Member Info for investor33

Thanks.

It all depends on the LP really. As we lead up to the June spud then we may get another spike followed by another rapid descent if the LP is not yet sorted. This will continue to be an extremely volatile share until the company actually brings in revenue - like I said, it's been in ideal one to trade, rather than one for taking a long-term view. The MMs will be extremely aware of how despondency sets in following another false dawn/price spike so it's been perfect for them to trade. They must have made a lot of money these last few years. It's very hard for many to keep taking pain when the price just about halves in the space of less than a month.

It's also possible that one or two people on here are helping the MMs in their accumulation/distribution game....

By the way - is there no edit function on here to correct typos ? Odd if there isn't.

I'm not sure that people on here understand the extent of the MM manipulation - RNS releases are only part of the story, and anyway the MMs take advantage of these to fill their boots. My understanding is that the MMs trade their own accounts as well - they don't just 'make a market. ' Has anybody wondered why on some days there are more buys than sells, and yet still the share price is down 2 or 3% ? I think that was the case yesterday.

I've got 888,000 Shares bought at an average of 4.10 P and frankly I'm regretting not just trading the share. 3 or 4 times I could have taken a decent profit and then bought back in much lower down. 3 weeks or so ago I could have taken a £25k profit and then bought in at what is now a price below my previous average.

What I am saying is that without tangible progress towards MATD becoming revenue creating - just lots of false dawns - this has been an ideal share to trade for several years now. There have been lots of spikes on an RNS release followed by just as dramatic a collapse in the share price. This has been tyhe moist recent one. Plus some raises thrown in there as well.

Going back to the MMs - this share has been ideal for them to trade. They will accumulate at low prices, and then distribute at the top - typically on a spike caused by an RNS. The founder of volume spread analysis software always said that paying too much attention to news can be damaging to your wealth. Once the MMs trading their own accounts have distributed their holdings following a sudden spike, they typically then just let it drop like a stone. This way they panic weakholders into selling up, and then set about hoovering up all those shares in their accumulation phase. Then just rinse and repeat, as we have been seeing for years now.

The trouble is that people like me who consider themselves to be LT holders get locked in through the FOMO of the LP suddenly being granted, so they have to put up with the stress of the price action moving around like crazy. And look at how the mood on a forum like this suddenly changes when the price crashes for the umpteenth time after a spike.

The only thing that will change this situation is MATD becoming a producer rather than an explorer - until then it's just an ideal share to trade for both the MMs with their own accounts and for private traders.

I first bought at about 7p in mid 2019 with no oil discovered, no EL and with no funding if oil was found.
I eventually averaged down to 5.5p but was then stupidly caught out through buying £4,500 at 8p when the EL news broke - turns out that I should have done the exact opposite and sold that amount. Since then I have bought the same amount at just under 3.5p so I have averaged it down again. I will hang on to see whether this holds at 3p before topping up again. Compared to the risk that I took on when buying at 7p in 2019 this is a no-brainer. It's inevitable that sooner or later the share price will reach double figures. - I mean it once reached £1.80 as purely a speculative oil explorer....

I got my letter from HL yesterday offering me the enticing prospect of purchasing 15,658 shares ' at a fixed price of 3.5p ' for the sum of £548.03. I spent the whole night tossing and turning on my bed whilst I agonised over whether to take up this amazing offer. Oh, hang on a minute, why not just buy an unlimited no of shares at the 3p mark......

Currently a 21m market cap - isn't that a bit of a joke with the licence and now the funding in the bag to get started, albeit next year most likely ? What do people realistically think the market cap should be once Heron starts ?

3littlepigs - well done for picking some up at 2.5. I got some at that price as well, but obviously not as many as I would like now. ! I've been averaging down as well - I'm sure that's the way to go.

JAdam is spot on with his remarks, and the people on here who ignore the negative cynics will reap their rewards in the next year.

As others have said, this degree of dilution is annoying ( though we have just had the chance to buy in at beneath the placing price ) however it's far better this way than a lousy JV, with someone jumping in last minute to reap the rewards without any of the risk of the last 10 years, and at the expense of long terms shareholders. Any JV would have been a bad deal, as the other party would have known that PM was a captive audience as basically skint.

What a load of hot air..it reached £2 in 2011 without discovering oil, without an EL and without funding to get started !

Well, at least I can take some satisfaction at having just topped up at below the placing price.

Someone said that those who bought in at 10p in the last placing in 2018 have financed the last few years of exploration, and I think that's fair enough. I would be interested to know though whether Mike Buck offloaded any shares straight after the RNS announcement on 07/07. If he held on and didn't sell then that looks much better IMO. I first bought in before oil had even been discovered, so compared to the outlook back then it's a massively better situation to be in. Don't forget that PM hit £2 in early 2011....there will be a few millionaires on here if that happens again.

Spainish,

Yes, I am an investor, but not as a full time profession. I first bought some shares before oil had even been discovered, and then again before the EL was granted, so as far as I'm concerned the derisking is immense compared to the situation before the latest RNS came out, and cetainly before oil had even been discovered. I remember when it was discovered that there was a price spike back then, followed by lots of subsequent gloom as the price retreated from 7p or so back to as low as 2p. - lots of talk then about how the Mongolian government were trying to screw PM, the EL would never be issued and so on.

What I was specifically talking about however was why you get these sudden price spikes on ' good news .' Are you saying that the price shot up to nearly 9p and then fell about 40% over the next few days because buyers were initially thrilled by the news, but then the kind of issues which you have mentioned suddenly came to the forefront of their minds and they started ditching the stock in droves ? Or are the sudden price spikes pure MM manipulation using ' good news ' to carry off a well tried and tested sleight of hand ? A lot of people on here still seem to think that AIM prioces work strictly according to supply and demand, when in fact very thinly traded stocks are highly volatile because MMs can play around with the price action. What you saw last Wednesday was a sucker's rally - the opposite of a test, whereby the price is suddenly driven down sharply and then back up again sharply in order to panic weakholders out of their positions, and thereby remove selling pressure so that MMS can offload at higher prices without having a wave of selling going against them as the price moves up. On bar charts for indices and even for blue chiips you can see these spikes at the top and the bottom, and it's caused by MM manipulation of the price. With AIM this effect is far greater, and the volatility caused by the price action can be huge when news breaks - good or bad.

As regards the long term outlook as an investor, I am pretty confident that in a year or so PM will be at between 20p to 30p, yet up to that time you will see a few more of these spikes, which are a quick money making ploys by the MMs. The long term outlook does depend on the fundamentals, but don't confuse these short term spikes on RNS releases as being the result of long term sentiment - they are caused by FOMO and subsequent price manipulation by the MMs to catch stops and shake out those who jumped feet first into a suckers rally on the release of ' good news. '

The MMs are very aware of the pyschology of FOMO ( Fear Of Missing Out ) when an RNS comes out with positive news. - people get excited and don't pause too much to think in the buying frenzy. They also rely on being able to see where the stops are - imagine if you are a MM and can see a large cluster of stops in more or less the same place which are likely to make you money if you can hit them - it's a red rag to a bull. Some people probably take the same approach as they would the FTSE 100 shares rather than thinly traded AIM shares, so they go ahead and place stops like they would if they were buying BP or BHP. This is a receipe for disaster when buying on news after an RNS release. Once they have taken a paper loss or had their stop hit with a 20% loss they then start scrabbling around trying to understand what happened to them through speculating on forums like this about the fundamentals - the refinery is going to be delayed etc etc....

Dozzawba - it's the kind of negative and misinformed opinion you often read on here which helps the MMs in the game which they play. Anybody who bought at say nearly 9p is probably stressed out now with a fall of about 40% in a week. They are the weakholders who the MMs hope to be able to shake out if their stops haven't been hit already - which is what they want in order to accumulate cheap shares at bargain prices. When you get people on forums like this making scaremongering comments about this that and the other it really helps the MMs achieve what they want - look at all the negative comments that were made about the issuance of the EL. Now it' sthe completion of the refinery.

No, it's not rocket science to know why - it just involves understanding how MMs manipulate thinly traded AIM stocks. Imagine if you are a car dealer and can sell a £20,000 brand new car to a punter. He drives it 100 miles and a few days later the dealer buys it back from him for 35% less - so for £ 13,000. That's pretty good business. Likewise if an RNS news hits and the MMS ramp the price up to nearly 9p, and a few days later it is 5.5p then there's a good chance that all those who bought into the sucker's rally at say 8 or 9p will have set stop losses at say 5 or 6p. So the MMs drop the price like a stone in order to panic and shake out the weakholders who bought into the price spike, to hit the numerous stops ( which they can see ) and to thereby to hoover up cheap shares in a process called accumulation. Rinse and repeat and make a lot of money. As Tom Williams used to say - buying on news can seriously damage your wealth. Real pros will have accumulated before the price spike started.

For those who don't know how the MMs work, what we saw on the EL news was a suckers rally. In other words the price is suddenly ramped up by the MMS and then allowed to drop like a stone straight afterwards. It's just a tree shaking for those who buy on news. There had already been a decent rise a few weeks before the EL RNS which presumably factored in the news, so the sudden spike in the price when the EL news broke was designed to catch out thoise who have no idea how MMs work...that's how they make money.

Plus by dropping the price suddenly without any volume or news they can take out a load of stops. Fantastic ! More shares bought cheaply....

That's what MM manipulation is ! The whole point of stydying volume in volume spread analysis is to see what is really going on. If there is very little volume yet the price is moving sharply lower or higher then it's very oibvious that the wholesalers ie the MMs are manipulating the price. If you are a wholesaler of stocks and shares without enough shares of a particular company to meet future demand, then you might suddenly drop a share price in order to panic some people into selling cheaply to you due to their fear that their holding might be worth far less in the near future. That way you build up your wholesale share levels cheaply, and you can sell them on for a large profit when prices are quite a bit higher. This is how MMs make money !

At the end of the day, the MMs need to build up their wholesale levels of the stock ready for strong demand, and the easiest way to do that is to shake the tree, hit stops and panic weakholders into selling. No doubt they have already succeeded in the last few days...

When I first became interested in the stock market I read a book by Tom Williams called ' The Undeclared Secrets Of The Stockmarket ' which was to promote his software called Volume Spread Analysis. A lot of the book is devoted to explaining how the MMs manipulate the price of a stock. A typical example with TA is seeing ' test ' spikes at the bottom and ' telegraph pole ' spikes at the top - the former is to catch stops and shake weakholders out through dropping the price down suddenly, only for it to recover very quickly, and the latter is to suck people in through driving the price up and then dropping it suddenly - a ' suckers rally. ' If you watch technical analysis charts you can see these two things happening very frequently - especially with the indices.

So much negativity on here - just a month ago the share price was around 2.7p and if Heron had failed it would now be less than 1p most likely...then people would really have reason to moan. Right now we are in a holding pattern, made to look worse than it is by the very wide spread, which indicates that the MMs are trying to discourage buyers right now. Probably we are in a phase of Wyckoff/Tom Williams accumulation going on. Back in late 2009, during the financial crisis, the share price rocketed from 15p to about £2.00 in just 16 months or so. No doubt there were lots of doomsayers about back in late 2009 as well !