selling a number of their holdings across the board due to a merger)
2. We had day traders enter looking for a bounce from 30p which didnt materialise due to the above so they took a loss and bailed out causing a further decline.
Since this we have had Lombard reduce by only 180K odd shares when volumes were in the millions so one could deduce they are no longer selling down. We now have a situation where normal trading based on buys and sells might resume at a time when the company still has two drills in an area in UK waters where existing discoveries exist.
There is still all to play for IMHO.
Depends on what well they drill next mate both currently have a 70% CoS but this will probably be revised downwards for A3 and possibly Serenity depending on data. Let's assume its revised to even 50%.
Serenity is worth approx. £2 depending on size of discovery.
A3 is worth approx. 80p I think.
Downside if they don't hit maybe another 50% of SP...upside is multiples. Hence why Risk v Reward could be attractive and there is still very much all to play for here. Really depends on what the VSP data throws up and where they decide to drill next. My hope is that it is Serenity due to the sheer upside but if they go ahead for A3 it would demonstrate confidence in the data and of getting it right.
It may very well still be a gamble but the upside is greater than the downside - especially given that we are oversold and have been battered down by II's. A sense of normality however in terms of normal supply / demand trades is slowly starting to resume...fingers crossed.
It was in the Q&A they sent out on Friday:
2. Why not sidetrack the well?
A. As announced, the plan is to plug and abandon the well following the completion of logging activity. The company will integrate and interpret the data that is has received from the well before considering the next steps over this area of Liberator.
Reading the above, if they were going to sidetrack we would've known about it by now. On to next well, next week.