The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
HE1 co-founder now at Pulsar Helium now drilling in the USA details how long next steps will take them after drilling into what they believe is a conventional reservoir.. HE1 I believe has something unique and unconventional so timelines would be different at a guess
https://www.mesabitribune.com/mine/pulsar-helium-has-high-hopes-for-babbitt-area-project/article_61e80472-ccdc-11ee-8224-63bbd562704f.html
Extracts below from article referring to current Pulsar drill in the USA
"It would be a conventional vertical hole that goes down into a reservoir and the gas would come up"
"Results from the current drill hole were expected in about a month, he said in mid-February.
A resource calculation could take several more months and a feasibility study longer, he said.
“By the end of this year we should know how it’s looking,” Abraham-James said. “We should have a good feel then whether it’s worth proceeding.”"
Noble NHE now 9c so only 10% off its recent all time low of 8.2c as Australian investors left to a degree maybe after they didn't declare an official discovery.. They can still turn it around potentially with their activities planned after the wet season.
GHY however has gone from like 20c to 30c a few months ago to $1.65 today.. 80% + hydrogen 2U 1.3b kg and upto 6.8% helium 2U about 40bcf of helium.. Flow-testing in March will be vital for them..
So GHY an interesting one to watch in March maybe it's already had its major run up I'd say and then can they prove commerciality of hydrogen and/or helium via flow testing? Porosity might be a question mark so time will tell
In a H&P research report they assumed 4.2% for the P50 case and four horizons the Upper Lake Beds, Lower Lake Beds, Red Sandstone Group and Karoo White Sands were considered to get unrisked target volumes.
P50 unrisked per H&P assuming the above was 5.4bcf of helium at Itumbula I believe
So H&P was indicating 5.4bcf of helium at Itumbula P50 unrisked potential in the zones above the basement? Or inclusive of the basement?
The 4.7% flowed to surface from basement due to heat maybe at those depths?
So hard to say can they extract helium from zones above the basement where there aren't hot fluids to the same extent? And how much helium in the basement zone in the hot fluids?
I'd just be guessing hard to say given the above?
Sorry just seen you updated your calculations which match what I'm saying
Mate 4mmcf/day is 4000mcf of raw gas per day as m is Roman numerals for thousand..
So 4000 x 0.0095 x price per mcf to get daily helium revenues at 0.95% helium in the raw gas
But yes agree that's a great flow rate which is key along with the helium concentration for any well..
Yeah mate I'm just sceptical of anything CEOs talk up going by the stats.. How many explorers are successful and make it through to being a producing mine or gas plant etc.. ?? Very few so all these explorers talk themselves up with words like "de-risked" etc.. and can be more liberal in what they say in interviews etc.. then in official rns documents..
Still money to be made even in stocks that don't make it if timed right.. HE1 ipo for instance 2.8p approx then rose to 28p approx.. Then shorters could of made plenty as it sunk to 0.16p eventually and then it risen back up as high as 3.7p..
So opportunities to make money and time will tell long term if HE1 is one of the few to make it to production..
First major step that will get real industry interest in my opinion is declaring an official discovery in an RNS..
"Question in this thread: "WHEN IS A PROJECT DE-RISKED?" In the life cycle of a Junior Explorer, this is the PERIOD of drilling , ...leading to DISCOVERY. "
So it's all speculation until they confirm an official discovery in an RNS?
In terms of an explorer there are risks until commercial reserves have been proven up as per the SPE link.. Then the risks of building a plant and commodity price risk so nothing is entirely de-risked until for instance the plant is running and profitable..
Minchin or any ceo talking up something being de-risked doesn't mean much at an early stage HE1 then went from 28p to 0.16p even though they said it was derisked??
https://www.spe.org/en/industry/petroleum-resources-classification-system-definitions/
Noble DID NOT declare a discovery once they got lab results back.. Do your own research at the link and you quickly see NHE Noble have released their lab results. Then the link to a comment on hotcopper may explain why Noble did not declare a discovery even with lab results back
https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/NHE
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/he1-update.7709590/page-82?post_id=72303473
PS When will HE1 mention the word "discovery" in an rns ? Why are they diverting attention from lab results as they should confirm a siscovery? Or like Noble will they not declare a discovery once lab results are back and have more to do in hopes of successfully confirming a discovery officially?
@news Noble quoting US300m for a plant and US50m was quoted by HE1 years ago under Minchin..
Anyway both Noble and HE1 haven't declared a discovery yet officially and what they have is unconventional it appears..
Lorna I think said something like they need to cost up what a production facility could look like yesterday basically from scratch at a guess if what they have is unconventional versus previous assumptions on a conventional style operations?
I think IACX can lease out units to separate out gaseous helium or you can buy your own production unit facility for about US$20m.. These produce output of gaseous helium only and not liquid helium.
However due to the 1 to 745 expansion ratio of gaseous helium to liquid helium at -269°C which need plenty of power to liquify the helium you transport helium in liquid helium form..
Short distances where gaseous helium might be able to be compressed a bit no doubt happens in the USA to transport to a close by liquifier or to customers after gaseous helium..
Tanzania is in the middle of nowhere so liquefying I understand is their goal in order to ship over long distances PSA if it only produces output of gaseous helium are there enough gaseous helium customers nearby in Africa?
Https://www.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-cash-market/announcements.nhe
6 Nov 23 announcement - Noble big talk from Noble they had what looks like a discovery but needed lab results to confirm a discovery
7 Feb 2024 - Noble get labs results but do not declare a discovery and their shareprice struggles.. Noble have more work to do in order if successful to declare a discovery..
So interesting HE1 carefully did not mention the word discovery in their Feb 5 rns and trying to divert attention away from the importance of the lab results but when will HE1 mention the discovery word in some context in an RNS ?
Maybe a bit gun shy HE1 as they saw how nhe stuffed it up badly talking up a discovery then not having a discovery once lab results were back..
Just doubled checked Feb 5 RNS the word discovery was not mentioned... So she is saying discovery verbally but not in an rns ??
Bit strange from an oil and gas standpoint to be talking its a discovery before confirmed in an rns ?
Should be saying potentially or we think likely to be confirmed a discovery in their opinion.. ??
Https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/GHY
GHY Gold Hydrogen helium prospective resource out
GHY AUD158m marketcap
2U = 43bcf of helium
2U = 1.3 billion kg of hydrogen
Located in Australia
GHY have hit 6.8% helium and 86% hydrogen I think it was and flow testing soon I believe
HE1 £75m marketcap
2U = 138bcf helium prospective resource
2U hydrogen unknown at this stage
Located in Tanzania
HE1 has hit 2.2% hydrogen and 4.7% helium
Https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/GHY
GHY Gold Hydrogen helium prospective resource out
2U 43bcf of helium
Mean 96bcf of helium
That's is in addition to about 1 billion kg of hydrogen prospective resource I think it is where they hit over 80% hydrogen concentrations
Natural or gold hydrogen can be produced for $1 or $2 per kg and sell for $10/kg I believe.
Green hydrogen costs about $5 per kg to produce I believe so not as profitable if also sold for about $10 per kg.
GHY prospective hydrogen resource about 1 billion kg and tomorrow I think they release their prospective resource for helium. If HE1 gets a hydrogen prospective resource soon then you can compare the two GHY and HE1 in more detail.
I think the global helium market is 6bcf per year so less than US10b/yr whilst the hydrogen market is expected to be over US200b in the next few years
When HE1 announced it hit hydrogen I did say it could be similar to GHY.
But 2.2% hydrogen from HE1 pales in significance versus the 86% hydrogen GHY hit.. See the link.. HE1 might still make something of the 2.2% but it's not over 80% hydrogen like GHY - Gold Hydrogen listed on the asx
https://www.listcorp.com/asx/ghy/gold-hydrogen-limited/news/very-high-concentrations-of-hydrogen-found-at-ramsay-2-2973785.html
Noble sent samples to Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in the USA Massachusetts.. Yes a few days off for Xmas etc.. but the US main holidays are in their summer.
Noble just stuffed up the process with customs etc.. I reckon and used holidays as an excuse.. They got results much faster on their second well
"You then need to sort out logistics for dangerous chemicals"
Hmmm yes maybe Hydrogen needs special processes in place for transport.
As I posted on the other thread on lab results it took Noble 3 months to get results back on their first well.. In a video they admitted they just assumed it would be a quick and simple process but customs etc. made it take longer than expected.. They got better when sending out samples from the second well and reported results for both wells about 3 months after sending out samples of the initial well the second well sent sometime in the interim..
Noble RNSs at the link
6 Nov 2023 RNS - Mbelele-1 preliminary results where it states further lab analysis is needed to confirm a helium discovery
Noble finally got lab results Feb 7 RNS but did not declare a discovery.
So it took 3 months for Noble to get the results from their first well but a bit less for the second well as I think they got all their lab results for both wells at once..
Noble didn't declare a discovery so interesting to see if HE1 declare a discovery given they did flow some helium to surface whilst Noble did not. But what's under the ground could be all part of the same system for both Noble and HE1..
https://www.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-cash-market/announcements.nhe
"and reference Helium 1 As they depressurised their well "they had Helium exsolving from the water and flowing to surface as well."
So the question is how easy is it to extract the helium from the water? NHE are off doing research with the Uni of Qld on that question. Where is HE1 at in this regard proving they can extract the helium from the water at a commercial rate in terms of quantity and flow-rate?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solubility_table
As per the solubility table it's max 0.6% helium in water it appears for reference? That's 0.6% in water not 0.5% in gaseous free gas form that people are referencing as the commercial threshold? Much easier to get free gas to rise to the surface versus helium in water?