Member Info for investor33

Soco were achieving 13 bopd on average from their 27 wells in block 19. And Pc bought it for around $145m in today's money.

Abzzba ; it may be interesting to add in your question an average of the oil price over X number of recent years ( maybe the last 3 ? ) plus the current oil price.

Using Proquo's analogy, they rate a restaurant at zero stars, then promptly frequent it for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

And then they pitch a tent and camp outside for the night as well.

And all whilst rating the restaurant as total rubbish ! Lol.

Abzzba ; absolutely. I noticed that you told Wigster to post on here what his question was. Then it all became very obvious what he was up to. He couldn't have phrased the question in a more negative manner, and with no mention of the 33m to 58m barrels. And also stating that 160 bopd is a definitive maximum for H1 when we don't know that yet.

What are your thoughts on the sandscreens by the way ? I'm not sure what might be happening with these.

And Wigster needs to be added to that list by the way. He's a bit more subtle about how he goes about things, but the final straw for me was when he put biased garbage into an AI bot in order to give output which valued block 20 as low as possible. He didn't even mention Leap Energy's assessment of 33m to 58m barrels, which is probably the most important bit of info of all to have mentioned. He probably has no idea who Leap Energy are.

"Some appear to think the oil price is irrelevant, i can only assume these people are halfwits."

Some thought that the granting of the 25 year special purpose status was unimportant too.

And some valued Heron/block 20 based on 60 cents or 45p per barrel.

If I was employing people to bash a company, I would have made sure that they could at least sound convincing and not come over as utter half wits.

Master - do you really think that a JV was likely before they ever had the local access consent and the 25 year licence was granted designating it as special purpose land ?

IMO it only became feasible once the 25 year licence was granted earlier this year.

Hamm ; " RPT – hopefully this time MB genuinely sticks to what he’s been saying: no placing, no major spending on exploration until the JV is finalised. Last time, he let a lot of us down by doing the opposite—saying one thing and then suddenly raising funds anyway."

It was annoying. MB said those things in order to keep the share price at higher levels so that the raise could happen. That's my black mark against him.

Met1's in an interesting situation right now by way of comparison. They did a 10-1 consolidation, and issued about 750m 2p warrants to be exercised within 6 months. They raised 5m this way. However, they did not increase the exercise price from 2p to 20p in line with the consolidation.

So they now have an overhang of around 650m warrants still to be exercised at 2p.

The share price is now moving around in a total rollercoaster. If you can read charts then I guess with good timing it's a trader's dream.

Met1 wont make any money for a long time most likely - it's an example of how traders pile into resource stocks before they make any money and spike the price around up and down all over the place. Early stage resource stock micro caps on AIM are not really suitable for long term investors.

" I also reason that Heron/block 20 will not be sold for less than $100m " I meant, not Heron 1.

Hamm ; like I keep saying - a raise need not be on the open market even if it were to happen.

I think the most likely thing that will happen is that either a JV or a buyout of the field will be announced - so a sale of some assets, not the company.

Hamm ; I wasn't one of the smart ones unfortunately, so I have no other option other than to wait. My average is around 3p. There's no way that I'm selling up right now, or even selling a portion of my holding even. We live and learn - I am trading Met1 from time to time, with some success so far. I have been in and out within 5 days max.

I work on the principle that an independent, highly specialised company, Leap Energy has estimated that block 20 has 33 to 58m barrels of oil under the ground. I also reason that Heron 1 will not be sold for less than $100m, giving a share price of 6p. So in that worst case scenario I would double my money. However, I think that it is worth a lot more than $100m , so I feel we have a degree of security right now regardless of the current share price. I can't decide whether a JV or a buyout of the field would be best - what I do know for certain is that after the results of Heron 2 the company should not ever contemplate going it alone.

I have to admit that if a JV is announced and we get a sudden sharp price surge. then I may have to think about heavily top slicing, as IMO a rapid uplift in a share price always results in some kind of strong pullback. What I absolutely would not do is get over excited and then start jumping straight in on what might turn out to be a bit of a spike. If you do decide to jump in then always wait for the pullback as the much safer option. Imagine those people who recently got over excited with the hype, bought Met1 right at the top of the 55p spike, and then found 3 weeks later that the share price was 7p......

Hamm ; the winners up to now have been people like ftsemajorgeneral, who wisely realised that there is extreme volatility in the share price of resource explorers in their early stages, prior to revenue being generated. Look at Met 1 recently - their share price is a complete rollercoaster right now. They are years away from earning any income most likely.

Frankly, the smart people up to now have been focused mainly on the price action, and have bought on ( typically ) the winter lows of around 1.5p to 2.5p and then sold at anything between 5p to 10p during the spikes, like ftsemajorgeneral has done. I reckon someone starting with say 25k back in 2019 could have made 150k or more through doing just that. For example, someone could have bought in on the Feb 2023 raise at 2.5p and then sold at 7p in May 23, just a few weeks later. Most LTHs though just stuck their money in and then did nothing. If some of us did that then we just have to admit that we weren't very smart about how we went about things - microcaps are not like mid or large caps.

I think all that's changed now though. The share price action has been much more muted since a year ago. The last big green bullish candle was in late May last year when the share price hit just over 5p.

Hamm ; I wish people could understand that a raise doesn't have to be done on the open market. Petrovis could simply increase their stake in the company at the current share price. Any further dilution is then balanced out by the commercial opportunities created through funds being raised. And Petrovis may want a bigger stake for when it comes to shareholders having to vote later on.

However, I think it would be very ill advised for the company to try and go it alone. Heron 2 may have been a blessing in disguise in this respect.

Alan55 ; you sound like yet another one who has never looked at a chart. There have been multiple times when someone buying between 2p to 4p could have made a really decent profit. Like when the share price hit 10p a few years ago, or 7p back in 2023. Just look at a chart and prove it to yourself.

When there was the raise at 2.5p in late Feb 2023, it hit 7p just a few weeks later in early May of that year.

Any investor with an average of as high as 4.8p has had an opportunity to get out at least breakeven in every one of the last 10 years - and that includes the covid year when the borders were shut and nothing happening.

" 27 wells " - predictive text !

And the perspective that SOCO were only extracting 350 bopd from 27 weeks when they sold the neighbouring block to PC in 2005 always seems to be forgotten about for some reason. That was an average of 13 bopd from each well - yet people talk about what may turn out to be just an initial flow from H1 of 160 bopd as being some kind of disaster. Perspective matters.

If someone was going to bail having held for a long time, I'm amazed that they didn't do it during COVID, with the borders shut, money running out fast and with no legal access to block 20 in place. And with no real idea of whether it might ever be granted for that matter. If it was ever going to go bust then it would have happened then.

And they are not ever likely to do an open market raise at this kind of price level. And if they did it would dilute Petrovis' 200k or so shares, not to mention Mike Buck's shares.

It is indeed an ironic contradiction in terms to declare a stock to be pretty much worthless, and then subsequently devote every minute of every day talking about it. Quite funny really.