Member Info for investor33

And if what PM's jerry said about the $4m for each Heron well turns out to be untrue, then I guess we can all call him a deramper...Lol.

"Company never said each well will cost 4 million, they said H1 cost 4 million "

Factually untrue. PM's Jerry stated clearly in the presentation that the $4m is in his exact words ' for each Heron well ' not for just Heron 1. And he also pointed out that a drilling isn't guaranteed - so there is the possibility of a $1.5m being wasted.

It would be good if we knew how big the Petrovis ' soft loan ' facility is. It might be $1m or it might be $10m for all we know. I personally think that this will be the best option in order to develop H3 & H4 - after all, Petrovis is the parent company of PM, and PM is its subsidiary.

Maybe there is enough money left from the last raise to be added to any profit from H1 and hopefully H2 over 5 months or so of winter to fully finance H3 and H4 come next May, but I doubt it, given that $8m will be required. And the company needs to keep the lights on and to pay the wage bill whilst all this is happening.

As I've said before on here, there are two conflicting pressures on the oil price right now. And I'm certainly not hoping for outright war in the Middle East so that I can get richer with my PM shares ;

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-war-economy-pain-saudi-arabia-sink-global-oil-prices-energy-russia-opec/

I've posted before about the Saudis - but nobody even commented about this factor. Of course I'm hoping that the price of oil stays reasonably high, whilst also hoping that the Middle East situation doesn't escalate.

In fact before the last raise, I used to second a lot of what WOS was saying - ie no raise coming etc. Then I woke up one day to find that from being in profit I was now about 40% underwater. So having had my fingers burnt badly once, I am now uber careful before I listen unquestioningly to the happy clapper brigade. And I am now very careful about whether the figures stack up and I want to look at every financial factor in detail - even if the more childish on here ( who probably first turned up after the raise ) label me as a ' deramper .' It's called doing due diligence. By the way, I don't believe that the varying opinions on here have any material effect on the share price.

" and a Sterling sign in Overner's figures " I meant. Difficult to type on my phone.

Hamm ; I think it's you that needs a Dummies book given that you seemingly can't tell the difference between a Dollar sign and a Sterling in figures....It's up there with your infamous ' guys there's no risk ' statement months before the Mongolian district committee had even met to finally vote on the land access after years of frustration...

And I wont bother trying to explain the difference to you between day trade scalping using chart technical analysis, with fundamentals being of minor importance, compared to the medium to long term investment based on fundamentals that people on this board are mainly doing. I doubt if you even know what a day trade scalper is anyway.

And how do you know how much money the company has right now ? Especially as you never seem to take into account the costs of running the business, including the wage bill. MB alone is getting $25k a month...

And the consensus seems to be that they will not be turning the valves fully open initially - H1 will likely be flowing initially at about 300 bopd - not 500. Same with H2 most likely if it's similar. And then deduct the operational costs of running the business, including wages, which you never seem to factor in as you seem to think that everybody works for free.

Richar ; "I invested 2010 2012."

Fair enough.

Richar ; invested since August 2019 actually. And with about 15 tranches in total.

I guess you're another who turned up when the last raise was announced ?

Adw198 ;

"I suppose one might optimistically interpret that not all wells would be $4m as he referenced infrastructure but on the whole it seems clear and most of this board, especially those most confident, are unaware of the $4m cost. "

It's unbelievable really. People have been touting figures starting from $1m per well, and most seem unsure. That question was asked in the presentation as up to then we had been given the impression that the cost is $1.5m per well.

By the way, I would have thought that the solution to H2 & H3 would be to finally use the much lauded Petrovis soft loan facility at long last. I presume that the reason that it hasn't been touched so far is because the company has had no income to speak of. This plus any net profit from H1 ( after deducting the monthly cost of sales ) and hopefully H2 over winter might do the trick.

I'm thinking that after the monthly operational costs ( wages and other costs ) are deducted from H1's profit and based on an initial 300 bopd the company might be left with say about $200k to 220k per month. So H1 and H2 combined might be around $500,000 per month net profit initially. I'm not sure how the MG corporation tax will work - there are plenty of losses to offset this from previous years one would imagine.

Of course we don't know what the monthly wage bill is right now, but we know that MB receives $300k per annum. The total wage bill must be quite a large expense, and then shortly you have the wage bill of the total workforce at the sites to include.

@Adw198 ; " Anyone with a long term position position must surely be all over these figures, especially if bullish. How else do people assign value? "

Exactly. I've been a LTH since 2019 ( probably way before this abzzba arrived on the scene ) and I feel that I was too accepting of what was said prior to the last raise ie fully funded until next year, we have the Petrovis soft loan facility etc. So I feel that I failed to protect my ( pretty large ) investment investment at the time. The idea is to learn from mistakes and not repeat them a second time. Of course, WOS and others were screaming that there would be no raise....

Re the presentation, it's ; Https://youtu.be/5gQv3uwTPXk?si=ypSD0WjmorihrFMw and at 1:07.

This abzzba by the way was adamant that the total cost of a well is just $2.5 m and then accuses me of factual inaccuracies to suit an agenda....This is on top of accusing me of talking about 65 cents a barrel which was a comment made by another poster in the context of how the market is currently valuing PM's oil. This guy really is the master of factual inaccuracy !

Hamm ; you talk about the net profit per month but seem to exclude the running costs of the company each month ie the cost of sales. Plus I believe that we were told somewhere that the valves would only be turned on so as to extract about 300 barrels per day. It's not going to start with 500 bopd per well.

Don't forget too that right now that PM has a licence for 5 years - the tripartite agreement has still not been signed by the previous or new governor. When the company is valued this is a factor. I'm not even sure when the 5 years starts from. 10 wells may be able to extract the oil for say the next 30 years, however the company doesn't have permission to do this as it stands. If the company was bought out then this would need to be resolved, and the issue has been ongoing now for years.

Hamm ; "As I said that was drilling costs."

Fine - however knowing the cost of just drilling a hole is pretty useless. To extract the oil through developing the well all the rest of the work needs to be done, which in total costs $4m including the drilling.

Hamm ; it's at 1:07.

So the presentation states that the $1.5m cost is for literally just drilling the hole and evaluating the results. The $4m is for everything to make the well productive ; stimulating the well, testing it, installing the surface infrastucture including the tanks and then getting it to flow.

Thanks Hamm.

WOS ; " Spend less time Preaching about MM - More time researching actual Petro Matad investment! "

Maybe spend more time figuring out how Matd are likely to finance the $32m or so required in order to develop 10 wells given that monthly income initially for H1 and H2 combined is likely to be around $540,000 minus the cost of sales and any MG corporation tax ( the latter if applicable - it might be offset against past losses )

WOS ; "If you check Investor Meet Presentation (RNS 10th July) - Operation Director answer this Q very clearly.Drill cost - $1.5M. Total Cost (Inc drill) - $4M "

Ok - so you have just contradicted the $2.5m stated by ' abzzba ' who was accusing me of being factually inaccurate . And whilst we are about it, also ; Thornogson ( $1m ) Researchandhold ( $1m to $1.5m ) Hamm ( $1m to $1.5m ) ,Are you going to tick them off for not doing enough research as well ?

Anyway, how do you propose that Matd are going to finance the $32m required in order to develop all 10 wells, given that H1 and 2 will result in profit of about $11m combined based on $30 per barrel and 1000 barrels per day ? That's $11m minus all the costs of running the business of course ( the cost of sales ) . And these figures are based on production for 365 days a year, which I'm not yet 100% sure is feasible. 340 days per year of production for example would result in profit of around $10m minus the cost of sales and any tax.

WOS ; and what's your opinion on the true cost of a well, so that I can add it to the list ?

Abzzba ; in the interests of the accuracy which you seem to believe you have some kind of monopoly on, could you state where you saw me talk about Matd's profit on a barrel being valued at 65 cents ? Actually, I've worked on a basis of $35 Dollars per barrel, which is about $5 Dollars more than some on here have used in their calculations.

And I'm not sure how long you have been invested for - but in my case it's been since 2019, and I own about 1.5 million shares. Maybe give us all an idea of the size of your holding and for how long before accusing me of being a deramper ? Actually, had I questioned the state of the finances a bit more when MB was telling us that they were funded into next year, and that they had the Petrovis soft loan facility at hand, then I might not have got caught out by the last raise....Once bitten twice shy and all that.

And as for the cost of a well, so far we've had the following opinions on here ;

Thornogson ; " I think drilling costs per well are of the order of $1m? "

Unnd ; "1. Drill each well - $1.5m 2, Drill, stimulate and complete each well - $4m.

Researchandhold ; " Just to correct you as you said - each new well costs between $1 mill and $1.5 mill each. "

Adw198 : "If it’s $4.5m to get a well up and running as quoted for Heron2, it certainly sounds like a raise would be needed to further explore, hence the DQE suggestion being sensible. " and " 1, Heron 1 stimulate and complete - $2.5m 2, Heron 2 drill, stimulate and complete - $4m."

Hamm ; "Mb has said several times that $1 to 1.5 m is the cost of any drilling."

abzzba ; "so 2.5 million to drill, test and complete then it starts spewing out black gold. "

So that's all crystal clear then...Lol.

Proquo ; that's quite a strange post by you. Not sure who you were talking about, but I think that the LTHs are all entitled to a point of view without being shamed for it, or being labelled a deramper. And that includes Doc. It's called debate, and people shouldn't be shamed for engaging in debate, and sometimes expressing doubt - that kind of group think stifling of debate is what happens in regimes such as Russia, China and North Korea.

And anyway, weren't you stating in a post just yesterday that a share price on AIM is often not related to fundamentals but is set by the MMs for their own ends ? And then today you go and quote a load of reasons to do with the fundamentals to justify being 100% positive, and that people who express caution or even doubt are " half-headed oiks who think they are cleverer than they are. " Very strange thinking....

Hamm ; anybody with any common sense would realise that it's critical to know whether a new well will cost $1.5m or $4.5m.Nobody seems to be sure about this. Clearly it makes all the difference in the world as to how the future roll out of Heron will be financed.

H1 and 2 producing around 1000 bopd would give about $1m per month in profit before tax after all the various deductions. I wonder what the monthly running costs of this company are ? I guess you then have all the day to day production costs of the salaries of the workers at the site etc on top of the existing 16 Matd staff.

Thanks for your thoughts Adw198 and Unnd.

So to properly develop Heron Buck will either have to sort out a JV with PC ( probably most likely ) or some kind of agreement with DQE. Or more raises ( plural I would say ) in which case investors would be diluted down to very little.