Member Info for investor33

CJ1986 ; like many others ( including myself ) you just got in too early. Hindsight is easy - but the only good time to buy in really was when production had finally started. And ideally once winter is starting to be over as well. However, this doesn't mean that the prospects for the next few years are poor - quite the opposite in fact.

We live and learn, however the fact is that many of us were way premature in terms of getting in at the right time. What's important is to learn and to then not repeat mistakes.

CJ1986 ; it was really the rogue ex provincial governor who was the " Mongolian authority problem. " The tripartite agreement which would have given the land a special purpose designation had already been signed by PM and the MG, however this governor refused to sign it. And now ironically it seems that in his new post he is all about promoting foreign investment in Mongolia !

In fairness, the authorities did helpfully do away with a planning permission previously necessary so as to allow the infrastructure on H1 to be installed quickly. Otherwise no oil would have been extracted over winter.

What a hypocrite that " Doc " is - given that he seems to spend every hour of every day on here arguing about " an AIM Mongolian oiler. " Why's it so important to him one asks oneself ?

He's often on here daily at about 7am and then he's usually still posting late into the evenings. And most of his weekends as well...And all this for just an "AIM Mongolian oiler... "

Actually, it was hilarious to read the outrage in Doc:s reply when I suggested that if it came to it Petrovis should simply up their stake in the company at the current open market price.

He was almost foaming at the mouth, and for me he kind of gave the game away with the indigency of his reaction.

Either he, or whoever he might be working for are clearly desperate to get in on another raise...

All the raise fanatics are carrying on the legacy of that " professional" individual, who suddenly magically vanished straight after the last raise in June 2024, and was never heard of again...

Very likely though he has reincarnated under a different user name on here....

And " they'll be a raise " was misspelt as well.

Says it all really....

.

" God speed 3p krok so you f**k off 🥱 "

Hear, hear....!

" all the borders being shut " I meant to write.

Krok is yet another example of someone who seems to have no understanding of typical price action - that's very common amongst the negs. In every single year to date there has been a minimum difference between the low and high of the year of 100 to 350 % In the odd year a lot more than that - 2017 or 2018 for example.

Krok ; given that even in the covid year of 2020 the share price still managed to go from 2.5p to 4.8p at one point, despite all the borders shut, with no legal access to the land granted and with no idea if and when production could ever start at Heron, I would suggest that it's you who is deluded.

I bet you've never bothered to even study the price action over the years with this company.

And anyway, if Heron is sold to PC then what do you think that will do to the share price ?

Email ; I presume from what you wrote you have no idea that MATD have been in talks to sell the field - as confirmed in the last RNS ? Has it dawned on you that this might have some bearing given that the talks about a sale have been with PC ?

Doc ; "Here’s an idea. Why don’t Petrovis and/or the directors buy some shares on the open market? That positive sentiment from them would propel the SP far north of what it is now."

Such a dumb comment. How would Petrovis purchasing shares on the open market help fund further operations at Heron ? Petrovis increasing their share of the company from 17.5% through buying at the current open market price would be an enabler for further development of Heron. That would automatically boost the share price.

You make too much of the no of shares that have been issued, and dilution. You need to also think about how many individuals and entities actually hold shares, and whether they are likely to sell them anytime soon.

If you deduct Petrovis' holding, what the MMs hold, plus the amounts that the likes of MB hold ( around 17m ) then you are talking about maybe one thousand million shares in private hands ( ie one billion ) At an average of 1m shares each ( some will have more, some will have less ) that's around one thousand individuals holding MATD shares - that's absolutely miniscule compared to say a large cap such as BP or Shell. And many of those are holding on for the long term - maybe 2 to 5 years.

Anyway, this probably academic, as I don't think that there will be another raise. I think we will get an announcement of a JV soon, or else an announcement that the field is being sold to PC. Even if none of that happened ( highly unlikely ) chances are that H1 will soon be producing much more, which over time could finance any future development of Heron.

Doc ; try and understand ; what I wrote ;

"Also, Petrovis wouldn't dump any shares in the near future. Another reason why the issuance of any further shares should only be taken up by Petrovis. The more shares that are in the possession of very sticky hands the better for the future share price, as it limits supply, allowing a supply/demand imbalance to happen. "

Don't you understand that if you ensure that further shares are in the hands of an entity which wont sell in the near future, then this has major implications for future supply and demand ratios ? It's a big supply/demand imbalance that would cause this share to price to rocket upwards after some kind of a news catalyst.

Besides, institutions will only buy in on a raise if they are given a large discount to the current open market share price. Petrovis wouldn't need this most likely. Allowing a few hundred private investor shareholders to lower their average through allowing the share price to take a big hit would be ridiculous.

Your reaction to what I wrote suggests to me that you badly want to lower your average on another raise.....LOL.

Also, Petrovis wouldn't dump any shares in the near future. Another reason why the issuance of any further shares should only be taken up by Petrovis.

The more shares that are in the possession of very sticky hands the better for the future share price, as it limits supply, allowing a supply/demand imbalance to happen.

Even if there was a raise ( which is unlikely ) it can be done in different ways. IMO the best option would be simply to issue more shares for Petrovis, so as to increase its % of the ownership of the company from its current 17.5%.

And it could be done at the current open market price, given that its near historical lows still.

This would give an immediate boost to the share price, given that the extra funds act as an enabler for operations. So Petrovis would get a quick uplift on its investment. It's a no brainer really if it came to this.

One possible problem with that last raise is that it's feasible that an entity may have bought a large number by proxy ( most likely ) which has subsequently allowed it to artificially suppress the share price. If an entity buys say 100 to 150 million shares by proxy, then it can keep a lid on the share price through selling blocks of 500k shares here and 1m blocks there at strategic moments.

For this reason, any future raise must be kept in-house - and Petrovis after all is the parent company.

Unnd ; thanks for confirming Petrovis' holding of the share base.

My point remains the same though - I doubt if there's barely more than a thousand private investors holding MATD shares, and most of those shares are in very sticky hands.

Proquo ; in other words you fit the profile of the type of private investor that I mentioned in my post - around 1m shares, and holding for several years most likely.

Now imagine that there are only say 900 private investors in total, who also own an average of around 1m shares. And around half of them are thinking like you. And out of the remaining 450, many are LT bagholders who will only sell when they break even. And those who aren't bag holders have set price targets of between say 7p to 20p.

It's very easy therefore to see how the MMs after news breaks can be caught with barely any shares left in their inventories, and with few shares available on the supply side. Hence a sudden chronic imbalance between supply and demand can happen at the blink of an eye.

Going back to my earlier post speculating about very roughly how many individuals might hold MATD shares, I would be interested to hear other people's thoughts. To me this is quite a big factor which never gets discussed. It's one thing for the negs ( like Adw ) to bleat on about the 1.4 billion shares in issue, but it's hugely important to get an idea of how many entities/ people actually own all these shares.

We know that Petrovis owns about 25% of them - so they will not sell anytime soon. Only if there is a takeover.

MMs have to hold a certain no in their inventories - we don't know how many however.

I don't think that any institutions currently own any significant no of shares.

There are some individuals with relatively large holdings - MB with about 15m for example.

My guess is that the total no of individuals holding MATD shares is actually in the hundreds - not even the thousands. 1.1m ( one thousand one hundred million ) shares after you discount Petrovis' slice would mean one thousand one hundred holders if each holder has an average of 1m shares. However, discount what the MMs hold, plus those individuals like MB with very large holdings, in which case we could be talking say just 800 or 900 private individual holders of MATD shares. That's barely the size of a small UK village.

This is important, because if most of those privately held shares are in the hands of people who will not sell until the price level reaches their target price, then a chronic imbalance between supply and demand can quickly happen. And there wont be any supply coming from the 25% held by Petrovis.

Abzzba ; " Investor, you are 100% correct that all this started in October last year, thats when the bashers arrived, it was after their arrival that i started posting heavily in an attempt to counter their lies/half truths and general FUD posts, i first bought into MATAD in 2018 but until October posted on here once in a blue moon."

You've been doing a good job providing factual information by someone with actual experience in the oil industry.

Going back to the hypothetical one thousand one hundred owners of MATD shares - this is why a micro cap's share price can suddenly rocket.

MMs have their inventories, however if there is suddenly huge demand, and the relatively tiny number of share holders are holding on for much higher prices, then the MMs will run out of stock very quickly. They then have no other option but to massively hike the share price so as to loosen those sticky hands. And Petrovis ( with 25% of all the shares in issue ) probably wont sell in the near term too.

TenBag ; like I said - something happened once the local consent was granted, and it became apparent that MATD would move to being a producer.

One also has to wonder whether that governor was being paid by someone....