Member Info for investor33

@Ojay

It's very true that for now this is basically a short term traded share, and as I see it, it may stay that way for a while yet. Once the oil is flowing, and revenue coming in then hopefully it should be far more stable and kind to the LTHs. However there's an extreme volatility attached to the MATD share price that simply can't be accounted for by pure fundamentals, and that may continue in the future regardless oil and revenue. I just don't trust it, having watched it since 2019.

Bear in mind that the spikes in price volatility tend to happen around the time of the release of an RNS - that's when the mms ( who also trade their own accounts ) and the short term traders can maximise their profits. So for now I am allocating about a third of my holding to short term trading - hopefully exiting when there is another spike at the time of the next RNS. Of course for months there was all that talk that when the LP was granted that the share price would ' easily be in double figures.' Well right now the 6 to 7p level is a very strong resistance level.

After thinking hard about it it doesn't seem sensible for me to just leave it all in there when the share price can double or halve in just a few days. An RNS can drop and the price can shoot around all over the place - look at the sudden and brief spike down to 2p when the LP RNS was released. Someone could have bought in at about 1.8p over the winter, and then sold out at 7.3p at the peak of the highest spike this year. That's a return of about 400% Meanwhile, many LTHs are probably underwater right now, despite the granting of the LP.

Rapidly falling back to previous support levels despite very little volume. That's ideal for the mms to accumulate before their next spike on the release of an RNS to somewhere near the previous resistance levels so that the mms can then unload all that stock again. And maybe a nice spike down at about the time that an RNS comes out, so as to hoover up all the stops at rock bottom prices, thereby conveniently completing their accumulation phase just before a sudden move up...

Of course it's all down to fundamentals - that's why without an exploitation licence or the LP MATD was valued in early 2011 at about 45 times what it is valued at today....

I just dipped in again, and I see that the usual suspects are still bickering and arguing. Yawn.

Bottom line is that MATD has never been particularly kind to LTHs with frequent raises thrown in as well. If you had bought in on the last raise, and then sold at the peak of a recent 7.3p MM induced spike, then you would have realised a 350% profit. That's the same as a LTH with an average of 5P now requiring the SP to reach 17.5P in order to make the same profit. And the risk and stress would have been far lower for the short term trader.

It's all down to fundamentals of course - that's why MATD was valued at £2.00 a share back in April 2011 without an exploitation licence or the LP for Heron, and now with both of those in the bag it's worth just 4.75p. LOL.

@asher7

According to the rules stipulated by Doc83 nobody on here is supposed to declare how much of a holding they have, or what they paid for it. Lol.

@Doc83

I would say that people who throw around insults to people they don't know on a board like this probably score rather highly on the spectrum of narcissism. You come across consistently as the most unpleasant person on this board, and a rather superior one at that - which somewhat tallys with the fact that narcissists possess a a fundamental belief in being superior to other people. That ' doh ' comment to take an example, simply smacks of a sense of superiority...

And for your information, lots of people on this board have mentioned how many shares they have bought, and what their average is - it's not up to you to set down rules about what people can reveal or not reveal thank you very much. That sounds like controlling behaviour, which again is very telling...

"What makes some people unleash such disruptive and distressing comments? Psychologists have been stepping up research efforts to gain insight into the psychology of internet trolls. A 2017 study in Personality and Individual Differences found that cyber-trolls tend to have high levels of psychopathy and sadism in combination with low levels of empathy. They also are more likely to be male, and researchers call the perpetrators master manipulators who enjoy causing emotional pain and distress in others. A 2019 study further explored the minds of internet trolls and found that narcissism is a common trait. And a 2021 study focused on Facebook points to what’s known as the Dark Tetrad personality factors (narcissism, Machiavellianism, and sadism) as indicators of greater trolling behavior. "

"

In case some people don't understand what happened last Monday, this clips is well worth watching ;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DISjoYzCkLQ

If I had placed a stop before the open on Monday , then I would have lost approximately £20k in just a few minutes, and just before the price magically recovered to pretty much where my average is, in a very short period of time. Of course those who are unaware of what actually goes on sneer about MM ' conspiracy theories ' etc....

@Dozzawba

Thanks - interesting thoughts.

So in just three days we've had the company valued at a range of between 1.8p to 6.5p which is something like a 350% difference. I know that the crazy drop on the open yesterday was all about MM manipulation designed to hit stops, however this kind of nefarious activity was taken to a new level yesterday.

Although we may be heading towards relatively calmer waters ( that's not hard ! ) I still think that there will be a fair bit of price volatility to come in the lead up to, and just after RNS releases. So I have allocated a certain % of my holding to top slicing wherever I can. I think that it's just too stressful to leave it all in there and ride that likely volatility come what may. And the way things have gone in the past with MATD I wont count my chickens until oil is actually flowing and the company is bringing in some revenue at long last. From now on Mike Buck needs to just 100% focus on the task at hand , and not get distracted by anything else for the time being.

@conrad02

That's exactly what happened - though say it quietly please, as there are some on here who get extremely angry if anybody talks about MM manipulation.

Apparently MM manipulation doesn't actually happen with MATD, and the rational explanation is that the company on the open today was simply worth less than half what it was worth at the end of yesterday's session , and it was simply promptly revalued just a few minutes later at about twice that value again. Amazing what ' news ' does. LOL.

@Landicaamans

I tend to agree with that kind of price prediction - sounds about right to me.

I agree too that some of the future price predictions have been wildly unrealistic, which is what wishful thinking can do to people.

@Doc83

I have my 888,000 shares thank you, and I didn't let the MMs stop me out this morning. Nor have I let them shake me out in the past with sudden artificial drops....Keep believing though that everything is 'news ' driven in terms of short term price action, and that the market is just perfect....

@Doc83

Kettles and teapots come to mind in terms of what you wrote. If another point of view which doesn't tally with your worldview offends your ego then that's just too bad. Just ignore what I wrote or block me.

And by the way, you still haven't explained the second to last spike to 7.3p followed by a sudden fall in just 3 weeks to a support level of 3.4p on no news and with low volumes....

@Doc83

Your post has been reported as ' abusive ' by the way.

@Horult

That's exactly what I mean. Running at the stops is a very lucrative game - it allows accumulation at artificially low prices.

MMs are like any retailer - they need to hold a certain amount of stock in order to do business and ' make a market ' However also like any retailer, they want to purchase that stock as low as possible to reduce risk and maximise profits - hitting stops is a great way to do it. If they are low on stock and demand is high then a sudden sharp drop in price can do the trick through ' tree shaking ' some into selling and also allowing stops to be hit amongst those investors who are unwary of these kinds of price manipulations.

@WOS

I agree with you - I am happy with the long-term prospects following the LP news as well. Despite the Velo result today, MATD has been massively de-risked.

However, there will be a lot of these volatile price movements along the way in the next few months. Some people who placed stops have been robbed blind unfortunately by that huge manipulation. So AIM has to be navigated extremely carefully, with an awareness of artificial short term FOMO spikes, or sudden extreme price falls designed to scare and shake out weakholders and hit stops. For example if someone quite new to this had listened to Hamm on Thursday and bought at 6p on a wave of FOMO - ' guys don't miss out on this amazing opportunity, it will be 10p tomorrow ' and then today they had seen an open of 1.8p just imagine how they would have felt. They may have just panicked and sold the lot. That's my concern.

@Earlofaim

You would be correct if stop losses didn't exist. I warned people last week to watch out for the MMs trying to hit them....and I got some quite skeptical and even rude responses from a few people on here.

Gordonbennett1

The MMs can see where all the stops are and they hit them !

Imagine how you would feel if you were stopped out at say 2.5p and now magically the price has recovered to 4p just a few minutes later....

@avo333

This is why some companies refuse to list in the UK, because they feel that international MMs are rooking local investors.

Look at what happened to Jet2 last Thursday after its profits increased by about £730m compared to its last earnings - the MMs used the fact that the chairman was stepping down to mark it down by 11%....One person commented that if a pilot caught a cold the MMs would mark the company down on the open by 10%...As Tom Williams, the creator of volume spread analysis software always used to say ' news can seriously damage your wealth .' I met him a few times and discussed this kind of thing. It's worth reading what he used to write about and say said about the stock market and what the MMS get up to. His software was designed to create signals on the large downspikes just before a large move up.

Marked right down to 1.8p at the open in outrageous manipulation - I hope people took my advice to watch out for their stops.The MMs have had a field day hoovering them up.

If you look at a bar chart you will see a typical huge spike down just before the price moves up, so as to shake out the weakholders and hit the stops. ' News' such as Velo being a duster today is the cover and the trigger used for these kinds of shenanigans.

There's no manipulation going on though according to some.....LOL.

@Misterpositive

So today 10% down with only positive news in the background from last Thursday, no new news and more buys than sells.

I got some irate replies from Hamm and Doc83 when I pointed out the MM manipulation. The MMs can see the stops, and they are trading their own accounts, which includes shorting. For their short term trading they don't care about fundamentals - they just care about extreme volatility. That goes for all short term traders, and there must be many for something as volatile as MATD. Those who took Hamm's advice and jumped in at 6p on a wave of FOMO must be feeling sore right now - yet according to him you must be insane if you talk about MM shenanigans.

Honestly, some people posting on here should stay away from AIM for their own good, and even more importantly so that they don't do financial harm to other people who listen to what they post.