Member Info for investor33

RealPro ; "RSI heavily oversold btw, if you're interested."

I am. If there's one major lesson I've learnt since first getting involved with AIM microcaps way back in 2019 it is that the price action, as revealed visually through charts/TA,matters more than just about anything. Right now we are back at the support level which it hit earlier in the year.

What the negs don't realise when frequently mocking shareholders about the current share price is that it is actually a sign that a raise is not happening.

In previous years when a raise was inevitable in the first half of the year, the share price would suddenly get pumped up like a balloon by the MMs. And especially straight after some positive news - this happened straight after the exploitation licence was granted in 2019 and again straight after the local access was granted last year. Then raises happened straight after.

This is the reason why in previous years there has always been a sudden sharp uplift in the share price in the fist few months of the year - it hit 5p in may last year, and why it has been so flat so far this year. It's actually because a raise is very likely not happening.

There's probably nothing better for the MMs to read on here than another LTH talking about capitulating and giving up their shares. "More very cheap shares for us at this level. "

It's held at this level because it creates the best buying liquidity for them.

Master ; the MMs are the enemy to a large extent with these microcaps. They run their own trading desks, and are far from being neutrals working strictly according to market forces, so as to balance supply and demand.

Look at today - vastly more buys than sells, yet the bid down.

This year the share price has bounced around in a range, with the resistance being 2.3p, which it has hit three times and then fallen back each time. From a low of 1.2p that's nearly a 100% uplift, so they don't need a soaring share price to make good money as PIs usually do.

Master ; the MMs are the enemy to a large extent with these microcaps. They run their own trading desks, and are far from being neutrals working strictly according to market forces, so as to balance supply and demand.

Look at today - vastly more buys than sells, yet the bid down.

This year the share price has bounced around in a range, with the resistance being 2.3p, which it has hit three times and then fallen back each time. From a low of 1.2p that's nearly a 100% uplift, so they don't need a soaring share price to make good money as PIs usually do.

Dazzer : we are at the support level from earlier in the year.

We've also hit the 2.3p resistance level three times this year already. IMO we are simply in a range right now and have been all year so far.

The share price was also 2.5p in 2016 before it began a sudden spike up to 38p by early 2017.

Far more buys than sells today, however the MMs have a stranglehold on what they decide to do with the share price. It's a very corrupt exchange unfortunately.

NicetoMichu : a raise not on the open market certainly matters to the bashers judging by the nervous twitches which they suddenly seem to develop when the possibility is touted...lol.

Anyway, we are in a 1.2p to 2.3p range at the moment - have been all year actually. three times it's bounced down from the 2.3pish resistance level so far this year. As ever - the wider price action context is there to read and note for those who keep their eyes open.

This range suits the MMs right now - that's why we are in it.

NicetoMichu ; have you ever considered that even if that was a raise ( unlikely ) then it doesn't have to be done on the open market ?

Petrovis could simply up their stake at the current price level, which would nicely bring down their average.

I very very much doubt that they would raise on the open market at historical lows.

Kevinround ; " Don’t worry China will be ok, they have Petro mated producing 160 bpd that will solve the issue…."

Maybe learn how to spell " Petro Matad " correctly ?

Anyway, China has done pretty well from Soco's block 19 which when they bought it was producing 350 bopd from 27 wells. That was 13 bopd on average from each well....Maybe find out how much oil has been extracted in the last 20 years from block 19 ?

WOS vanished for a month straight after the last raise as well. I never thought he was genuine. And so childish as well.

I suspect that the MMs and their trading desks have their ' agents ' on here ....

That Chatgpt answer by the way seemingly hasn't factored in the 60% higher average price of oil for 2022,23 and 24 compared to 2002, 2003 and 2004.

So the conservative figure of $154m for 33m barrels would no doubt have to be significantly higher than this had it been factored in.

You're welcome RealPro.

And absolutely there is a massive disconnect !

Very likely Gravy !

Interesting when I was collecting data, to find that the Soco sale was on 1st April 2005 ( April Fool's Day ! ) so they would have been going mainly on the oil price average for the immediate few years just prior to the sale most likely.

The average oil price for 2002, 2003 and 2004 was $32, or $55 in today's money, when factoring in inflation.

The average price of oil for 2022, 2023 and 2024 has been $87 - so about 60% higher than the adjusted value of oil for 2002-2004.

And the answer ;

" Production rate:

Your field's daily production of 160 barrels per day is higher than the neighboring field's 13 barrels per day per well. Given that the neighboring field had 27 wells, your field's 2 wells are performing significantly better (160/13 per well). However, to stay conservative, we won’t drastically inflate the price just based on this higher initial production, as it could taper off over time.

Adjusting based on production:

The production rate in your field is strong, but with fewer wells and initial production, we’ll estimate the value closer to the lower-end reserves (33 million barrels).

Final Estimate:

For a 33 million barrel field, the estimated sale price would be around $154 million.

For a 60 million barrel field, the estimated sale price could go up to around $280 million.

This price range is based on the assumptions above, where the neighboring field had 30 million barrels and was sold for $140 million adjusted for inflation, along with considering the production difference. "

Tweaked the question so as to better phrase it ;

" Calculate an estimated sale price of an onshore oilfield with competent person report estimating 33 million barrels of recoverable oil and possibly up to 60 million barrels with new drilling techniques. The bordering oil field of a similar size was sold in April 2005 to PetroChina for $93,000,000 which would be worth about $140,000,000 in today's money. This field which was sold had 27 wells, producing an average of 13 barrels of oil per day. The field you are estimating for has so far just two wells producing initially 160 barrels of oil per day. The average price of a barrel of oil for the three years 2002 to 2024 has been 87 Dollars per barrel. "

And the answer ;

 

"With successful drilling and new techniques, the price could escalate towards $200 million or more.

Conclusion

Conservative Sale Estimate (33 million barrels): Approximately $140 million.

Optimistic Sale Estimate (60 million barrels): Likely in the range of $200 million to $250 million, assuming rapid development and high production rates."

I don't feel that this works very well - as the reference to Soco's wells producing 350 bopd from 27 wells seems to confuse it, and it's only valued the oil at just over $1 per barrel for some reason.

So this is the question I asked Chatgpt ;

" Calculate an estimated sale price of an onshore oilfield with competent person report estimating 33 million barrels of recoverable oil and possibly up to 60 million barrels with new drilling techniques. The bordering oil field of a similar size was sold in April 2005 to PetroChina for $93m which would be worth about $140 in today's money. This field which was sold had 27 wells, producing an average of 13 barrels of oil per day. The field you are estimating for has so far just two wells producing initially 160 barrels of oil per day. The average price of oil for the three years 2002 to 2004 was $32 which would be about $55 in 2025 monetary values. The average price of oil for the three years 2002 to 2024 has been 87 Dollars per barrel. "

The-Lockie ; just filter the illiterate W****r.

From each of their 27 wells I meant. Just 13 bopd on average for each of them.

Yet some people scream blue murder about the 160 bopd INITIALLY from H1.