Member Info for investor33

Ibiza28 - thanks for clarifying.

The reason I bang on all the time about the MMs is because whether we like it or not, they are the big players in MATD right now. If they are buying £500,000 worth of shares in an accumulation phase they can drive the price up against themselves very easily. So they accumulate when the price falls back to the 2 to 3p support levels, which is a process which has been going on since at least 2014. And to really accumulate cheaply, they spike the price down suddenly ( usually on ' bad news ' ) to catch stops around the support levels, and also to shake out panicking weakholders who bought at the top of the last spike ( like Badprophet for example ! )

Right now these are the real movers of MATD - not Mr Smith buying £10,000 worth of shares on a given day. Maybe in the future there may be institutional money comes in, however this is not driving the price action right now. And don't forget, the MMs trade their own accounts as well - so in fact they are the biggest short term traders buying and selling MATD. The smart money so far has followed what they are doing in terms of accumulation and distribution ( the latter happens on the frequent price spikes )

I meant ' Ibiza28. ' Sorry for the typo.

Iibiza - 30% dilution still doesn't account for sudden surges from about 3p to 7or 8p and then just as dramatic sudden falls to the usual support levels. The default position is around support levels until there is an RNS or some type of news - in which case the price goes crazy for a short time, before dropping back to the support levels.

Doc83 - that manipulation when the Velo duster news came out was classic manipulation. A huge spike down to hit all the stops at a previous support level, and then a recovery within minutes. MATD was valued at £2 a share back in April 2011 without any exploitation licence. It wasn't hope that was driving the price back then so much as FOMO being stirred up deliberately. All the numerous spikes since 2011 with falls back to normal support levels have just been opportunities for those who accumulated at the support levels. FOMO and it's opposite - fear of losses can easily be stoked up by playing around with the price action. It's happening right now in fact - look at all the negativity on here....

In fact you could draw support and resistance lines on the chart going back to 2014, and you would see how entirely range bound the price action is. You could have traded this share very successfully for many years without even needing to know what the company is involved with. Lol.

I'm looking at a MATD candlestick/bar chart going back to 2014, as that's as far as it goes. What it shows me is that in all that time the price action has consistently fallen back to support levels of 2.5p to 3.5p. It's absolutely clear when looking at a monthly or weekly chart. At one stage it shot up to 40p a share in early 2017 without an exploitation licence - Doc83 how do you explain that ? Presumably that was all down to fundamentals ?

There have also been about 10 spikes during that time up to a maximum resistance level of about 10p - it will take a lot to break through those levels.

So what we are seeing right now is completely normal when you look at a long term chart. I wonder how many on here bother to even look at charts. It seems to me that most are completely obsessed with fundamentals, because they believe that it accounts for everything. In fact this is a range bound share which is pretty predictable when you look at a long term chart. I will take at least a third out on the next spike, as based on past performance the price will plunge again soon after the top of the next spike.

This range bound price action, with high volatility at the time of the spikes is perfect for the MMs and the short term traders !

Maybe take a look at MATD in different timeframes on here ;

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/MATD.LN/interactive-chart

@ master 82

Re ; "Looks like no oil this year. Absolute joke . Simple paperwork is turning out to be a nightmare."

In fairness to MB, he did mention in the last update that time was wasted because the Mongolians took the whole of July off, rather than just a week or two.

30% more buys than sells today, and no change in the share price. MM and short term trader accumulation phase going on...The last thing they want is the price to go against them whilst they accumulate.

Some still go on about the market determining everything though...as though fundamentals entirely dictate the price action. Presumably that's why the share price was 57 times higher at one stage when there was no exploitation licence.....and dilution does not in any way account for this.

@WOS

Possibly - let's all hope so. It is true that the price action can be played around with quite easily with relatively small volumes...

@WOS

Don't expect the price volatility to go away - even if and when a positive RNS update comes. In fact you will probably see a ridiculous amount of volatility when it does. And any semblance of ' bad news ' then expect another huge mark down to around the stop levels to allow the MMs to hoover up more cheap shares...

I don't believe that MATD will ever be a nice stable stock in terms of its price action, even if and when the company starts extracting oil. Nonetheless, I am hoping that it will all come good, and production will begin before the end of this year.

@badprophet

The share price has simply fallen back to a previous well established support level. It's a predictable pattern which has happened many times before, before the next sucker rally spike, which will come when the next positive RNS is released.

This is a volatile share - which is exactly what those trading it short term want. If you had bought and sold with the ' smart money ' which is currently driving the price action of MATD ( and has been for many years ) then you would already be more than 1000 % to 1,500 % in profit, which is the equivalent of a 35p to 50p share price today.

"Since it listed on AIM ' I meant to write....

@master82

"But with the attitude of our CEO it's a struggle and the market says it all"

Well the market valued MATD at £2 a share back in 2011 without an exploitation licence. How do you explain that ? Or 35 to 40p as recently as early 2017. Yes, there's been some dilution, but not enough to account for a share price which is one tenth of what it was in 2017.

The fact is that all the price action you have seen to date with MATD since it has been driven by manipulation of sentiment. That's what happens when you have a company which isn't making any revenue, and its shareholders hang on every snippet of news, and every RNS as though their lives depend on it. Meanwhile the short terms traders and the MMs ( who trade their own accounts as well ) get rich through simply trading the price volatility - which in the case of MATD is extreme. That's essentially what they care about - price volatility, not the future promise of this that or the other. And any RNS is great, as it creates just the kind of volatility which makes them instant profits.

The fact is that if you are a short term trader who had accumulated on the constant falls to the well established support levels, and if you had then unloaded them on all the numerous sucker rally price spikes, then you would already have made serious money without needing to even care whether MATD rerates to the upside if and when it finally extracts oil.

So I took a look at a monthly chart going back as far back as June 2013. When you look at a chart like this you can see the pattern very clearly - repeated spikes followed by dramatic fall backs to a support line around the 2.5p mark. So I counted 8 or 9 spikes in that period, with one major one to nearly 40p in Feb 2017 when there was no exploitation licence even. All the spikes were followed by equally dramatic and sudden falls back to the support levels. Five of the spikes created a strong resistance level at around 10p which it has bounced down from several times.

So this has been a game really for the ' smart money' ie the MMs and short term traders who trade in phase with where the smart money is - so for some a short term traders dream.

It's very obvious when you see a chart like this that the smart money has been accumulating at around the 2.5p level, and then distributing around the spikes. One accumulation phase lasted for the whole of 2020 and up to April 2021 with just one mini spike in June 2020 to 4.7p during that time, when the smart money offloaded shares that it had accumulated as low as 1.8p around March/April 2020 - so that's still around 250% profit. Nice work if you can get it...

So in summary you can see from a long term chart like this at least 5 long accumulation phases, followed by around 9 or 10 ' sucker rallies ' which locked in weakholders , so that they could then be shaken out when the price was suddenly dropped, or their stop losses hit. By the way, that artificial and very vicious price drop on 07/10/23 to 1.8p followed by a ' miraculous ' sudden recovery just a few minutes later, was a drop to previous support levels which is very obvious when you look at a long term chart. That's purely because the MMs knew that lots of stops were placed at around that level....

@ Velocoraptor - very well said.

Good to see that there are some sensible people who post on this board, amidst all the hysteria.

@ALGU

You are right - the interview was mildly positive, however any ' news ' creates an opportunity to play around with the price action, which we have seen time and time again with MATD over the years. That's why I bang on about it - the short term price action is dominated by this.

I don't blame the MMs for what they do - it's a very good business model. Most short term traders are using technical analysis, and of course support and resistance levels are a massive part of this. So stops are typically placed around historic support levels, ands the MMS know this and can even see where they are placed. It's a great business model to then take these stops out and buy cheaply without driving the price against yourself. Once you get another price spike of 6 or 7p on further ' news ' then they will unload them with 100% profit or more.

Until the company actually generates revenue then MATD will always be subject to this kind of extreme price volatility centered around ' news ' such as the recent MB interview. A sudden price spike sucks in buyers who then become weak holders when the price drops just as suddenly back to around 4p. We have had lots of ' sucker rallys ' in the last few years, and there will probably be a few more. Even when the oil is extracted and sold, I think there will still be a fair amount of price volatility. Just look at all the armageddon posts you are seeing now on here following that MB interview - this all helps the manipulation, as it spooks those weakholders who bought in at 6 or 7p this year.

A line got cut off there at the end of my last post for some reason. I meant to say ;

"At one point I was 60% underwater since I started buying MATD back in 2019, so I'm not too worried about a bit of MM manipulation and their scare tactics. "

In fairness to MB and the rest of the employees at MATD, we don't know what kind of effort or hours they put in, as non of us a privy to the behind the scenes work that goes on in their offices. It's all speculation when people say that MB or others are slacking. They may be frantically busy and working long hours. We just don't know.

So with that MB interview, which some might regard as ' news ' inevitably the MMs have used this to play around with the price action. Just another excuse to drop the price sharply and accumulate more shares cheaply by hitting any stops which were place around the 4p support level. If they bought large quantities suddenly to accumulate, the MMs would push the share price up against themselves - it would be a bit like that scene in Dad's Army where Manwaring bids for an orange in an auction, and finds that Pike who is trying to buy the orange for him has been bidding against him....Plus it creates a sense of panic to shake out any weak holders who spend every minute of every day fretting over their holding. At one point I was 60% underwater since I started buying M

@Ra11adw2

"I said it could to back to 1p-2p again short term, it went to 1p for 15 mins for no reason 8am few weeks ago, thats not normal for a stock thats been trading 3-7p last few months. "

It's easily explained by mm manipulation. Mms if they buy large quantities of stock will drive the price up against themselves. A way around this is to deliberately drop the price sharply under the cover of an RNS or some kind of news, so that they can hit as many stops as possible, and thereby purchase stock at rock bottom prices just before a strong move up. They have the advantage of seeing where the stops are placed - many people anyway tend to place them just below previous support levels. MMs are well aware of this fact. It's like taking candy off a child really - a guaranteed way of purchasing stock extremely cheaply, and the sharper the sudden marking down of the price the cheaper the stock they can buy, and the more of it they can buy without moving the price against themselves.

In fact it's not just AIM stocks such as MATD - even on charts of FTSE stocks you will see a sudden spike down on a bar chart like a reversed telegraph pole just before a strong move up. You see it with the various indices as well if you look at charts in pretty well any timeframe. I'm not sure how many people on here are into technical analysis - people only ever seem to talk about fundamentals and ' news. ' Looking at MATD in various timeframes on a bar chart or with candlesticks is quite interesting. IMO it's quite useful to do so, as this is the kind of thing that the short term traders - including the mms who trade their own accounts - are looking at.

Right now MATD's price action is dominated by what the mms do, and by the short term traders. You will never make proper sense of it until you can see this. Just be wary of what goes on in the event of any ' news' such as an RNS.

@WOS

Yes, thanks for the correction - it was indeed the V1 result which took it down to 2p for a few minutes, before it magically recovered to about 4.5p that morning. Of course the LP was already in the bag at that stage, however the mms were hell bent on picking up very cheap shares courtesy of all those handy stops which many had probably helpfully placed just below previous support levels....

@Hamm

Didn't you say that I must be crazy to talk about mm manipulation after that spike down to 2p on the day of the LP release ?