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I have no doubt it will bounce mate - the question is from where!! lol.
Hopefully the bottom is found soon here. Drilling next week and still very much all to play for!
They have a shed load of shares to shift from Miton and Lombard unfortunately.
Maybe that’s what has happened hence the relentless selling? Can’t think of any other reason
Even if that were the case Gary, from what the interview said, they impact of this is likely to be 8 MMbbls max (out of 22 MMbbls). Doesn't warrant the fall off a cliff we have seen with the SP and once II's and traders that were hoping for a bounce are out we should stabilise and hopefully move to a move reasonable valuation given next two drills.
MCAP of £25M is ridiculous IMHO.
This well was always going to be P&A. The drill was to determine the best place for the production well and this drill has resulted in them re-evaluating the location for the production well.
Lombard are also selling though mate - the holdings RNS's show it. They seem to dispose of a few mill at a time so if they are selling then next RNS may have them at around 7 - 8% but who knows. There are clearly sellers otherwise the SP wouldn't be at these levels in the face of such big buying
Making SP predictions as it stands is silly IMHO - it is out of normal PI's control and not subject to normal supply and demand until the II's have finished.
Personally I would like to see it bottom out first before any bounce so a close of even or in the 28's would suit me just fine.
Thank you Alex - is that where you plan on closing your short? :)
Can you let us know where you got that figure from please mate?
And as for price...I think it will stay around these levels. However it depends on what they say about results of VSP etc.
In one sense it makes sense to drill serenity if data analysis gives them reason to adjust their models...it would be stupid if they didn’t as serenity is completely independent.
Completely agree.
Serenity next. Expecting it to spud midweek next week.
Charts will be useless against this for the time being until the sellers stop mate.
I think you are right there to a degree although the other two prospects are completely independent and are not designed to determine best spot for production well or to test the extent of boundaries etc etc (as per the pilot well). If you mean that there is a question of competence here then perhaps so but then the same could be true of all O&G cos in that nothing is ever guaranteed and sometimes data doesn't always deliver what is hoped. The positive is they now have more data to get a better understanding.
This is now about sentiment and yes its on its knees at the moment and is compounded by the II seller (Miton are selling nearly all shares so not concerned by them and Lombard have been reducing over many months so will be interesting to see where they stop).
All I'm saying is that it is by no means over and when traders / IIs stop selling and this finds a base then we will hopefully get some normality and sensibility in terms of price when matched against RvR without it being skewed by the aforementioned.
Off the top of my head, the maximum impact from this result would be 8 MMbls (from a figure of around 22 MMBls) - however the company have already said they don't expect the reduction to be that much so lets assume a reduction of say 5 - 6 MMbls. That takes the figure down from 22 to 17. It doesn't warrant the current fall at all - which seems to be driven by Miton (nearly out) and Lombard (reducing risk which they have done consistently over the last few months).
The company are still targeting 42 contingent and 90 MMbbls prospective resources in A3 Appraisal and circa 200mmbbls in Serenity. Both are affected by this result.
If you list to the interview the company have stated the only impact of this result is where to drill the production well - all else remains unchanged...especially the upside!
It is difficult to watch this at these levels but all is not lost and indeed the next drill should hopefully hit as they are not testing boundaries but hopefully going for the sweet spot so to speak.
Fingers crossed right now as it is all dependent on when the II's finish (and at least seems to be almost done).
I hope so.
Apparently an interview / some PR are being worked on right now to provide some more information on the drill and next steps.
I've been told it should be out either later today or tomorrow at the latest.
It will probably come when the total sell order has been complete.
It's obviously an II and it is them that are suppressing the price
approx. 28 - 30 days per well according to company...could be slightly longer or shorter depending on weather conditions imho
We still have sellers (probably some II along with traders) unfortunately otherwise this would be well in the 60s.
The MCAP is absolutely ridiculous given the risk v reward here. L2 valuation upon success is around £3 per share!
Cool!
I agree with you there mate! Fingers crossed that this happens in the next couple of trading days!