RE: 2.5 will be a distant memory16 Oct 2024 15:58
I am reasonably positive about Matd actually. I've waited since August 2019 for them to become a producer at long last, and I'm very happy about that, as will be all the other long suffering LTHs. Maybe if the company had told us earlier that the full cost of a well is $4m instead of $1.5 which turned out to be the drilling only element, then I would have sold up just prior to the raise when the LP was granted, and then gone back in much lower. Judging by the question posed in the presentation, investors up to then believed that the total cost of a well would be $1.5m.
If H2 is commercial then the picture becomes significantly better, however assuming that the results are good for H2 then my remaining reservations are ;
- We still haven't got the PC agreement fully over the line.
- I don't believe that PM will have $8m to spend on H3 & H4 come next May. Even if H2 is commercial, and they extract say 800 bopd from both, IMO that's till not going to pay for 2 more wells come next May. If it's only H1 in production over winter, then it's even more unlikely.
- A previous RNS stated that the reservoirs in this area are not predictable, so it's possible that there will be some dud $1.5m drills before they hit the oil in each Heron phase. Nobody on here seems to factor in this extra financial risk.
- The Saudis are not happy with the likes of Russia and Iraq and are threatening to crash the price of oil to around $50 per barrel.
- Whatever the total amount of oil is extractable from Heron, the fact is that right now PM only has a 5 year licence, and it would take decades to extract all the oil. And still neither governor has signed the provincial tripartite agreement in order to give PM an unlimited time period for Heron production. Therefore PM will have to hope that the district 5 year licence can be renewed each time - which means more Mongolian bureaucracy.
- The total cost of another 8 wells beyond Herons 1 and 2 is $32m plus the possible extra cost of any dud $1.5m drills in each phase, plus the cost of running the company for however many years.